Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Bodo/Glimt
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 3 - 0
Fredrikstad
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Bodo/Glimt Win
Match Result
6.5/10Bodo/Glimt Dominate Fredrikstad but Settle for Narrow 1-0 Win at Aspmyra
Bodo/Glimt asserted their authority at Aspmyra Stadion, controlling the match from start to finish and ultimately edging Fredrikstad 1-0 in a one-sided Eliteserien encounter. The hosts monopolized possession with 66%, fired 19 shots (five on target), and forced 12 corners, but were made to work hard for their three points by a resilient but limited Fredrikstad side. The decisive moment arrived on the stroke of halftime, when Bodo/Glimt finally broke through against a packed Fredrikstad defence. Despite their dominance, Bodo/Glimt could not convert their superiority into a more comfortable scoreline, as Fredrikstad, though outclassed, dug in and frustrated the home attack. The visitors failed to muster a single shot on target and spent much of the match on the back foot, their only solace coming from a disciplined defensive effort that kept the margin respectable.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
3 - 0
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
45' — Goal
Ola Brynhildsen breaks the deadlock for Bodo/Glimt just before halftime, finishing off a sustained spell of pressure.
53' — Yellow Card
Fredrik Holmé (Fredrikstad) booked for a late challenge, typifying Fredrikstad’s physical approach.
67' — Yellow Card
Leonard Owusu (Fredrikstad) shown yellow as Bodo/Glimt continue to probe for a second goal.
74' — Yellow Card
Simen Rafn (Fredrikstad) cautioned for time-wasting as Fredrikstad try to slow the game.
81' — Yellow Card
Max Nilsson (Fredrikstad) receives a yellow for another tactical foul, as Bodo/Glimt push forward.
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt were in complete control throughout, dictating the tempo with slick passing and relentless pressure. Their 66% possession and 19 shots reflected their attacking intent, while 12 corners highlighted their ability to pin Fredrikstad deep. However, a combination of wasteful finishing and a stubborn visiting defence meant they only found the net once, just before halftime. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, with goalkeeper Nikita Haikin enjoying a quiet evening. Although the margin was slender, Bodo/Glimt’s midfield orchestrated proceedings, and their backline was largely untested. The only blemish was their inability to kill off the game earlier, leaving the door ever-so-slightly ajar for a Fredrikstad equalizer that never came.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad set up defensively in a 3-4-3 formation but spent much of the match pinned back, struggling to escape their own half. With only 34% possession and a solitary shot (off target), their attacking ambitions were virtually non-existent. The visitors’ main achievement was keeping the scoreline respectable, thanks to a committed defensive effort and some rugged tackling, as evidenced by their 14 fouls and four yellow cards. Despite their defensive resilience, Fredrikstad offered nothing going forward and failed to register a single shot on target or force a corner. Their inability to retain possession or threaten on the break left them hoping for a rare counter or set piece that never materialized.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Bodo/Glimt lined up in a classic 4-4-2, using their width and midfield control to stretch Fredrikstad’s compact 3-4-3. The home side’s full-backs pushed high, pinning Fredrikstad’s wing-backs deep and creating overloads in wide areas, which led to a flurry of corners and crossing opportunities. Their pressing forced Fredrikstad into mistakes, preventing the visitors from building any meaningful attacks. Fredrikstad’s 3-4-3 was, in practice, a defensive 5-4-1 for much of the match, with their forwards dropping deep to help stem the tide. Their midfield was overrun, and they resorted to fouls to break up play, as reflected in their four yellow cards. Substitutions did little to alter the pattern, with Bodo/Glimt maintaining control throughout.
Turning Point
Ola Brynhildsen’s goal in the 45th minute shifted the momentum decisively in Bodo/Glimt’s favor, forcing Fredrikstad to chase the game without the tools to do so.
Man of the Match
Ola Brynhildsen
Scored the match-winning goal and was a constant threat, providing the cutting edge Bodo/Glimt needed.
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad: Match Preview
Momentum is firmly with Bodo/Glimt as they return to Aspmyra Stadion on a three-match winning run, having scored 10 goals in their last three competitive fixtures and conceding just three. Their home record remains imposing, with four wins from five and only two goals conceded at home all season. Fredrikstad, meanwhile, are trending the opposite direction: two straight losses, only one goal scored in their last three games, and a solitary away league win all campaign. The gap in league position and recent form is stark, with Bodo/Glimt pushing for the summit and Fredrikstad drifting in mid-table.
The tactical matchup looks lopsided on the numbers. Bodo/Glimt's attack is humming, averaging 3.0 goals and 8.4 shots per match over their last five, while Fredrikstad's defence has been breached 1.4 times per game in the same stretch. Fredrikstad's away defence has been particularly porous, shipping 14 goals in six away league matches. Bodo/Glimt's ability to start fast is notable: they've netted six first-half goals in their last five, while Fredrikstad have managed just one. Set-piece threat also favours the hosts, with an average of 3.2 corners per game in recent matches, while Fredrikstad have struggled to create from dead balls.
Given the hosts' scoring momentum, home dominance, and Fredrikstad's attacking struggles, the model expects Bodo/Glimt to seize control early and maintain it. The most likely scenario is a comfortable home win, with Fredrikstad rarely threatening and Bodo/Glimt's attack continuing its ruthless streak.
How Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bodo/Glimtlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fredrikstadlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Bodo/Glimt are riding a wave of confidence, unbeaten in their last five competitive fixtures and coming off three consecutive wins, including a 2-0 away victory at KFUM Oslo. Fredrikstad, by contrast, are struggling for momentum, with back-to-back defeats and just one win in their last five. The difference in recent trajectories is stark, with Bodo/Glimt surging and Fredrikstad faltering.
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad that most previews miss.
- 1Bodo/Glimt have scored at least two goals in every home match against Fredrikstad since 2017, including a 5-0 win last season.
- 2Fredrikstad have managed just one first-half goal in their last five matches, while Bodo/Glimt have hit six before the break in the same span.
- 3Bodo/Glimt have not failed to score in any of their last five, while Fredrikstad have failed to score in two of their last five.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.60
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 2-1 · 3-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad Prediction
Bodo/Glimt are surging into this fixture on the back of a three-match winning streak, scoring 10 goals and conceding just once in their last two competitive outings. Fredrikstad, in contrast, have lost back-to-back matches and managed only one goal in their last three, with their attack looking increasingly blunt away from home.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Fredrikstad's current streak: LLDDW, just 0.8 goals scored per game in last five.
Defence
- →Bodo/Glimt's last five: WWWDW, 3.0 goals per game scored, 0.8 conceded.
Match Context
- →Bodo/Glimt have won five of the last six H2H meetings, including 5-0 in the most recent home clash.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Bodo/Glimt Win
Bodo/Glimt have won four of their last five competitive matches and average 3 goals per game in that stretch, while Fredrikstad arrive on a two-game losing streak and have scored just 0.8 goals per game over their last five.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Fredrikstad have failed to score in two of their last five and Bodo/Glimt have kept clean sheets in two of their last five, with Fredrikstad's away attack averaging just 1.0 goals per game this season.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Bodo/Glimt's last five competitive matches have averaged 3.0 goals per game, and 67% of their league matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals.
Read more ↓
More Eliteserien Predictions
🚩 Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Bodo/Glimt and 4.6 for Fredrikstad, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 51%.
What History Says: Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad
Bodo/Glimt have dominated the head-to-head, winning five of the last six meetings and keeping three clean sheets in that span. Their last home clash ended 5-0 in favour of Bodo/Glimt, underlining their superiority in this fixture. Fredrikstad have not beaten Bodo/Glimt since at least 2017.
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
6
Bodo/Glimt wins
1
Draws
0
Fredrikstad wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad
With no bookmaker odds available, it is not possible to quantify value edges for this fixture. However, the model's strong lean towards a Bodo/Glimt win and a low chance of both teams scoring would likely indicate value on the home side and against BTTS if market odds are short on the away team or goals. Any value should be reassessed once odds are published.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Fredrikstad's recent friendlies may not fully reflect their competitive level.
- ⚠️Small sample size for some derived stats due to split between league and friendly matches.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bodo/Glimt 3–0 FredrikstadBodo/Glimt's recent form is simply irresistible, with three straight wins and a relentless attack that has produced 10 goals in their last three competitive matches. The single most compelling stat is their home defensive record: just two goals conceded in five home league games. The main risk is a letdown in finishing or an unexpected Fredrikstad counter, but all data points to a decisive home win, most likely by a multi-goal margin.
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad: Common Questions
Who will win Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
The model gives Bodo/Glimt a 74% probability of victory, built on a three-match winning streak and a home record of four wins from five. Fredrikstad are given just a 9% chance, with a draw at 17%.
Will Bodo/Glimt's winning run continue?
Recent form heavily favours Bodo/Glimt, who have won four of their last five and scored at least twice in each of those wins. Their momentum, especially at home, makes them strong favourites to extend their streak.
Will both teams score in this match?
The probability for both teams to score is just 28%, with Fredrikstad having failed to score in two of their last five and Bodo/Glimt keeping two clean sheets in the same period. The data suggests Bodo/Glimt are likely to keep Fredrikstad off the scoresheet.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.