Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Chapecoense-sc
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Fluminense
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Fluminense Win
@ 1.83(+5% edge)
Recommended Bets: Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: Match Preview
Chapecoense enter this round rooted to the bottom of the table with just three wins from 29 matches and a goal difference of -31. Their recent form is bleak—two heavy defeats in their last two league outings (1-4 at home to Atletico Paranaense, 0-4 away at Vitoria)—and they have managed only two home victories all season. Fluminense, meanwhile, sit fourth and are still in the hunt for a Libertadores place, though their away form is patchy (three wins, six draws, six losses) and they arrive off back-to-back defeats in all competitions.
Statistically, the gulf is clear. Chapecoense's defence has collapsed, conceding 2.36 per home game and allowing 21 shots in their last home match. Fluminense's attack is among the league's most productive, with 1.6 goals per game overall and 20 scored in 15 away matches. Both sides have seen over 2.5 goals in more than half their games (Chapecoense 58.6%, Fluminense 53.3%), and Fluminense's last five have featured nine second-half goals, suggesting a tendency for late action. Set pieces may play a role, but Fluminense's higher shot and possession numbers (56.4% average in last five) point to control.
The model projects Fluminense to create the bulk of chances, especially after the break, and Chapecoense's defensive numbers offer little resistance. While the away side's inconsistent road record and Chapecoense's occasional attacking flashes (scoring in four of last five) temper confidence, the underlying rates make a Fluminense win the most likely outcome, with a 2-1 scoreline the modal result.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense that most previews miss.
- 1Chapecoense have conceded 33 goals in 14 home matches—2.36 per game, worst in the league.
- 2Fluminense have scored in 87% (13/15) of away matches this season.
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, both teams have scored in 60% of matches.
Who do you think wins: Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Fluminense Win@ 1.84
Fluminense average 1.6 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game, while Chapecoense have the league's worst defensive rate (2.1 conceded per game) and just two home wins all season. The model gives Fluminense a 57% win probability versus 54.6% implied by the odds.
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The Case For This Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Prediction
This fixture pits the league's bottom side, Chapecoense, against a Fluminense team pushing for a top-four finish. Chapecoense's defensive frailty is stark, with 61 goals conceded in 29 matches (2.1 per game) and a home record of just two wins from 14. Fluminense, fourth in the table, have been inconsistent away but possess a positive goal difference and a much higher points-per-game rate. The statistical matchup is lopsided: Chapecoense's last five league games have seen them concede an average of 2.4 goals while scoring just 0.8, and their season clean sheet rate is under 7%. Fluminense's attack is robust, averaging 1.6 goals per game (20 in 15 away matches), and their shot output is nearly double that of Chapecoense over the last five games (12.2 to 6.8). Both sides tend to see goals after the break—Fluminense with seven second-half goals in their last five, Chapecoense with three first-half and just one second-half goal in the same span. The model expects Fluminense to control possession and generate more high-quality chances, especially after half-time. Chapecoense's home defensive record (2.36 conceded per game) and Fluminense's attacking depth point to a likely away win, though a high-scoring draw remains a plausible risk if Chapecoense can exploit set pieces or Fluminense's occasional away lapses.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Fluminense average 1.6 goals scored per game and have scored in 13 of 15 away matches.
Defence
- →Chapecoense have the league's worst defence, conceding 2.1 goals per game and just 6.9% clean sheets.
- →Chapecoense's home record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, 19 scored, 33 conceded.
🚩 Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Chapecoense-sc and 3 for Fluminense, for an expected total of 8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 41% · Over 10.5: 18%.
How Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chapecoense-sclast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fluminenselast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chapecoense come in on a two-game losing streak, conceding eight goals in those matches, and have just one win in their last ten league outings. Fluminense have lost their last two (one in the league, one in Libertadores), but prior to that won two straight, including a 4-0 home victory over Coritiba, and remain in the top four.
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense
Fluminense have dominated recent meetings, winning five of the last ten and three of the last four against Chapecoense. Both teams have scored in four of the last six encounters, and Chapecoense have not beaten Fluminense at home since 2017.
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Chapecoense-sc wins
3
Draws
5
Fluminense wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense
The model's strongest value edge is a small positive expected value on Fluminense at 1.83, with a 57% win probability slightly above the market's implied 54.6%. Most other markets are efficiently priced, with no clear edge on over/under 2.5 or BTTS given current odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense
- ⚠️Fluminense's away record is not dominant (3 wins in 15), and they have lost two of their last three overall.
- ⚠️Chapecoense have scored in 4 of their last 5 despite poor results, suggesting some attacking resilience.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chapecoense-sc 1–2 FluminenseThe model calls a 2-1 away win for Fluminense, driven by Chapecoense's league-worst defensive record (2.1 conceded per game) and Fluminense's consistent attacking output. The biggest risk is Fluminense's mediocre away record—if they fail to convert early pressure or Chapecoense find a set-piece goal, a draw or high-scoring stalemate is plausible.
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: Common Questions
Who will win Chapecoense vs Fluminense?
Fluminense are favoured with a 57% win probability, compared to 16% for Chapecoense and 27% for the draw. This is based on Fluminense's superior attack (1.6 goals per game) and Chapecoense's defensive struggles (2.1 conceded per game).
Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Fluminense?
The model gives a 52% probability for both teams to score, reflecting Chapecoense's record of scoring in four of their last five and Fluminense's strong attack. However, both sides have also failed to score in one of their last five.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Chapecoense vs Fluminense?
There's a 54% model probability for over 2.5 goals, in line with both teams' season rates (Chapecoense 58.6%, Fluminense 53.3%). With both defences prone to conceding, the goal environment is expected to be above average.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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