Bath City vs Weymouth Predictions
FA Cup · England
Bath City
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Weymouth
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Bath City vs Weymouth: Match Preview
Bath City approach this FA Cup tie having built a steady platform in recent weeks, collecting two wins and two draws from their last four competitive fixtures. Their defensive record has stabilised after a heavy friendly defeat, conceding just four goals in their last four, while Weymouth arrive with less momentum, having lost three of their last five and managed only one clean sheet in that period. With both sides yet to play a league match this season, early cup progress will be a priority.
The statistical matchup points to a restrained contest. Bath City's attack has averaged just 1.0 goals per game in their last five, and their defence has allowed 1.2, while Weymouth's attack is slightly more productive at 1.4 but undermined by defensive frailties (2.0 conceded per game). Both teams have struggled to impose themselves early, with only three first-half goals between them in their last five matches each. The H2H record reinforces the expectation of a close game, with four draws in the last nine meetings and several low-scoring encounters.
Given these trends, the model anticipates a tightly contested match with limited goalmouth action. Bath City's marginally better form and home advantage are counterbalanced by Weymouth's occasional attacking surges, but neither side has demonstrated the consistency to pull away. A 1-1 draw emerges as the modal outcome, with under 2.5 goals the most probable scenario based on recent scoring rates and the history between the sides.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bath City vs Weymouth Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bath City vs Weymouth that most previews miss.
- 1Three of the last nine H2H meetings between Bath City and Weymouth have finished 1-1.
- 2Bath City have scored exactly one goal in each of their last three competitive matches.
- 3Weymouth have failed to score in three of their last five outings, including both recent away fixtures.
Who do you think wins: Bath City vs Weymouth?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Bath City vs Weymouth(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average around a goal per game across their last five, with Bath City conceding 1.2 and Weymouth 2.0, but neither attack has shown sustained firepower. The historical H2H is draw-heavy (four in nine, three of them 1-1), supporting a low-scoring stalemate as the modal outcome.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recent averages (Bath City 1.0 scored/1.2 conceded, Weymouth 1.4/2.0) and historical head-to-heads (five of last nine under 2.5) point to a modest goal environment, with neither side showing the shot volume or attacking consistency to drive a high total.
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The Case For This Bath City vs Weymouth Prediction
Bath City and Weymouth meet in the FA Cup on the back of modest recent form and with both sides still searching for rhythm early in the campaign. Bath City have taken two wins and two draws from their last four competitive fixtures, conceding just four goals in that span, while Weymouth's last five include three defeats and only one clean sheet. The historical head-to-head is finely balanced, with Bath City holding a slight edge but four of the last nine meetings ending all square. Statistically, the matchup projects as a low-scoring contest. Bath City average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last five, while Weymouth's figures are 1.4 for and 2.0 against, though their defensive numbers are skewed by a heavy defeat in April. Both sides have struggled for attacking consistency, with Bath City failing to score once and Weymouth three times in their last five. The first half has produced only three goals combined for these teams across those matches, suggesting a cagey opening period. Given the conservative attacking rates and the prevalence of draws in the H2H, the model expects a closely fought tie with limited clear chances. Bath City's slight home edge is offset by Weymouth's sporadic attacking bursts, but neither side has shown the firepower or defensive solidity to dominate. A 1-1 draw is the likeliest outcome, with under 2.5 goals favoured by the underlying numbers.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Bath City average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last five matches.
- →Weymouth have failed to score in three of their last five matches and average 2.0 goals conceded in that span.
Match Context
- →Four of the last nine H2H meetings have ended in draws, including three 1-1 scorelines.
How Bath City and Weymouth Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bath City vs Weymouth Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bath Citylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Weymouthlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bath City have shown a degree of resilience in recent weeks, winning twice and drawing twice in their last four competitive fixtures, while conceding only four goals in that stretch. Weymouth, in contrast, have struggled for consistency, losing three of their last five and failing to score in three of those games. Both sides are still searching for attacking rhythm, but Bath City's form trajectory is marginally more positive.
Bath City vs Weymouth — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Bath City vs Weymouth
The head-to-head record is balanced but draw-heavy, with four of the last nine meetings ending level and three of those finishing 1-1. Bath City have a slight historical edge with four wins to Weymouth's one, but recent encounters have tended to be closely contested and low-scoring.
Bath City vs Weymouth Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
4
Bath City wins
4
Draws
1
Weymouth wins
Things to Watch: Bath City vs Weymouth
- ⚠️No current season league data or advanced stats (shots, xG, possession) available for either side.
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small and include friendlies, reducing reliability.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be quantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bath City 1–1 WeymouthThe data points to a low-scoring, evenly matched cup tie, with a 1-1 draw the most probable outcome. The strongest supporting data is the recurring 1-1 scoreline in recent head-to-heads and both teams' modest attacking output over the last five matches. The main risk is that either side's defensive lapses—especially Weymouth's 2.0 goals conceded per game—could open the door to a higher scoreline if early chances are taken.
Bath City vs Weymouth: Common Questions
Who will win Bath City vs Weymouth?
The model gives Bath City a 39% chance of victory, Weymouth a 25% chance, and a draw a 36% probability. The most likely outcome is a tightly contested draw, with historical head-to-heads also showing a high frequency of stalemates.
Will both teams score in Bath City vs Weymouth?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, with Bath City averaging 1.0 goals scored and Weymouth 1.4 over their last five matches. However, Weymouth have failed to score in three of those games, so BTTS is only marginally favoured.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Bath City vs Weymouth?
Under 2.5 goals is the model's preferred total, with a 56% probability. Both teams' recent matches and the head-to-head record support a low-scoring outcome, as neither side has shown consistent attacking threat.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bath City vs Weymouth: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.