Las Palmas vs Valladolid Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Las Palmas
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Valladolid
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.5/10Las Palmas and Valladolid Share the Spoils in Four-Goal Thriller
Las Palmas and Valladolid played out a pulsating 2-2 draw at Gran Canaria, with both sides taking turns to seize the initiative in a match brimming with attacking intent and drama. The hosts struck early through Jesé, but Valladolid responded with two quick goals before halftime, only for Las Palmas to claw their way back with a second-half equalizer. The contest was marked by momentum swings and physical battles, as evidenced by the 37 fouls and eight yellow cards. Both teams carved out chances—Valladolid edging the shot count with 15 attempts (seven on target) to Las Palmas' 12 (four on target)—but neither could find the decisive breakthrough, leaving the points deservedly shared.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
5' — Goal
Jesé fires Las Palmas ahead after a slick move down the left.
10' — Goal
Juanmi Latasa equalizes for Valladolid, finishing off a swift counter.
26' — Goal
Valladolid take the lead, capitalizing on a set piece with Víctor Fernández involved in the build-up.
54' — Goal
Iván Jaime levels for Las Palmas, finishing calmly after sustained pressure.
68' — Yellow Card
T. Miyashiro booked as tempers flare in midfield.
77' — Yellow Card
Iván Alejo receives a yellow for a late challenge, reflecting Valladolid's aggressive approach.
Las Palmas
Las Palmas started brightly, asserting themselves with 59% possession and an early goal from Jesé in the fifth minute. Their midfield, orchestrated by Kirian Rodríguez and E. Loiodice, controlled large spells of play, but lapses at the back saw them concede twice before the break. A spirited second-half response, capped by Iván Jaime's 54th-minute equalizer, ensured the hosts salvaged a point. Despite their dominance in possession, Las Palmas struggled to convert control into clear chances, managing just four shots on target.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Valladolid
Valladolid weathered an early storm to respond impressively, equalizing just five minutes after falling behind and then taking the lead midway through the first half. Their direct approach yielded 15 shots (seven on target), and they looked dangerous on the break and from set pieces, winning six corners. However, their aggressive pressing led to 25 fouls and five yellow cards, and they ultimately couldn't hold onto their advantage in the face of Las Palmas' second-half resurgence.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Las Palmas set up in a classic 4-4-2, focusing on midfield control and patient build-up. Their wide players, particularly T. Miyashiro and Iván Jaime, provided width but often found themselves crowded out by Valladolid's compact defensive lines. Valladolid's 4-1-3-2 formation allowed them to congest the midfield and transition quickly, especially through Víctor Fernández and J. Ponceau. The away side's pressing was intense but at times reckless, leading to a high foul count and several bookings. Substitutions in the second half saw both teams inject fresh legs in midfield, but neither altered their tactical shape significantly. Set pieces were a key battleground, with Valladolid looking especially dangerous from corners and free-kicks, while Las Palmas looked to exploit spaces behind Valladolid's full-backs.
Turning Point
Iván Jaime's 54th-minute equalizer shifted momentum back to Las Palmas, ensuring the hosts avoided defeat and setting up a tense final half-hour.
Man of the Match
Víctor Fernández
Instrumental in Valladolid's attacking play, providing an assist and driving the midfield with energy and vision.
Las Palmas vs Valladolid: Match Preview
Las Palmas return to Estadio de Gran Canaria sitting mid-table after a mixed start, with three wins and a goal difference of zero from six matches. Their home record (1W, 1D, 1L) is unremarkable, but they face a Valladolid side languishing in 19th, winless away, and with just five points from six matches. The hosts arrive off a home defeat to Burgos, while Valladolid are coming off a 1-1 away draw at Ceuta, extending their run to just one win in five.
Statistically, this is a clash of a middling attack against one of the league's bluntest forward lines. Las Palmas average 1.33 goals scored and conceded per game, but have kept three clean sheets in their last five and restrict opponents to 3.6 shots on target per match. Valladolid, meanwhile, are averaging only 0.5 goals per game this season and have failed to score in two of their last five. Both teams see the majority of their goals in the second half, and only two of their combined last ten matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Set-piece output is moderate, with Las Palmas averaging 5.2 corners and Valladolid 3.6 per game.
The model expects a low-tempo match, with Las Palmas' superior defensive record at home tipping the balance. The most likely scenario is a narrow home win or a goalless draw, with the underlying rates making a 1-0 or 0-0 outcome more probable than any high-scoring alternative. Valladolid's lack of attacking threat, especially away, is the defining feature in the projected distribution.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
31%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Las Palmas vs Valladolid Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Las Palmas vs Valladolid that most previews miss.
- 1Valladolid have failed to score in four of their last seven away league matches, including this season's opener.
- 2Las Palmas have kept three clean sheets in their last five league games, conceding just once at home in that span.
- 3Only one of the last seven H2H meetings has seen more than two goals scored.
Who do you think wins: Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Las Palmas vs Valladolid(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides are averaging well below 2.5 goals per game this season (Las Palmas 1.33 scored/conceded, Valladolid 0.5 scored, 1.33 conceded), and only 16.67% of Valladolid's matches have gone over 2.5.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Las Palmas Win
Las Palmas have a 48% win probability at home against a Valladolid side winless away and with just 3 goals in 6 matches.
BTTS: No
Valladolid have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and average just 0.5 goals per game this season; Las Palmas have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Las Palmas vs Valladolid Prediction
Las Palmas' defensive solidity at home and Valladolid's ongoing attacking struggles set the stage for a low-scoring contest where the hosts are more likely to edge it. The rate data from both sides points to a match where one goal could be decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Las Palmas average 1.33 goals scored and conceded per game, with a 50% clean sheet rate.
Match Context
- →Valladolid have scored just 3 goals in 6 league matches and are winless away.
- →Only 16.67% of Valladolid's games and 50% of Las Palmas' have gone over 2.5 goals.
🚩 Las Palmas vs Valladolid Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Las Palmas and 4.8 for Valladolid, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 45%.
How Las Palmas and Valladolid Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Las Palmas vs Valladolid Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Valladolidlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Las Palmas' recent form is mixed (LWDLW), but they have shown defensive resilience with three clean sheets in their last five. Valladolid's trajectory is more concerning, with just one win in six, three losses, and an attack that has produced only three goals. Both sides are coming off results that highlight their limitations—Las Palmas a home loss, Valladolid a low-scoring away draw.
Las Palmas vs Valladolid — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Las Palmas vs Valladolid
Las Palmas have held the upper hand in recent encounters, winning four of the last seven matches against Valladolid, including both home games by 2-1 margins. The fixture has tended to be tight, with only one of the last seven meetings producing more than two goals, and draws occurring twice.
Las Palmas vs Valladolid Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
4
Las Palmas wins
2
Draws
1
Valladolid wins
Things to Watch: Las Palmas vs Valladolid
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown some volatility in recent form, with Las Palmas conceding 5 at Girona and Valladolid's defensive numbers fluctuating.
- ⚠️Early season sample sizes (6 games each) limit confidence in long-term trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Las Palmas 1–0 ValladolidLas Palmas are projected to edge a low-scoring contest, with a 1-0 home win the likeliest outcome. The single strongest data point is Valladolid's anaemic attack—just three goals in six matches and a 16.67% over 2.5 rate. The main risk is Las Palmas' own inconsistency in front of goal, which could see the match drift to a goalless draw if they fail to convert their chances.
Las Palmas vs Valladolid: Common Questions
Who will win Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Las Palmas are favoured with a 48% win probability, compared to 18% for Valladolid and 34% for the draw. The hosts' stronger defensive record and Valladolid's poor away form drive this edge.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Both teams to score is rated at just 29%, with 'No' at 71%. Valladolid's average of 0.5 goals per game and Las Palmas' three clean sheets in five suggest a low likelihood of both sides finding the net.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 74% probability, reflecting both teams' low scoring rates—only 16.67% of Valladolid's matches and 50% of Las Palmas' have exceeded two goals this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Las Palmas vs Valladolid: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 27 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.