Cordoba vs Tenerife Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Cordoba
Full Time
3 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Tenerife
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8.3/10Cordoba Edge Five-Goal Thriller as Tenerife See Red in Segunda División Clash
Cordoba claimed a dramatic 3-2 victory over Tenerife at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel, in a match that swung back and forth and was ultimately decided by a late winner and a crucial red card. The hosts started brightly, opening the scoring in just the 3rd minute, but Tenerife responded well, leveling the match before the midway point of the first half. Both sides exchanged goals in a frenetic second period, but Cordoba capitalized on their numerical advantage after Tenerife were reduced to ten men, sealing the win with a decisive strike in the 77th minute. Statistically, Cordoba dominated possession with 62% and peppered the Tenerife goal with 16 shots, 6 of which were on target. Tenerife, despite having only 38% of the ball, remained dangerous on the break and made the most of their 10 shots, but their discipline let them down as they finished with six yellow cards and a red. The result lifts Cordoba, while Tenerife will rue their missed chances and costly indiscipline.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
3' — Goal
Cristian Carracedo opens the scoring for Cordoba with an early strike.
17' — Goal
Enric Gallego equalizes for Tenerife, finishing off a swift counterattack.
23' — Goal
Cordoba restore their lead, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
68' — Goal
Tenerife level again, showing impressive resilience.
73' — Red Card
Tenerife reduced to ten men after a second yellow card, shifting momentum.
77' — Goal
Diego Bri scores the winner for Cordoba, exploiting Tenerife's numerical disadvantage.
Cordoba
Cordoba started on the front foot, translating their early dominance into a quick goal and maintaining control through superior possession. Their midfield trio dictated play, and the attacking line created frequent danger, reflected by 16 total shots and 6 on target. The home side did concede twice, showing some defensive vulnerability, but responded well each time and ultimately found the winner late on. Discipline was a concern, with four yellow cards, but they managed to keep their full complement on the pitch.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tenerife
Tenerife showed fighting spirit, coming from behind twice to keep themselves in contention. Their 4-4-2 setup allowed them to threaten on the counter, and they made the most of set pieces, winning eight corners. However, their inability to control possession and a lack of discipline ultimately cost them, as they finished the match with six yellow cards and a red. The sending off proved decisive, leaving them vulnerable for Cordoba's late winner.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Cordoba deployed a 4-3-3 formation, emphasizing ball retention and width, with their midfield trio dictating tempo and linking well with the front three. Their high possession allowed them to probe Tenerife's defensive lines, while their fullbacks provided additional support in attack. Tenerife set up in a classic 4-4-2, looking to stay compact and hit on the break. They relied on quick transitions and set pieces, as evidenced by their eight corners, but struggled to sustain attacks due to limited possession. Substitutions in the second half aimed to inject fresh legs and shore up the midfield, but Tenerife's red card forced them to drop deeper and absorb pressure. Cordoba pressed their advantage, pushing more men forward and eventually breaking through with the winner. The contrasting tactical approaches made for an open, entertaining contest.
Turning Point
The red card to Tenerife in the 73rd minute, which left them a man down and directly preceded Cordoba's winning goal.
Man of the Match
Diego Bri
Scored the decisive goal in the 77th minute and was a constant threat in Cordoba's attack.
Cordoba vs Tenerife: Match Preview
Cordoba come into this fixture sitting 18th, having lost four of their last five matches and conceding 12 goals in that stretch. Their only recent win came away at Albacete, and at home they have managed just one win from three, scoring three and conceding six. Tenerife, 10th in the table, have steadier form but are also coming off a heavy 0-5 away defeat at Castellón and a draw with Cadiz. Their away record is mixed, with one win, one draw, and one loss, but the goals against tally is inflated by that single big loss.
The statistical matchup is defined by Cordoba's inability to keep clean sheets (0 in 7 matches) and Tenerife's moderate away attack (1.33 goals scored per away game, but 5 of 7 conceded in one match). Cordoba average 15.4 shots per game over the last five but convert poorly (1.2 goals/game), while Tenerife's shot volume is lower (9.8 per game) and their matches tend to be cagey, with only two of their last five seeing both teams score. Discipline could play a role: Cordoba are averaging 3.4 yellows per match, suggesting a risk of cards, especially if they fall behind.
The model expects a low-scoring contest, with neither side likely to dominate. Cordoba's attack is blunted at home and Tenerife's away defence, aside from one outlier, is generally solid. The likeliest outcome is a draw, most probably 1-1, with a slight lean to under 2.5 goals based on the underlying rates. A single moment or set piece could tip the balance, but the distribution of outcomes is tightly clustered around the draw.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cordoba vs Tenerife Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cordoba vs Tenerife that most previews miss.
- 1Cordoba's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 86% of their games this season, but their home matches average just 2.0 goals per game.
- 2Tenerife have conceded 5 of their 7 away goals in a single match; excluding that, their away defence allows just 1.0 goal per game.
- 3Cordoba have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 7 league fixtures, the worst record in the division.
Who do you think wins: Cordoba vs Tenerife?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cordoba vs Tenerife(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
The model assigns a 38% probability to the draw, the highest of the three outcomes, reflecting both teams' low conversion rates and Tenerife's tendency to split points away (1 draw in 3 away games) against Cordoba's inability to build home momentum.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Cordoba's attack is blunted at home (1.0 goals/game), while Tenerife's away matches average just 3.7 total goals but are skewed by one heavy defeat; the underlying rates (Cordoba 1.43 scored/2.29 conceded, Tenerife 1.14/1.29) point to a median goal expectation just under 2.5.
Read more ↓
Cards: Over 4.5
Cordoba average 3.4 yellows per game over the last 5, Tenerife 2.0, making a combined rate above 5 cards per match; discipline issues are a recurring theme for Cordoba, especially when chasing games.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Cordoba vs Tenerife Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a low-scoring contest between a Cordoba side struggling to convert possession into points and a Tenerife outfit whose away record is defined by defensive caution and sporadic attacking output. Both teams' season-long scoring rates are modest, and recent form offers little evidence of a breakout performance from either attack. The likeliest scenario is a tightly contested draw, with neither side able to assert sustained dominance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Tenerife's away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 4 goals for, 7 against (5 conceded in one match).
- →Cordoba have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their seven matches.
Match Context
- →Cordoba's season home record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, 3 goals for, 6 against.
🚩 Cordoba vs Tenerife Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Cordoba and 5.2 for Tenerife, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 51%.
How Cordoba and Tenerife Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cordoba vs Tenerife Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cordobalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tenerifelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cordoba are on a downward trajectory, losing four of their last five matches and conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game in that stretch. Tenerife's recent form is mixed, with a win, two draws, and two losses in their last five, but their only away defeat was a heavy 0-5 loss that skews their defensive stats.
Cordoba vs Tenerife — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 87.5% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 60% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Cordoba vs Tenerife
Cordoba have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning five of the last eight meetings and keeping clean sheets in three of those. However, the last three encounters have all featured goals for both sides, and draws have been rare, occurring just once in the last eight.
Cordoba vs Tenerife Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
6
Cordoba wins
1
Draws
2
Tenerife wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cordoba vs Tenerife
With no bookmaker odds available, it's not possible to identify clear value edges. The model's highest probability is on the draw (38%), which may offer value if market odds are above 2.60. The under 2.5 goals market is also marginally favoured by the model at 54%, but edge assessment is limited without prices.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cordoba vs Tenerife
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams' home/away splits may exaggerate recent results.
- ⚠️Cordoba's defensive numbers are poor, but Tenerife's attack is inconsistent, making the goal market volatile.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cordoba 1–1 TenerifeThe model projects a 1-1 draw, with the strongest statistical anchor being Cordoba's inability to keep clean sheets (0 in 7), offset by Tenerife's generally conservative away approach (excluding one aberrant defeat). The main risk to this forecast is either side capitalising on a defensive lapse—Cordoba's defensive numbers are poor, but Tenerife's attack is not consistently clinical.
Cordoba vs Tenerife: Common Questions
Who will win Cordoba vs Tenerife?
The model gives Cordoba a 27% chance, Tenerife a 35% chance, and the draw a 38% chance. Both teams have struggled for consistency, making the draw marginally the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in Cordoba vs Tenerife?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, reflecting Cordoba's run of games without a clean sheet and Tenerife's moderate away output. The underlying rates are finely balanced, so BTTS is a coin-flip market.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Cordoba vs Tenerife?
The probability of under 2.5 goals is 54%, as Cordoba's home attack is limited and Tenerife's away defence is generally solid except for one heavy defeat. Most outcomes cluster around 1-1 or 1-0 either way.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cordoba vs Tenerife: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.