Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley Predictions
FA Cup · England
Barton Town Old Boys
Full Time
1 - 4
AI predicted 1 - 2
Chorley
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.5/10Chorley Cruise Past Barton Town with Ruthless First-Half Blitz
Chorley delivered a commanding performance to defeat Barton Town Old Boys 4-1 in the FA Cup, effectively sealing the tie with a devastating three-goal burst before halftime. The visitors struck in the 35th, 37th, and 40th minutes, leaving Barton reeling and with a mountain to climb after the break. Chorley added a fourth just after the hour mark, extinguishing any hopes of a comeback despite a late consolation from the hosts in stoppage time. Barton Town Old Boys struggled to cope with Chorley's intensity and attacking quality, only finding the net in the 90th minute when the contest was already decided. With no bookings or dismissals, the match was played in good spirit, but the gulf in class was evident as Chorley progressed with ease.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 4
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
35' — Goal
Chorley open the scoring, beginning a devastating spell of attacking play.
37' — Goal
Chorley double their lead just two minutes later, catching Barton Town off guard.
40' — Goal
Chorley make it three before halftime, effectively putting the tie out of reach.
61' — Goal
Chorley add a fourth, extinguishing any faint hope of a Barton Town comeback.
90' — Goal
Barton Town Old Boys score a late consolation goal.
Barton Town Old Boys
Barton Town Old Boys endured a punishing afternoon, conceding three goals in a disastrous five-minute spell late in the first half. The hosts battled gamely but were largely second best, only managing to breach Chorley's defence in stoppage time with a consolation goal. Their inability to stem the tide during Chorley's dominant spell proved costly, and they struggled to create clear chances for much of the match.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chorley
Chorley were ruthless in attack, effectively ending the contest with three goals in quick succession late in the first half. Their clinical finishing and ability to exploit Barton Town's defensive frailties set the tone, and they managed the game professionally after the break, adding a fourth goal in the 61st minute. With a comfortable lead, Chorley controlled proceedings and rarely looked troubled, conceding only a late consolation.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With lineups and formations unavailable, the match narrative suggests Chorley pressed high and attacked with pace, overwhelming Barton Town Old Boys during a five-minute blitz late in the first half. Barton Town struggled to regroup after conceding in quick succession, and Chorley capitalized on defensive disorganization to build an unassailable lead. The away side managed the tempo after halftime, likely dropping deeper and focusing on control, before striking again on the counter for their fourth goal. Barton Town, on the other hand, appeared unable to adapt tactically to Chorley's intensity, failing to shore up defensively or mount a sustained attacking threat until the closing moments. The lack of cards suggests a clean contest, but Barton’s inability to disrupt Chorley’s rhythm proved decisive.
Turning Point
Chorley’s three-goal burst between the 35th and 40th minutes, which shattered Barton Town’s resistance and decided the match.
Man of the Match
Chorley forward(s)
Instrumental in Chorley’s first-half blitz, scoring crucial goals to put the tie beyond doubt.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley: Match Preview
Barton Town Old Boys enter this FA Cup tie with momentum, having won back-to-back home matches in the competition and conceding just once in three Cup outings this season. Their form string of 'WWDLW' and a current two-match winning streak highlight their defensive solidity, with two clean sheets and only one failed attempt to score in their last five. Chorley, from a higher division, arrive on the back of a 1-0 away Cup win, but their recent away form is mixed, with two defeats and one win in their last three on the road.
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-to-moderate scoring contest. Barton's season average of 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game in the Cup is offset by Chorley's 1.6 scored and 2 conceded over their last five, but just 1 goal scored and none conceded in their single Cup tie. Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in two of their last three Cup matches, and Barton's clean sheet rate of 67% in the Cup suggests a disciplined defensive approach at home. With no shot or possession data available, the analysis leans heavily on these scoring and concession rates.
The model expects Chorley's higher league status to give them a marginal edge, but Barton's home defensive record and ability to keep games tight make this a close contest. The likeliest scorelines are 1-2 or 1-1, with the draw probability (32%) narrowly behind the away win (41%). Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 56%, reflecting the recent Cup patterns and both sides' tendency to keep things tight in knockout football.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley that most previews miss.
- 1Barton Town Old Boys have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their FA Cup matches this season.
- 2Chorley have failed to score in two of their last five matches, both away from home.
- 3Under 2.5 goals has landed in two of Barton's three FA Cup games and in Chorley's only Cup tie this season.
Who do you think wins: Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
The model gives a 32% probability to the draw, the highest of the three outcomes, reflecting both sides' tendency for close matches and Barton's home resilience (two clean sheets in three FA Cup ties).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
The under 2.5 probability is 56%, supported by both teams' season averages (Barton: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded; Chorley: 1 scored, 0 conceded in the Cup), and only one of Barton's last three FA Cup games going over 2.5.
Read more ↓
More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley Prediction
A statistical clash between a lower-league home side with a strong defensive Cup record and a National League North visitor whose away form is inconsistent but whose underlying rates suggest a narrow edge. The goal environment projects as moderate, with neither side showing a sustained trend for high-scoring games, and the likeliest outcomes cluster around 1-2 goals for Chorley. The model expects a tight contest, with the away side's higher league pedigree reflected in the probabilities, but Barton's home record and defensive numbers keep the contest close.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Barton Town Old Boys have conceded just once in three FA Cup matches this season, keeping two clean sheets.
- →Chorley have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2 conceded over their last five in all competitions, but only one clean sheet in that span.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in two of their last three Cup matches.
How Barton Town Old Boys and Chorley Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Barton Town Old Boyslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Chorleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Barton Town Old Boys are in strong Cup form, winning two of their last three and conceding just once in that span. Chorley's recent results are mixed, with a win and two losses in their last three away games, but they did secure a 1-0 victory in their most recent Cup outing.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley
There is no head-to-head data available for these sides, so no historical trends or recurring scorelines can be drawn upon for this fixture.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Barton Town Old Boys wins
0
Draws
1
Chorley wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley
With no bookmaker odds available for any market, it's not possible to identify value edges or calculate expected value. The model's probabilities favour under 2.5 goals and a close contest, so if market odds on the under or the draw are generous, those would merit consideration.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment and EV calculations are limited.
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data for direct comparison; model relies on Cup form and derived stats.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes for both teams in the current FA Cup season may inflate the impact of recent results.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Barton Town Old Boys 1–2 ChorleyThe model calls this 2-1 to Chorley, with the single strongest data point being Barton's defensive record in the Cup (0.33 conceded per game) against a side averaging 1.6 goals scored but 2 conceded in their last five. The main risk is underestimating Barton's home advantage and defensive discipline, which could see them frustrate Chorley and force a replay.
Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley: Common Questions
Who will win Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley?
Chorley are given a 41% probability to win, compared to 27% for Barton Town Old Boys and 32% for the draw. The higher-league visitors are marginal favourites, but Barton's Cup form keeps the contest close.
Will both teams score in Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley?
The model gives a 47% chance for both teams to score and a 53% chance for at least one clean sheet. Barton's strong Cup defensive record and Chorley's occasional away blanks suggest BTTS is only slightly less likely than not.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is favoured at 56% probability, based on both teams' recent Cup matches and their season scoring/conceding rates.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Barton Town Old Boys vs Chorley: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.