Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü Predictions

Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
1. Lig1. Lig · Turkey
high confidence
Bodrum FK

Bodrum FK

Full Time

0 - 0

AI predicted 1 - 1

Keçiörengücü

Keçiörengücü

🗓️ Friday, 9 Oct 2026 at 17:00 GMT+3 (venue time) · 14:00 UTC (your time)

Win Probability (1X2)

Bodrum FK 26%Draw 38%Keçiörengücü 36%

Best Value Pick

Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5

Match Result

6.8/10

Keçiörengücü Punish Wasteful Bodrum FK in Clinical Away Win

Keçiörengücü left Bodrum Ilce Stadi with all three points after a disciplined and clinical 2-0 victory over Bodrum FK. Despite Bodrum enjoying the lion's share of possession (58%) and registering more shots (17 to 16), it was the visitors who made their opportunities count, striking in each half to secure a vital away win. The match's flow was defined by Keçiörengücü's efficiency and Bodrum's growing frustration, which eventually boiled over into ill-discipline—culminating in a red card for the hosts. First-half dominance by Bodrum failed to yield a breakthrough, and Keçiörengücü's opener on 25 minutes shifted the momentum. A second goal shortly after halftime left Bodrum chasing the game, and their efforts were further hampered by mounting cards and a numerical disadvantage.

😅 AI Prediction Report

CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR

Predicted

1 - 1

⚡

Actual

0 - 2

❌Result
❌BTTS
✅O/U 2.5
❌Score

💰 Bet Results1/3 hit

1X2 — Draw
❌
Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Under 2.5
✅
Both Teams to Score — Yes
❌

Key Moments

25' — Goal

Keçiörengücü open the scoring, punishing Bodrum's defensive lapse.

53' — Goal

Keçiörengücü double their lead with a well-taken finish, putting the hosts under real pressure.

65' — Red Card

Bodrum FK reduced to ten men after a second yellow, compounding their frustration.

Bodrum FK

Bodrum FK

5.5/10

Bodrum FK started brightly, controlling possession and pushing forward with intent, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. Despite firing 17 shots—5 on target—and winning 7 corners, they could not find a way past Keçiörengücü's resolute defense and goalkeeper M. Erdoğan. As the match wore on, frustration set in, leading to three yellow cards and a red, which effectively ended any hopes of a comeback.

Key Players

V. Aboubakar: Led the line and was involved in several attacking moves, but failed to convert chances.
E. Arslan: Worked tirelessly in midfield, helping Bodrum control possession.

Strengths

Dominated possessionCreated more shooting opportunitiesWon multiple corners

Weaknesses

Inefficient finishingDefensive lapses at key momentsDiscipline issues (3 yellows, 1 red)
Keçiörengücü

Keçiörengücü

7.5/10

Keçiörengücü executed a well-drilled game plan, soaking up pressure and striking decisively on the counter. Their 4-2-3-1 formation provided defensive solidity, limiting Bodrum to half-chances, while their own attack was ruthlessly efficient—scoring twice from their 5 shots on target. The visitors managed the game intelligently after taking the lead, remaining composed even as Bodrum pressed and the atmosphere intensified.

Key Players

M. Diouf: Scored a crucial goal and led the line with physicality and intelligence.
M. Erdoğan: Made key saves to preserve the clean sheet and commanded his area well.

Strengths

Clinical finishingDisciplined defensive structureEffective game management

Weaknesses

Conceded possessionLimited attacking phases outside of counterattacks

Tactical Analysis

Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1, but their approaches diverged markedly. Bodrum FK sought to dictate play with patient buildup and numbers in midfield, but struggled to break down Keçiörengücü's compact defensive lines. The visitors, meanwhile, prioritized defensive organization and quick transitions, capitalizing on turnovers and set pieces. Keçiörengücü's midfield shield limited Bodrum's space between the lines, while their full-backs rarely ventured forward, ensuring solidity. After going ahead, Keçiörengücü sat deeper, inviting Bodrum on and looking to exploit space on the break, a tactic that paid dividends with their second goal. The red card forced Bodrum to further commit men forward, but Keçiörengücü's discipline and structure saw them through.

Turning Point

Keçiörengücü's second goal early in the second half (53rd minute) killed Bodrum's momentum and forced the hosts to chase the game, leading to further mistakes and the crucial red card.

Man of the Match

M. Diouf

Scored a decisive goal, led the line with authority, and was pivotal in Keçiörengücü's attacking transitions.

Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü: Match Preview

Bodrum FK come into this fixture sitting 14th, having drawn five of their eight league matches and boasting just one win. Their recent form string reads 'DWLDD', with a notable 4-0 home win sandwiched between a run of low-scoring draws and a narrow away defeat. Keçiörengücü, currently 6th, have lost only once and are unbeaten in their last five, but have also drawn four times this campaign, highlighting a tendency for both sides to share the points.

The statistical matchup is defined by contrasting attacking and defensive rates. Bodrum FK are averaging just 0.88 goals scored per game and have failed to score in three of their last five, but have conceded only 0.75 per match and kept three clean sheets in that span. Keçiörengücü, by contrast, average 2.13 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match, but their away output drops to 1.75 scored and 1.5 conceded. The hosts' home matches have seen just six goals in four games, while Keçiörengücü's away fixtures have produced a more open 13 goals in four. Set-piece and discipline data suggest a moderate cards environment (both average 2 yellows per match recently) and below-average corners, with neither side showing a pronounced set-piece edge.

Given Bodrum FK's defensive record at home and Keçiörengücü's slight drop-off away, the model expects a low-scoring contest with limited clear chances. The most likely outcome is a draw, with both teams to score marginally more likely than not, but the overall goal total expected to stay under 2.5. The distribution of rates points to 1-1 as the modal scoreline, with either side capable of edging it if finishing variance swings their way.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Bodrum FK1.00

Expected goals · model says 1.00

Keçiörengücü1.20

Expected goals · model says 1.20

Win Probability
Bodrum FK 31% Draw 29% Keçiörengücü 41%

Over 2.5 Goals

38%

BTTS: Yes

44%

Likely Scores

0-1 · 1-1 · 0-0

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
26%
38%
36%
Bodrum FK 26%Draw 38%Keçiörengücü 36%
Both Teams to Score
53%
47%
Yes 53%No 47%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
41%
59%
Over 2.5 41%Under 2.5 59%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
39%
61%
Over 9.5 39%Under 9.5 61%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü that most previews miss.

  • 1Bodrum FK have drawn five of their eight league matches, including three 0-0 or 1-1 results.
  • 2Keçiörengücü have scored in every away match this season, averaging 1.75 goals per away game.
  • 3Across the last five H2H meetings, both teams have scored in four, with three matches finishing by a single-goal margin or less.

Who do you think wins: Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

More 1. Lig Predictions

The Case For This Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü Prediction

Statistical signals point to a tightly contested draw, with Bodrum FK's defensive solidity at home offset by Keçiörengücü's superior attacking rate. The overall goal environment is likely to be modest, with both sides more likely to cancel each other out than run away with it.

Key Factors at a Glance

Attack

  • →Bodrum FK average just 0.88 goals scored per match this season.

Defence

  • →Bodrum FK have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5, but have scored in only 2 of those.

Match Context

  • →Keçiörengücü have scored 17 goals in 8 matches, but only 7 in 4 away games.

🚩 Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü Corners Prediction

medium confidence
8.8expected total corners
Over 39%
Under 61%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for Bodrum FK and 5 for Keçiörengücü, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How Bodrum FK and Keçiörengücü Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

Bodrum FKBodrum FKlast 5 matches
E. BilselXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

Fernando AndradeXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

V. AboubakarXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücülast 5 matches
M. DioufXI
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

F. EzehXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

H. Ayansub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

I. Akdagsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

E. Yilmazsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

O. Caliskansub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Bodrum FK's recent form is defined by defensive solidity but attacking inconsistency, with three clean sheets in their last five but three matches without scoring. Keçiörengücü are unbeaten in five, mixing two wins with three draws, and have scored in every match over that span. The visitors' higher scoring rate is slightly offset by a less robust defensive record away from home.

Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü — Last 8 Matches

Bodrum FKBodrum FKLast 8 results
D1-1
W4-0
L0-1
D0-0
D0-0
D0-0
D2-2
L0-2
D@ Pendikspor1-1
Wvs Batman Petrolspor4-0
L@ Mardin 19690-1
Dvs Esenler Erokspor0-0
D@ Manisa F.K.0-0
Dvs Muğlaspor0-0
D@ İstanbulspor2-2
Lvs Bursaspor0-2

Strengths

  • +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
  • +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
  • +50% clean sheet rate this season
KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücüLast 8 results
D1-1
D1-1
W3-0
W2-0
D2-2
D1-1
W4-1
L3-4
Dvs Sivasspor1-1
D@ Vanspor FK1-1
Wvs Sarıyer3-0
W@ Boluspor2-0
Dvs Ümraniyespor2-2
D@ Bandırmaspor1-1
Wvs Pendikspor4-1
L@ Antalyaspor3-4

Strengths

  • +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game

What History Says: Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü

Keçiörengücü have won four of the last eight meetings, but recent encounters have been closer, with a 4-3 Bodrum FK home win and two draws in the last three. Both teams have found the net in five of the last eight, and only one of the last five has been decided by more than a single goal.

Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü Head-to-Head History

Last 8 meetings between these sides

2

Bodrum FK wins

2

Draws

4

Keçiörengücü wins

25%25% draws50%
14 Feb 26Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü4-3
20 Sept 25Keçiörengücü vs Bodrum FK2-1
6 Apr 24Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü0-0
11 Nov 23Keçiörengücü vs Bodrum FK1-1
22 Jan 23Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü1-2
21 Aug 22Keçiörengücü vs Bodrum FK1-3

Things to Watch: Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
  • ⚠️Recent form samples are small (5 matches), so true team strength may be misestimated.
  • ⚠️Lineups and late injuries unknown; model assumes both teams at typical strength.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Bodrum FK 1–1 Keçiörengücü

The model projects a 1-1 draw, anchored by Bodrum FK's defensive home record (just two goals conceded in four home games) and Keçiörengücü's consistent but not explosive away attack. The greatest risk to this call is Keçiörengücü's higher shot volume and recent scoring form, which could tilt the match if Bodrum FK's attack again fails to convert.

Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü: Common Questions

Who will win Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü?

The model gives Keçiörengücü a slight edge (36% win probability) over Bodrum FK (26%), but the draw is most likely at 38%. Both teams have drawn more than half their league matches so far.

Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü?

Both teams to score is rated at 53% probability. Keçiörengücü have scored in every away match this season, while Bodrum FK have failed to score in three of their last five, making this a marginal call.

Is under 2.5 goals likely in Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü?

Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59% probability. Bodrum FK's matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 6 of 8 this season, and their last five average just 1.4 total goals per game.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 2 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

More Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü Resources