RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
RB Bragantino
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Chapecoense-sc
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.8(+13% edge)
Recommended Bets: RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc: Match Preview
Bragantino return to Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques sitting mid-table but with a clear opportunity to consolidate their top-half status against a Chapecoense side rooted to the foot of the table. The hosts have collected five points from their last five matches (form: DWDLL), including a 4-2 home win over Cruzeiro, while Chapecoense arrive on a three-game losing streak and have managed just three wins all season. With 41 points to Chapecoense's 18, the gulf in quality and confidence is stark, and the visitors are running out of time to avoid relegation.
Statistically, this matchup is defined by Bragantino's high shot volume (21.4 per game last five) and Chapecoense's porous defence, which has shipped 62 goals in 30 matches. Bragantino's home attack is robust, averaging 1.6 goals per match, while Chapecoense's away attack is the league's bluntest, with just 11 goals in 16 away games and only 2.4 shots on target per match over their last five. Set pieces could play a role, with Bragantino averaging over seven corners per game recently, and discipline may be a factor given both sides average over one yellow card per game.
The model expects Bragantino to dominate possession and territory, with a strong chance of an early breakthrough (62% for the first goal before 30 minutes) and a 70% likelihood the hosts score first. Chapecoense's lack of attacking threat and defensive frailty point towards a home win to nil, with the most likely outcome a 2-0 victory for Bragantino. The main risk is Bragantino's occasional lapses at the back, but Chapecoense's current form offers little evidence they can capitalise.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc
The market is heavily weighted towards Bragantino, leaving little value on the home win or draw. However, 'BTTS: No' at 1.8 stands out, with the model finding a 13% edge due to Chapecoense's consistently poor away attack and Bragantino's ability to limit chances at home. Other markets, including over/under goals, are closely aligned with model probabilities, indicating limited value elsewhere.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.81
Chapecoense have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and average just 0.6 goals per game over that span, while Bragantino have kept both teams from scoring in 1 of their last 5; with Chapecoense's away attack producing only 11 goals in 16 away matches and Bragantino's defensive numbers steady at home, the model finds a 13% edge over the market on 'BTTS: No'.
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RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc that most previews miss.
- 1Chapecoense have failed to score in 44% of their away matches this season, the highest rate in Serie A.
- 2Bragantino's home matches average 2.73 goals, but only 39% have gone over 2.5, indicating a tendency for controlled wins rather than shootouts.
- 3The last three H2H meetings have all produced at least two goals, with Bragantino winning both recent encounters.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.25
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 3-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction
Bookmakers rate Bragantino as overwhelming favourites, but the data actually paints a picture of a home side with solid but unspectacular recent form facing a Chapecoense team in freefall. Bragantino's attack has been efficient at home (24 goals in 15 matches), while Chapecoense's away defence is the worst in the league, conceding 29 in 16. The market's short price on the home win is justified, but the real value lies in Chapecoense's anaemic attack failing to breach the hosts. Bragantino's last five matches have seen them average 21.4 shots and 7.4 on target per game, suggesting sustained pressure, while Chapecoense muster just 2.4 shots on target and 0.6 goals per game over the same period. The away side's clean sheet rate sits at a paltry 6.7% for the season, and they've failed to score in two of their last five. Bragantino's games have seen both teams score in four of five, but Chapecoense's current attacking malaise and their inability to create high-quality chances on the road tilt this matchup towards a home win to nil. The model expects Bragantino to assert control early, with a 62% chance of the first goal before the half-hour mark and a 70% likelihood the hosts score first. Chapecoense's defensive frailty and lack of cutting edge up front make a clean sheet for the home side more likely than the odds suggest, with the most probable scoreline a 2-0 Bragantino victory.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Chapecoense have lost 11 of 16 away matches, conceding 29 goals on the road.
- →Chapecoense's last five Serie A matches: LLLDL, with only three goals scored and 11 conceded.
Match Context
- →Bragantino average 1.6 goals per home game and 7.2 corners per match over their last five.
🚩 RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.6 corners for RB Bragantino and 4.5 for Chapecoense-sc, for an expected total of 11.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 78% · Over 10.5: 55%.
How RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
RB Bragantinolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chapecoense-sclast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bragantino have picked up five points from their last five matches, mixing a high-scoring home win with two draws and two narrow defeats. Their attack remains lively, but defensive lapses have cost them points. Chapecoense, by contrast, are mired in a three-game losing streak and have managed just one point from their last five league matches, with a -9 goal difference over that span.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 21 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc
Bragantino have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 away victory earlier this season. Only one of the last five has ended in a draw, and home advantage has often proved decisive in this fixture.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
3
RB Bragantino wins
1
Draws
1
Chapecoense-sc wins
Things to Watch: RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc
- ⚠️Bragantino have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, so BTTS risk is non-negligible.
- ⚠️Chapecoense's rare away wins have come against similarly struggling sides; a defensive set-piece or error could punish complacency.
- ⚠️Market is heavily skewed towards Bragantino, so late team news or unexpected line-ups could move probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
RB Bragantino 2–0 Chapecoense-scThe model projects a 2-0 win for Bragantino, driven chiefly by Chapecoense's league-worst away defence (29 conceded in 16) and their anaemic attack (0.6 goals per game last five). The strongest value is on 'BTTS: No' at 1.8, with a 13% model edge. The biggest risk is Bragantino's recent run of conceding in four of their last five, but Chapecoense's lack of firepower and poor shot metrics suggest the visitors are unlikely to punish any defensive lapses.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc: Common Questions
Who will win RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc?
RB Bragantino are strong favourites with a 72% model probability of victory, compared to just 9% for Chapecoense and 19% for the draw. The home side's superior attack and Chapecoense's defensive struggles underpin this projection.
Will both teams score in Bragantino vs Chapecoense?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams will not score, with Chapecoense averaging just 0.6 goals per game over their last five and failing to score in two of those matches. Bragantino's defensive record at home further supports this angle.
Is there any value in betting on Chapecoense at high odds?
Despite the long odds (9.5), the model assigns only a 9% chance to a Chapecoense win, which is actually lower than the implied probability from the odds. There is no positive value in backing the away side based on current form and underlying numbers.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 21 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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