Charleroi vs Antwerp Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Charleroi
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Antwerp
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 3.15(+27% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Charleroi Edge Antwerp in Tight Contest at Stade du Pays
Charleroi secured a vital 2-1 victory over Antwerp in a closely fought Jupiler Pro League encounter at the Stade du Pays de Charleroi. The hosts took the lead on the half-hour mark and doubled their advantage midway through the second half, before Antwerp pulled one back late on to set up a tense finish. Despite Antwerp's superior possession (55%) and a flurry of nine corners, Charleroi were clinical with their chances, registering five shots on target from 13 attempts. The match was marked by determined midfield battles and disciplined defending, with both sides picking up multiple yellow cards as tempers flared in key moments.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
30' — Goal
Aurélien Scheidler puts Charleroi ahead with a composed finish.
63' — Goal
Charleroi double their lead after a well-worked move finished by Patrick Pflücke.
75' — Yellow Card
Charleroi defender booked as Antwerp push forward.
81' — Yellow Card
Antwerp midfielder shown yellow for a tactical foul.
90' — Goal
Vincent Janssen pulls one back for Antwerp, setting up a nervy finish.
Charleroi
Charleroi delivered a disciplined and opportunistic performance, making the most of their 45% possession to strike at crucial moments. Their 4-2-3-1 formation provided defensive solidity and allowed them to transition quickly, resulting in two well-taken goals. The backline, marshaled by Mohamed Koné in goal, absorbed sustained pressure, especially in the closing stages, to preserve the lead until the dying minutes. While Charleroi conceded late, their ability to capitalize on limited attacking opportunities and maintain composure under pressure was decisive. Three yellow cards highlighted their combative approach in midfield and defense.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Antwerp
Antwerp controlled the majority of possession (55%) and created numerous set-piece opportunities with nine corners, but struggled to convert their dominance into goals. Their 3-1-4-2 setup allowed for fluid movement in midfield, but the final ball often lacked precision, resulting in only three shots on target from 12 attempts. A late goal in the 90th minute provided hope, but ultimately Antwerp's profligacy in front of goal and inability to break down Charleroi's disciplined defense proved costly. Two yellow cards reflected their frustration as they chased the game.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Charleroi's 4-2-3-1 formation prioritized defensive stability, with two holding midfielders shielding the back four and quick transitions through the wide areas. This setup allowed them to absorb Antwerp's pressure and strike on the break, especially in the first and middle thirds of the match. The hosts were compact and disciplined, limiting space for Antwerp's creative midfielders. Antwerp's 3-1-4-2 formation aimed for midfield control and width, pushing wing-backs high and committing numbers forward. However, this left them exposed to counters, and their inability to convert set-piece dominance into goals proved costly. Late substitutions and tactical tweaks increased attacking impetus, but Charleroi's defensive organization held firm until the final moments.
Turning Point
Charleroi's second goal in the 63rd minute gave them a crucial cushion and forced Antwerp to chase the game, ultimately proving decisive.
Man of the Match
Patrick Pflücke
Scored a vital goal, provided an assist, and anchored Charleroi's midfield with composure and creativity.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Charleroi vs Antwerp Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Charleroi vs Antwerp(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.75
Both teams are out of form, have nearly identical season records, and the H2H is balanced with several recent draws. Model probability for a draw is significantly higher than the odds-implied probability.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 3.15
Both teams average low goals recently (Charleroi 0.8, Antwerp 0.6 scored per game last 5), and Antwerp's away games are often low scoring. Model sees strong value on under 2.5 goals at these odds.
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BTTS: No@ 2.04
Both teams failed to score in 2 of their last 5, and Antwerp's attack is struggling. Model gives a slight edge to BTTS 'no' at these odds.
More Jupiler Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Charleroi vs Antwerp Prediction
This is a mid-table clash between two teams in poor recent form, both struggling to create and finish chances. Charleroi have lost four of their last five, despite decent underlying numbers for shots and possession, while Antwerp have also failed to win in four, with a particularly blunt attack (0.6 goals per game last 5). Both teams are defensively vulnerable, but Antwerp's away record is weak, and Charleroi's home form is inconsistent. The H2H is balanced, with several low-scoring games and draws. Expect a cagey match with few clear chances, likely decided by a single goal or ending in a stalemate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams are on a winless streak and have scored less than 1 goal per game in their last 5.
Defence
- →Last 5 matches: Charleroi 0.8 scored/1.8 conceded per game; Antwerp 0.6 scored/0.8 conceded.
- →Both teams have a clean sheet rate near 23% for the season.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Charleroi's home record (4W 5D 6L) is only slightly better than Antwerp's away record (3W 4D 8L).
- →H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings were draws or decided by a single goal.
- →Season over 2.5 goal %: Charleroi 46.7%, Antwerp 35.5%; both below league average.
🚩 Charleroi vs Antwerp Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Charleroi and 5.3 for Antwerp, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 51%.
How Charleroi and Antwerp Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Charleroi vs Antwerp Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Charleroilast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Antwerplast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Charleroi vs Antwerp — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Charleroi vs Antwerp
Charleroi vs Antwerp Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Charleroi wins
1
Draws
3
Antwerp wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Charleroi vs Antwerp
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Charleroi vs Antwerp
- ⚠️Both teams' form is poor, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Motivation may be variable as both are mid-table with little to play for.
- ⚠️Goal and card predictions have moderate confidence due to recent volatility.
- ⚠️No confirmed lineups available at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Charleroi vs Antwerp: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 5 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.