Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Botafogo
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Vasco DA Gama
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Vasco DA Gama Win
@ 2.62(+2% edge)
Recommended Bets: Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama: Match Preview
Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama find themselves in the bottom half of the Serie A table, separated by just four points, but their recent trajectories could hardly be more different. Botafogo have stumbled with a single win in their last five (LWDDL), including a limp 0-2 defeat at Mirassol and three games without finding the net. In contrast, Vasco have surged with three straight wins, capped by a 5-0 demolition of Coritiba and a gritty 2-1 away win at Gremio, pulling themselves clear of the relegation zone for now.
Statistically, this matchup is defined by Vasco's current attacking verve against a Botafogo side struggling for fluency. Vasco have averaged 1.8 goals and 17.8 shots per game in their last five, while Botafogo have managed just 0.8 goals and failed to score in three of those outings. Botafogo's home defence remains leaky (20 conceded in 14), and their clean sheet rate for the season is just 14.3%. Vasco's away record is poor (1W 5D 7L), but recent form and a more settled midfield have seen them control possession (52.8% last five) and generate more set-piece threat (6.2 corners per game).
The model expects Vasco's resurgence to outweigh their season-long away struggles, projecting a narrow 2-1 victory for the visitors. While Botafogo's home record and H2H edge at this ground provide some ballast, the data points to Vasco's current form and attacking output as the key differentiators. The main risk lies in Vasco reverting to their earlier away form, but on balance, the value lies with the visitors.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama
The market sees this as an even contest, but the model's probabilities lean slightly towards Vasco DA Gama, offering a small value edge on the away win at current odds. Other major markets, like both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, are closely aligned with the model, indicating little value outside the 1x2 away selection.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Vasco DA Gama Win@ 2.64
Vasco DA Gama's recent form (WWWDL), including three straight wins and a +1.4 goal difference over the last five, contrasts sharply with Botafogo's one win in five (LWDDL) and three games without scoring. The model gives Vasco a 39% win probability (implied odds 2.56), slightly above the market's 2.62, presenting a marginal value edge.
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Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama that most previews miss.
- 1Vasco DA Gama have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding just twice in that span.
- 2Botafogo have seen over 2.5 goals in 64% of their league matches this season, one of the highest rates in the division.
- 3The last three H2H meetings at Botafogo's ground have produced two home wins by 3-0 scorelines and one 1-1 draw.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction
The betting market prices this as a near pick'em, but Vasco DA Gama arrive with momentum and a sharper attacking edge, while Botafogo's recent home output has stalled. The numbers suggest Vasco's upturn is more than just a hot streak, with their underlying shot and possession metrics pointing to a side currently outperforming their lowly away record.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Vasco's away record is poor over the season (1W 5D 7L), but their recent away form includes a 2-1 win at Gremio and a draw at Santa Fe.
Attack
- →Botafogo have failed to score in three of their last five matches and average just 0.8 goals per game in that span.
Defence
- →Vasco DA Gama have averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game across their last five in all competitions.
🚩 Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Botafogo and 5.2 for Vasco DA Gama, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Botafogolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasco DA Gamalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Botafogo have lost momentum, picking up just one win in their last five and failing to score in three of those matches. Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have turned a corner with three consecutive wins, including a dominant 5-0 victory and a crucial away win at Gremio, signalling a side on the rise.
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
What History Says: Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama
The last ten meetings between these sides are finely balanced, with Botafogo holding a slight edge at home, including two 3-0 wins in recent years. However, Vasco won the most recent league encounter away from home, suggesting the gap is narrowing.
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Botafogo wins
3
Draws
3
Vasco DA Gama wins
Things to Watch: Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama
- ⚠️Vasco's season-long away record remains weak despite recent improvement, raising questions about sustainability.
- ⚠️Botafogo's home record (5W 6D 3L) is solid, and they have scored 24 goals in 14 home matches.
- ⚠️No significant injuries are reported, but both sides have rotated formations recently, adding some lineup uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Botafogo 1–2 Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama's recent surge in both results and underlying metrics gives them a narrow edge, with the model projecting a 2-1 away win. The single strongest data point is Vasco's 1.8 goals per game over the last five, against a Botafogo side that has failed to score in three of five. The biggest risk is Vasco's historically poor away record, which could resurface if their current momentum stalls.
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama: Common Questions
Who will win Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model gives Vasco DA Gama a 39% chance to win, Botafogo a 29% chance, and a draw at 32%. Vasco's recent form and attacking output tip the balance slightly in their favour, despite their season-long away struggles.
Is both teams to score a good bet in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Both teams to score is rated at 58% probability, slightly above the market's implied 59.9% (odds 1.67). Botafogo have failed to score in three of their last five, but Vasco's away defence has not been consistently reliable over the season.
Are the odds on Vasco DA Gama value for this match?
The away win is priced at 2.62 (implied 38.2%), while the model gives Vasco a 39% chance—yielding a small value edge of +2.2%. It's a marginal advantage, but the numbers support a cautious position on Vasco given their current form.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.