Burgos vs FC Andorra Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Burgos
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
FC Andorra
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Burgos Edge FC Andorra in Gritty Segunda División Finale
Burgos secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over FC Andorra at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, closing their Segunda División campaign on a high note. Despite ceding the lion's share of possession (34% to Andorra's 66%), the hosts made their moments count, with Curro Sánchez delivering the decisive blow just before halftime. FC Andorra, for all their territorial dominance and 13 total shots, struggled to carve out clear opportunities and were ultimately left frustrated by a resolute Burgos defense. The match was a tale of contrasting styles: Burgos' compact 4-4-2 soaked up pressure and struck clinically, while Andorra's 4-3-3 formation prioritized ball retention but lacked penetration in the final third. Both sides saw two players booked in a physical contest, but it was Burgos' discipline and organization that ultimately prevailed.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
40' — Goal
Curro Sánchez finishes off a swift Burgos move to put the hosts ahead against the run of play.
45' — Yellow Card
Miguel Atienza (Burgos) is booked for a tactical foul to halt an Andorra break.
52' — Yellow Card
Efe Akman (FC Andorra) shown yellow for dissent after a midfield tussle.
67' — Yellow Card
Sergio González (Burgos) cautioned for a late challenge on Lautaro De León.
74' — Yellow Card
Marti Vila (FC Andorra) booked for a foul on Íñigo Cordoba as Burgos threatened on the break.
Burgos
Burgos executed their game plan to perfection, allowing FC Andorra to dictate possession but remaining compact and dangerous on the counter. Their 11 shots, with 5 on target, reflected an efficient approach, and their defensive structure limited Andorra to just 3 shots on target despite sustained pressure. The midfield duo of Iván Morante and Miguel Atienza worked tirelessly to disrupt Andorra's rhythm, while the backline, marshaled by Sergio González and Grego Sierra, stood firm throughout.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
FC Andorra
FC Andorra dominated the ball with 66% possession and outshot their hosts, but their attacking play lacked the incisiveness needed to break down a disciplined Burgos side. Despite their 13 total shots, only 3 were on target, and clear-cut chances were at a premium. The midfield trio of Efe Akman, Marc Domenech, and Daniel Villahermosa controlled the tempo, but the front three struggled to convert territory into goals. Defensive lapses, particularly before halftime, proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Burgos set up in a classic 4-4-2, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their two banks of four limited Andorra's space between the lines, forcing the visitors to circulate the ball without much penetration. The front pairing of Fernando Niño and Curro Sánchez pressed selectively, capitalizing on turnovers to launch counters. Andorra's 4-3-3, meanwhile, focused on possession and width, with fullbacks pushing high and midfielders orchestrating play. However, Burgos' compact shape and disciplined midfield made it difficult for Andorra to find gaps, and the visitors' attacks often fizzled out before reaching the final third. Both sides made use of their benches to inject energy, but the tactical balance remained unchanged, with Burgos content to defend their lead and Andorra unable to find a breakthrough.
Turning Point
Curro Sánchez's goal in the 40th minute — a rare Burgos attack clinically finished — shifted the momentum and forced Andorra to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Curro Sánchez
Provided the decisive goal and was a constant threat on the counter, making the difference in a tight contest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
31%
BTTS: Yes
39%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Burgos vs FC Andorra Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Burgos vs FC Andorra?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Burgos vs FC Andorra(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides have shown defensive solidity and a tendency for low-scoring draws, especially Burgos at home and in recent H2H meetings.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams average under 2.5 goals per game over the season, and Burgos home matches are particularly low-scoring.
Double Chance: Draw Or FC Andorra (X2)
FC Andorra's recent attacking form and the model's probabilities suggest they are unlikely to lose, especially given Burgos' recent string of draws.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Burgos vs FC Andorra Prediction
This is a clash between two mid-table sides with contrasting recent form: Burgos have been hard to beat but rarely win, while FC Andorra have shown attacking flair but also inconsistency. Burgos' strong home record and defensive discipline are offset by a lack of goals, while Andorra's recent away win at Leganes and five-goal haul against Las Palmas show their potential threat. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest with little to separate the teams.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →FC Andorra have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches, but their season away record is inconsistent.
- →Burgos have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches, often with low scores.
Attack
- →Recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, with 3 of the last 4 ending under 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Burgos have lost only 3 of 20 home matches and have the league's second-best defensive home record.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side.
🚩 Burgos vs FC Andorra Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Burgos and 3.6 for FC Andorra, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Burgos and FC Andorra Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burgos vs FC Andorra Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burgoslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
FC Andorralast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burgos have drawn three of their last five and won just once, with a notable 1-0 away win at Granada but otherwise struggling for goals. FC Andorra, meanwhile, have won three of their last five, including a 4-0 away victory at Leganes and a 5-1 home win over Las Palmas, but also suffered a recent defeat at Deportivo La Coruna.
Burgos vs FC Andorra — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
- +5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +45.24% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 64% avg
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Burgos vs FC Andorra
The last six meetings show a balanced rivalry, with Burgos winning three and FC Andorra two, but four of those games featured one or zero goals for at least one side. Most recent encounters have been tight, with only one match in the last four exceeding two goals.
Burgos vs FC Andorra Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
4
Burgos wins
1
Draws
2
FC Andorra wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Burgos vs FC Andorra
With no odds provided, it is not possible to identify explicit value markets. However, model probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals are more likely than the market might expect, given both teams' defensive tendencies and recent H2H patterns.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Burgos vs FC Andorra
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some derived stats (shots, possession, etc.) are missing or incomplete, reducing model confidence.
- ⚠️FC Andorra's last 5 averages may be inflated by one high-scoring game.
- ⚠️Lineups are unknown; late changes could impact expected goal output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burgos vs FC Andorra: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.