Celtic vs Rangers Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Celtic
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Rangers
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 3.5(+33% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Celtic vs Rangers Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Celtic vs Rangers?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Celtic vs Rangers(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 3.5
Both teams have scored in 9 of their last 10 H2H meetings and each has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 matches. The model probability is significantly higher than the implied odds, indicating strong value.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.7
The draw has occurred in 5 of the last 10 H2H fixtures and the model sees a higher draw probability than the market, suggesting a modest value edge.
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The Case For This Celtic vs Rangers Prediction
Celtic enter this Old Firm clash in exceptional form, riding a five-match winning streak and boasting a formidable home record. Rangers, by contrast, have stumbled with three consecutive defeats, conceding heavily despite a strong attack. The fixture is historically tight, but Celtic's momentum and recent home dominance give them the edge, though both teams' attacking strengths point to goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Celtic's five-match winning streak and strong home record (14W, 1D, 3L at home).
Attack
- →Both teams average over 1.8 goals scored per game this season.
Defence
- →Rangers' three consecutive losses and no clean sheets in last five.
- →Celtic's defence slightly stronger at home (0.78 goals conceded per home game).
Match Context
- →9 of last 10 H2H meetings saw both teams score.
- →High card count likely: 8 yellows in this fixture, and both teams average over 2 yellows/game recently.
🚩 Celtic vs Rangers Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Celtic and 4.8 for Rangers, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 61% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Celtic and Rangers Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Celtic vs Rangers Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Celticlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Rangerslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Celtic are in red-hot form, winning their last five matches and scoring at least two goals in each. Rangers, meanwhile, have hit a rough patch with three straight defeats, conceding eight goals in that span, though they continue to score regularly.
Celtic vs Rangers — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Celtic vs Rangers
The rivalry is historically even, with five draws in the last ten encounters and both sides enjoying wins away from home. High-scoring draws and both teams scoring are recurring themes, with only one clean sheet in the last ten meetings.
Celtic vs Rangers Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Celtic wins
5
Draws
3
Rangers wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Celtic vs Rangers
The model identifies significant value in 'Both Teams to Score – Yes' at 3.5 odds, as the probability of both teams scoring is much higher than market expectations. The draw is also slightly undervalued by bookmakers, offering a modest edge for punters seeking value in a typically close derby.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Celtic vs Rangers
- ⚠️Old Firm derbies can be unpredictable and emotionally charged.
- ⚠️Rangers' away form is solid (only 3 away losses all season), so upset risk remains.
- ⚠️Recent high-scoring trends may regress, especially with defensive adjustments.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineup rotations possible late in season.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Celtic vs Rangers: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.