Burnley vs Portsmouth Predictions
Championship ยท England
Burnley
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Portsmouth
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1โ1
Recommended Bets: Burnley vs Portsmouth
Burnley vs Portsmouth: Match Preview
Burnley enter this fixture sitting 22nd in the table, still searching for a first home win after six attempts, and carrying a 'LDWDL' form string that reflects their struggle for consistency. Portsmouth, 13th and with a balanced record, have shown slightly better form with 'DWWLD' in their last five, including an away win at Norwich and a draw at Wolves. Both teams are in the lower half of the table and will see this as a critical opportunity to stabilise their campaigns.
Statistically, Burnley's matches are among the most open in the division, averaging 3.36 total goals per game and a 73% over 2.5 goals rate. Their attack has been functional (1.45 goals per game), but defensive issues persist, particularly at Turf Moor where they've conceded 10 in six. Portsmouth's away record is more conservative, with only five conceded in six and a 1.0 goals per game away attack, but their last five show an uptick in attacking output (1.4 scored per game). Both sides generate a healthy number of shots (Burnley 14.8, Portsmouth 15.8 per last five), and corners are likely to be plentiful with both averaging over 4 per game.
The model expects a closely contested match, with neither side likely to dominate. Burnley's inability to keep clean sheets (just 1 in 11) and Portsmouth's recent improvement in attack point to both teams finding the net, but the lack of a clinical edge and Portsmouth's relatively solid away defence suggest a draw is the modal outcome. The predicted scoreline is 1-1, with a moderate chance of a late winner either way if defences falter under pressure.
๐ฎ Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react โ then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals ยท model says 1.40
Expected goals ยท model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 ยท 0-1 ยท 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above โ every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration โ not betting advice.
Burnley vs Portsmouth Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Burnley vs Portsmouth that most previews miss.
- 1Burnley have kept just one clean sheet in 11 matches, the lowest rate (9%) in the Championship.
- 2Portsmouth's away matches average only 1.83 total goals, compared to Burnley's home matches at 3.0.
- 3Four of Burnley's last five matches have seen both teams score, while Portsmouth have scored in four of their last five.
Who do you think wins: Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Burnley vs Portsmouth(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1โ1
Both teams average between 1.2 and 1.9 goals scored/conceded per game, with high BTTS rates (Burnley 4/5, Portsmouth 3/5 last five), and the draw is the modal result in their recent home/away splits.
Read more โ
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Burnley matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 8 of 11 (73%) this season, and their last five average 3.4 total goals per game, suggesting a slightly higher goal environment than the league average.
Read more โ
BTTS: Yes
Burnley have failed to score in none of their last five, and Portsmouth have scored in 4 of their last 5; both teams' defensive records are below average, supporting a high BTTS probability.
Read more โ
More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Burnley vs Portsmouth Prediction
Burnley, winless at home this season, face a Portsmouth side with a balanced away record and a marginally better defensive record. Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring, closely contested matches, with Burnley averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game, and Portsmouth sitting at 1.27 for both. The statistical shape points to a contest defined by defensive frailties and moderate attacking output, with neither side showing a clear edge in form or quality.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- โBurnley have not won at home in six attempts (0W, 4D, 2L), conceding 10 goals.
- โPortsmouth's away defence is relatively solid (5 conceded in 6 away), but their attack averages just 1.0 goals per away match.
Match Context
- โBurnley matches see the league's highest over 2.5 goal rate (73%), while Portsmouth's is below average (45%).
๐ฉ Burnley vs Portsmouth Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Burnley and 3.7 for Portsmouth, for an expected total of 8.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 48% ยท Over 10.5: 24%.
How Burnley and Portsmouth Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burnley vs Portsmouth Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals รท 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burnleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Portsmouthlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burnley have struggled for momentum, managing just one win in their last 11 and remaining winless at home, despite a recent 4-0 away victory at Watford. Portsmouth's recent form is steadier, with two wins and a draw in their last five, including a notable away win at Norwich and a home win over Sheffield United.
Burnley vs Portsmouth โ Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.73% of games this season
- +High-volume attack โ 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack โ 16 shots/game
What History Says: Burnley vs Portsmouth
Head-to-head meetings are limited, with only four since 2011. The most recent at Turf Moor ended 2-1 to Burnley, but the overall record is balanced, with two Burnley wins, one Portsmouth win, and one draw. Recent encounters have tended to be close, low-scoring affairs.
Burnley vs Portsmouth Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
Burnley wins
1
Draws
1
Portsmouth wins
Things to Watch: Burnley vs Portsmouth
- โ ๏ธNo bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- โ ๏ธSmall sample size for head-to-head data (only four matches, two in the last 15 years).
- โ ๏ธBoth teams have shown volatility in recent results, increasing variance around the mean.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk โ always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Burnley 1โ1 PortsmouthThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven primarily by Burnley's high BTTS and over 2.5 rates clashing with Portsmouth's solid but unspectacular away defence. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Burnley's defensive frailty at home is exposed by a Portsmouth side that has recently found more attacking fluency, tipping the balance towards a narrow away win.
Burnley vs Portsmouth: Common Questions
Who will win Burnley vs Portsmouth?
The model gives Burnley and Portsmouth each a 32% chance of victory, with the draw slightly favoured at 36%. Both teams have similar scoring and concession rates, and recent form does not separate them.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Yes is the more probable outcome, with a 61% chance according to the model. Burnley have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and Portsmouth have scored in four of their last five matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Over 2.5 goals has a 57% probability, reflecting Burnley's league-high over 2.5 rate (73%) and their average of 3.36 total goals per game this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burnley vs Portsmouth: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline โ season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes โ see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.