Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Burgos
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
AD Ceuta FC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 4.5(+1% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Burgos and Ceuta Share the Spoils in Tense El Plantío Stalemate
Burgos and AD Ceuta FC played out a hard-fought 1-1 draw at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive breakthrough. Ceuta struck first through Marcos Fernández in the 22nd minute, capitalizing on a rare defensive lapse from the hosts. Burgos responded with resilience, leveling the score nine minutes later courtesy of Mario González, setting the stage for a tightly contested second half. Despite Burgos edging possession (51%) and registering more shots (8 total, 3 on target), they found Ceuta's disciplined back three tough to break down. Both teams had spells of pressure and forced a combined 15 corners, but a mixture of strong defending and wayward finishing ensured the points were shared. The result keeps both sides firmly in the hunt for their respective Segunda División ambitions.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
22' — Goal
Marcos Fernández gives Ceuta the lead with a composed finish.
31' — Goal
Mario González equalizes for Burgos, finishing off a well-worked move.
39' — Yellow Card
Youness Lachhab (Ceuta) booked for a tactical foul.
44' — Yellow Card
Marcelo Expósito (Burgos) shown yellow for dissent.
71' — Yellow Card
Carlos Hernández (Ceuta) cautioned for a late challenge.
76' — Yellow Card
Íñigo Cordoba (Burgos) receives a yellow for a foul in midfield.
Burgos
Burgos showed character to recover from an early setback, dominating possession and creating more opportunities, especially from wide areas. Their 4-4-2 formation allowed them to stretch Ceuta's backline, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third limited their tally to just one goal from eight shots. Defensively, they were generally solid but momentarily switched off for Ceuta's opener. Set pieces were a notable avenue, with Burgos earning eight corners, but they failed to convert these into further goals. The midfield worked hard to regain control after falling behind, and Mario González's equalizer reflected their persistence. However, they struggled to break down Ceuta's organized defense in the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
AD Ceuta FC
Ceuta executed their 3-4-2-1 system with discipline, frustrating Burgos for large spells and looking dangerous on the break. Marcos Fernández's well-taken goal gave them an early advantage, and their compact shape limited Burgos to just three shots on target. The midfield duo of Youness Lachhab and Marino Illescas worked tirelessly to disrupt Burgos' rhythm. While Ceuta's attacking threat waned after their opener, they remained defensively resolute, conceding only from a moment of quality by the hosts. Their ability to absorb pressure and counter occasionally tested Burgos, but ultimately they settled for a point after failing to create enough clear-cut chances in the second half.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Burgos lined up in a traditional 4-4-2, seeking width through Cordoba and Mollejo, and looked to overload the flanks against Ceuta's back three. Their fullbacks pushed high, contributing to the eight corners won, but Ceuta's compact 3-4-2-1 shape proved tough to penetrate centrally. Ceuta relied on quick transitions, with Fernández and Bassinga looking to exploit spaces left by Burgos' attacking fullbacks. Both sides maintained their original formations throughout, with substitutions (not detailed in provided data) likely used to inject energy rather than alter tactical shape. Ceuta's midfield shielded their defense effectively, while Burgos' pressing forced turnovers but couldn't translate dominance into a winner.
Turning Point
Mario González's 31st-minute equalizer restored parity and shifted momentum back to Burgos, but neither side could capitalize thereafter.
Man of the Match
Mario González
Scored the crucial equalizer and was a constant threat in attack for Burgos.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
39%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Burgos Win@ 1.4
Burgos are in strong home form (WDWWL), have 4 clean sheets in last 5, and face a Ceuta side with the league's worst away defence (33 conceded in 16). The model makes Burgos clear favorites and the odds are just on the edge of value.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 1.17
Burgos have not conceded in their last 4 matches, Ceuta have failed to score in 1/5 and struggle away. The model gives a high probability for 'no', but the odds are a bit short for strong value.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.65
Burgos home games are low-scoring (under 2.5 in 64.5% at home), Ceuta's away attack is inconsistent, and both teams' recent matches trend under. Small value at current odds.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction
Burgos come into this fixture in strong defensive form, with four clean sheets in their last five matches, and have been particularly solid at home. AD Ceuta FC, meanwhile, have the league's worst away defensive record, conceding over two goals per away game, and have lost three in a row. While Ceuta do have some attacking threat, especially at home, their away form is poor and they struggle to break down organized sides. Expect Burgos to control the match, keep things tight at the back, and take advantage of Ceuta's defensive weaknesses, likely resulting in a low-scoring home win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Burgos games trend under 2.5, Ceuta away games trend over, but recent Ceuta attack is inconsistent
Defence
- →Burgos: 4 clean sheets in last 5, only 0.2 goals conceded per game recently
- →Ceuta: 3 straight losses, 2.6 goals conceded per game in last 5, worst away defence in league
- →Burgos home record: 8W 5D 3L, only 10 goals conceded in 16 home matches
- →Ceuta away record: 3W 4D 9L, 33 goals conceded in 16 away matches
Match Context
- →Only one H2H, Ceuta won at home 1-0, but away is a different story
🚩 Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Burgos and 4 for AD Ceuta FC, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Burgos and AD Ceuta FC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burgoslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
AD Ceuta FClast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Burgos wins
1
Draws
1
AD Ceuta FC wins
Things to Watch: Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC
- ⚠️Only one recent H2H, so limited direct matchup data
- ⚠️Ceuta have shown some attacking ability, so a goal for them is possible if Burgos slip
- ⚠️Burgos' low shots/corners averages suggest they sometimes struggle to create chances, so a low-scoring draw is not impossible
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for both teams in recent games, slightly reducing confidence in attack/defence metrics
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.