Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley Predictions
FA Cup · England
Barton Town Old Boys
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Chorley
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley: Match Preview
Barton Town Old Boys enter this FA Cup tie with momentum, having won back-to-back home matches in the competition and conceding just once in three Cup outings this season. Their form string of 'WWDLW' and a current two-match winning streak highlight their defensive solidity, with two clean sheets and only one failed attempt to score in their last five. Chorley, from a higher division, arrive on the back of a 1-0 away Cup win, but their recent away form is mixed, with two defeats and one win in their last three on the road.
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-to-moderate scoring contest. Barton's season average of 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game in the Cup is offset by Chorley's 1.6 scored and 2 conceded over their last five, but just 1 goal scored and none conceded in their single Cup tie. Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in two of their last three Cup matches, and Barton's clean sheet rate of 67% in the Cup suggests a disciplined defensive approach at home. With no shot or possession data available, the analysis leans heavily on these scoring and concession rates.
The model expects Chorley's higher league status to give them a marginal edge, but Barton's home defensive record and ability to keep games tight make this a close contest. The likeliest scorelines are 1-2 or 1-1, with the draw probability (32%) narrowly behind the away win (41%). Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 56%, reflecting the recent Cup patterns and both sides' tendency to keep things tight in knockout football.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley that most previews miss.
- 1Barton Town Old Boys have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their FA Cup matches this season.
- 2Chorley have failed to score in two of their last five matches, both away from home.
- 3Under 2.5 goals has landed in two of Barton's three FA Cup games and in Chorley's only Cup tie this season.
Who do you think wins: Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
The model gives a 32% probability to the draw, the highest of the three outcomes, reflecting both sides' tendency for close matches and Barton's home resilience (two clean sheets in three FA Cup ties).
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
The under 2.5 probability is 56%, supported by both teams' season averages (Barton: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded; Chorley: 1 scored, 0 conceded in the Cup), and only one of Barton's last three FA Cup games going over 2.5.
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More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley Prediction
A statistical clash between a lower-league home side with a strong defensive Cup record and a National League North visitor whose away form is inconsistent but whose underlying rates suggest a narrow edge. The goal environment projects as moderate, with neither side showing a sustained trend for high-scoring games, and the likeliest outcomes cluster around 1-2 goals for Chorley. The model expects a tight contest, with the away side's higher league pedigree reflected in the probabilities, but Barton's home record and defensive numbers keep the contest close.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Barton Town Old Boys have conceded just once in three FA Cup matches this season, keeping two clean sheets.
- →Chorley have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2 conceded over their last five in all competitions, but only one clean sheet in that span.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in two of their last three Cup matches.
How Barton Town Old Boys and Chorley Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Barton Town Old Boyslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Chorleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Barton Town Old Boys are in strong Cup form, winning two of their last three and conceding just once in that span. Chorley's recent results are mixed, with a win and two losses in their last three away games, but they did secure a 1-0 victory in their most recent Cup outing.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Things to Watch: Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment and EV calculations are limited.
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data for direct comparison; model relies on Cup form and derived stats.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes for both teams in the current FA Cup season may inflate the impact of recent results.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Barton Town Old Boys 1–2 ChorleyThe model calls this 2-1 to Chorley, with the single strongest data point being Barton's defensive record in the Cup (0.33 conceded per game) against a side averaging 1.6 goals scored but 2 conceded in their last five. The main risk is underestimating Barton's home advantage and defensive discipline, which could see them frustrate Chorley and force a replay.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley: Common Questions
Who will win Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley?
Chorley are given a 41% probability to win, compared to 27% for Barton Town Old Boys and 32% for the draw. The higher-league visitors are marginal favourites, but Barton's Cup form keeps the contest close.
Will both teams score in Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley?
The model gives a 47% chance for both teams to score and a 53% chance for at least one clean sheet. Barton's strong Cup defensive record and Chorley's occasional away blanks suggest BTTS is only slightly less likely than not.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is favoured at 56% probability, based on both teams' recent Cup matches and their season scoring/conceding rates.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.