Bedford Town vs Chorley Predictions
National League - North · England
Bedford Town
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Chorley
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
Bedford Town vs Chorley: Match Preview
Bedford Town enter this fixture in 10th place, having picked up 16 points from 10 matches and boasting a solid home record of three wins from five. Their recent form string of WDDWL includes a comeback win in the FA Cup and a late equaliser in their last league outing, reflecting a side with resilience but also defensive lapses. Chorley, two points behind in 12th, arrive with a three-game winning streak in all competitions but have struggled away from home, taking just one win in five on the road.
Statistically, this match projects a high goal environment. Bedford Town average 1.8 goals scored per game in their last five and have seen both teams score in all of those matches. Chorley have been similarly open, with 16 goals for and 17 against in 10 league games, and a 70% over 2.5 goals rate. The home attack's 9 goals in 5 home fixtures will test a Chorley defence that has shipped 9 in 5 away, while the visitors' 1.6 goals per game season average means they should also threaten.
With both teams showing a bias towards goals in the first half (Bedford 4, Chorley 6 in their last five matches), an early breakthrough is likely. The model gives Bedford Town a slight edge due to their home scoring rate and Chorley's away frailty, but expects both teams to find the net. Most outcomes cluster around a 2-1 or 2-2 scoreline, with the home side's marginally better defensive record tipping the balance.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bedford Town vs Chorley Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bedford Town vs Chorley that most previews miss.
- 1Bedford Town have seen both teams score in all of their last five matches, the highest BTTS streak in the division.
- 2Chorley have conceded 9 goals in 5 away games, the third-worst away defensive record among the top half teams.
- 3Across both teams' last 10 league matches, 65% have gone over 2.5 goals, well above the league average.
Who do you think wins: Bedford Town vs Chorley?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Bedford Town vs Chorley(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in all of Bedford Town's last five matches and in three of Chorley's last five, with both sides averaging over 1.4 goals scored and conceded per game this season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Bedford Town's over 2.5 goals rate is 60% and Chorley's is 70%, with both teams averaging more than 3 goals per game combined across the season.
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Match Result: Bedford Town Win
Bedford Town have won three of five at home and Chorley have only one away win from five, while Bedford also took the last home H2H 2-0.
More National League - North Predictions
The Case For This Bedford Town vs Chorley Prediction
A mid-table clash with both sides showing attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities, Bedford Town's home scoring rate and Chorley's leaky away defence suggest a match with multiple goals and a narrow home edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Bedford Town average 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game in their last five matches.
- →Chorley have scored 16 and conceded 17 in 10 league games, with only one clean sheet in their last five.
Match Context
- →Bedford Town's home record (3W, 1D, 1L) is notably stronger than Chorley's away record (1W, 1D, 3L).
How Bedford Town and Chorley Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bedford Town vs Chorley Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bedford Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chorleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bedford Town have lost just once in their last five matches, scoring in every outing and showing late-game resilience with a stoppage-time equaliser against Hereford. Chorley are on a three-match winning run in all competitions, boosted by a recent 4-1 FA Cup win, but their away league form remains a concern with only one win from five.
Bedford Town vs Chorley — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
What History Says: Bedford Town vs Chorley
Each of the last two meetings has been won by the home side, with Bedford Town prevailing 2-0 at The Eyrie and Chorley taking the reverse 1-0. No draws have occurred, and both matches finished under 2.5 goals, though both teams have been more open this season.
Bedford Town vs Chorley Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Bedford Town wins
0
Draws
1
Chorley wins
Things to Watch: Bedford Town vs Chorley
- ⚠️No odds available; value calculation not possible.
- ⚠️Limited recent data on shots, corners, and cards for both teams.
- ⚠️Small sample size in H2H and some missing match statistics.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bedford Town 2–1 ChorleyThe model projects a 2-1 home win, anchored by Bedford Town's superior home record (3W, 1D, 1L) and Chorley's poor away defence (9 conceded in 5). The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Chorley's recent attacking uptick (2.4 goals per game in their last five) overpowers Bedford's inconsistent back line.
Bedford Town vs Chorley: Common Questions
Who will win Bedford Town vs Chorley?
The model gives Bedford Town a 41% chance of victory, with a 32% probability of a draw and Chorley rated at 27%. Bedford's home record and Chorley's away struggles tip the balance slightly to the hosts.
Will both teams score in Bedford Town vs Chorley?
Yes is favoured at 63%, as both teams average more than 1.4 goals scored and conceded per game, and Bedford Town have seen BTTS in all of their last five matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Bedford Town vs Chorley?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 58%, supported by Bedford Town's 60% and Chorley's 70% season rates for this market, and a combined average of 3 goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bedford Town vs Chorley: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.