Las Palmas vs Valladolid Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Las Palmas
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Valladolid
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 1.83(+4% edge)
Match Result
7.3/10Las Palmas Edge Valladolid in Hard-Fought Segunda División Clash
Las Palmas claimed a vital 2-1 victory over Valladolid at the Estadio de Gran Canaria, holding off a late surge from the visitors to secure all three points. The hosts struck early, with Jesé Rodríguez finding the net in just the 2nd minute, setting the tone for a match in which Las Palmas largely dictated play. Manuel Fuster doubled their advantage after the break, but Valladolid responded with a late goal to set up a tense finale. Despite enjoying 56% possession and firing 12 shots (4 on target), Las Palmas were made to work for their win as Valladolid, who managed 8 shots and 7 corners, pressed relentlessly in the closing stages. Ultimately, the home side's early intensity and defensive resilience proved decisive, as they weathered Valladolid’s late onslaught to secure a crucial win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
2' — Goal
Jesé Rodríguez scores to give Las Palmas an early 1-0 lead.
56' — Goal
Manuel Fuster doubles Las Palmas' advantage.
80' — Goal
Chuky pulls one back for Valladolid, setting up a tense finish.
68' — Yellow Card
Las Palmas pick up their only booking of the match.
72' — Yellow Card
Valladolid's first yellow card as they increase their physicality.
85' — Yellow Card
Valladolid receive a second booking amid late pressure.
Las Palmas
Las Palmas started with real intent, taking the lead inside two minutes through Jesé Rodríguez. They controlled the tempo for much of the match, using their 56% possession to build attacks and limit Valladolid's opportunities. The midfield trio, marshaled by Kirian Rodríguez and Ale García, provided both stability and creativity, while the defense remained largely composed until a late concession. Their attacking play was direct and purposeful, with Manuel Fuster's second-half goal giving them a cushion. Although they allowed Valladolid back into the match late on, Las Palmas showed resilience to see out the result.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Valladolid
Valladolid struggled to impose themselves early on, conceding almost immediately and finding themselves chasing the game. They were second best in possession but grew into the contest, especially after falling two goals behind. Their 7 corners and 15 fouls reflected a more aggressive approach in the second half, culminating in a late goal that gave them hope. Despite a spirited push in the final 15 minutes, Valladolid’s inability to create clear chances (just 2 shots on target) ultimately cost them. Defensive lapses at key moments proved decisive.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up with balanced formations, with Las Palmas opting for a solid back four and a midfield trio that allowed them to dictate possession and tempo. Their early pressing paid dividends, catching Valladolid cold and forcing the visitors to play on the back foot for much of the first half. Las Palmas used their width well, with Estanis Pedrola and Ale García supporting the attack from midfield. Valladolid responded with a more aggressive approach after the break, committing more bodies forward and utilizing set pieces to threaten the Las Palmas goal. Their 7 corners and increased fouling indicated a shift to a more physical, direct style as they chased the game. However, their lack of clear-cut chances and slow start ultimately undermined their efforts.
Turning Point
Manuel Fuster's goal in the 56th minute gave Las Palmas a two-goal cushion and proved decisive, allowing the hosts to absorb Valladolid's late pressure.
Man of the Match
Jesé Rodríguez
Set the tone with an early goal and led the line with energy and composure.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
40%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Las Palmas vs Valladolid Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Las Palmas vs Valladolid(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.83
Both teams have low over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 40.5%, Valladolid 43.2%), recent matches trend under, and model probability (0.59) exceeds implied (0.546).
Read more ↓
Match Result: Las Palmas Win@ 1.33
Las Palmas are strong at home (11W/5D/3L), in excellent form, and Valladolid struggle away (4W/5D/9L). Odds are short but model probability is supportive.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Las Palmas vs Valladolid Prediction
Las Palmas enter this match in excellent form, winning four of their last five and boasting a strong home record. Valladolid, by contrast, have struggled on the road and have scored just 0.8 goals per game in their last five, failing to score in three. Las Palmas' defense has been solid, conceding only 0.8 per game recently, and their attack is efficient, especially at home. With both teams trending under for total goals and BTTS, a low-scoring home win is the most likely outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →H2H: Las Palmas unbeaten in last 3 vs Valladolid (2W/1D)
Defence
- →Las Palmas average 1.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded in last 5
Match Context
- →Las Palmas: 4 wins in last 5, strong home record (11W/5D/3L, 30:12 GF:GA)
- →Valladolid: 3 losses in last 5 away, only 4 away wins all season
- →Valladolid failed to score in 3 of last 5, only 0.8 goals/game in that span
- →Both teams' season over 2.5 goal % below league average
🚩 Las Palmas vs Valladolid Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Las Palmas and 4.8 for Valladolid, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How Las Palmas and Valladolid Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Las Palmas vs Valladolid Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Valladolidlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Las Palmas vs Valladolid — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
What History Says: Las Palmas vs Valladolid
Las Palmas vs Valladolid Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
4
Las Palmas wins
2
Draws
1
Valladolid wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Las Palmas vs Valladolid
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Las Palmas vs Valladolid
- ⚠️Some recent Valladolid match stats missing (shots, possession, etc.)—reduces confidence in away attack/defense assessment
- ⚠️No injury data reported, but lineups not confirmed for this match
- ⚠️Valladolid's last away win was several matches ago; possible variance
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Las Palmas vs Valladolid: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.