Millwall vs Derby Predictions
Championship · England
Millwall
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Derby
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Millwall vs Derby
Millwall vs Derby: Match Preview
Millwall approach this fixture mid-table, sitting 12th with a balanced record (4W, 3D, 4L) and a neutral goal difference. Their recent form is steady rather than spectacular—one win and three draws in their last five, but they remain difficult to beat at The Den. Derby, by contrast, are struggling near the foot of the table (23rd), with just one win all season and a negative goal differential of -11, coming in off a five-match winless streak.
The statistical matchup is defined by Millwall's attacking output at home (1.83 goals per game) and Derby's defensive frailty on the road (2.0 conceded per away match). Both sides have shown a tendency for open games: Millwall's matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 73% of cases, while Derby's have hit that mark in 55%. Set-piece threat is notable, with Millwall averaging 6.6 corners per game in their last five, and both teams combining for over 10 corners per match. Discipline could play a role, as Millwall have averaged 2.6 yellows per game recently.
Given these rates, the model expects a contest where Millwall's attack creates early pressure, but Derby's ability to generate shots (15.4 per game over their last five) means they are likely to register on the scoresheet. The most probable outcome is a 2-1 home win, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both rating as above-average likelihoods.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Millwall vs Derby Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Millwall vs Derby that most previews miss.
- 1Millwall's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 8 of 11 league games (73%), the highest rate among mid-table sides.
- 2Derby have kept just one clean sheet all season (9% clean sheet rate), conceding in each of their last five.
- 3The last five H2H meetings at The Den have produced three draws and just one Derby win, with Millwall scoring in all five.
Who do you think wins: Millwall vs Derby?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Millwall vs Derby(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Millwall's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 73% of league games (8/11), and both teams average over 1.5 goals conceded per game; the model gives a 59% probability for over 2.5, above typical market averages.
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Match Result: Millwall Win
Millwall's home scoring rate (1.83 per home game) and Derby's away defensive record (2.0 conceded per away) tilt the balance; Derby have lost 7 of 11 and have just one clean sheet all season.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 7 of Derby's 11 matches and 8 of Millwall's, with each side showing defensive vulnerabilities and only one clean sheet between them in the last 10 combined games.
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More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Millwall vs Derby Prediction
Statistical rates point to a moderately high-scoring contest, with Millwall's superior home attack and Derby's porous defence making the home side favourites. The most likely scenario is Millwall taking control early, but Derby's tendency to find a consolation keeps BTTS and over 2.5 in play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Head-to-heads at The Den have favoured Millwall (5 wins in last 10 meetings), with 6 of those 10 finishing under 2.5, but recent form trends higher.
Defence
- →Derby have the league's second-worst defence (1.82 conceded per game) and just one win from 11.
Match Context
- →Millwall's home games average 3.17 goals (11 for, 8 against in 6 matches).
🚩 Millwall vs Derby Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 7.2 corners for Millwall and 4.8 for Derby, for an expected total of 12. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (75%). Over 8.5: 84% · Over 10.5: 65%.
How Millwall and Derby Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Millwall vs Derby Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Millwalllast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Derbylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Millwall's recent form is stable, with one win and three draws in their last five matches, and only one defeat. Derby, meanwhile, are on a downward trajectory, winless in five and having lost seven of their opening eleven, with defensive lapses a recurring theme.
Millwall vs Derby — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.73% of games this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Millwall vs Derby
Millwall hold the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning five of the last ten and unbeaten at home to Derby since 2020. Draws are frequent in this fixture, with three in the last ten, and scorelines have often been tight, though Millwall have scored in every home H2H over that span.
Millwall vs Derby Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Millwall wins
3
Draws
2
Derby wins
Things to Watch: Millwall vs Derby
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value edges and expected value cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent defensive instability increases variance in goal markets.
- ⚠️Derby have drawn 3 of their last 10 meetings with Millwall, suggesting some risk to the home win probability.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Millwall 2–1 DerbyMillwall are projected to edge this 2-1, with the home side's superior scoring rate (1.83 per home game) and Derby's defensive struggles (1.82 conceded per match) providing the strongest statistical foundation. The main risk is Derby's ability to grind out draws in this fixture, as seen in three of the last ten H2H meetings, and Millwall's own inconsistency when defending leads.
Millwall vs Derby: Common Questions
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
The model gives Millwall a 50% chance of victory, with a 29% probability for a draw and 21% for a Derby win. Millwall's strong home attack and Derby's poor defensive record are the key factors.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Millwall vs Derby?
There's a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals, driven by Millwall's high-scoring matches (73% over 2.5 this season) and Derby's defensive issues (1.82 conceded per game).
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
Both teams to score is rated at 56% probability. Millwall have conceded in four of their last five, and Derby have scored in four of their last five away games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Millwall vs Derby: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.