Charleroi vs St. Truiden Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Charleroi
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
St. Truiden
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Charleroi Win
@ 1.97
Recommended Bets: Charleroi vs St. Truiden
Charleroi vs St. Truiden: Match Preview
Charleroi come into this fixture fourth in the table, having won nine of eleven and boasting a perfect home record outside a single slip to Union St. Gilloise. Their recent form is strong, with four wins in five and 13 goals scored in that span. St. Truiden, by contrast, sit 12th, with only one away win and a negative goal difference, but their attack has found the net in every away outing so far.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Charleroi's attacking firepower at home (15 goals in 5 matches) and St. Truiden's defensive frailties on the road (13 conceded in 5 away). Both sides average over 2.5 goals per game, and St. Truiden's games are the league's most BTTS-prone, with 4 of their last 5 featuring goals for both sides. Charleroi's shot volume (16 per match) and set-piece threat (5 corners/game) should test a St. Truiden back line that has struggled under pressure.
The model expects a match with above-average goal volume, driven by Charleroi's attacking rates and St. Truiden's tendency to trade goals. The likeliest scenario is a narrow home win, but St. Truiden's away scoring rate (2.4 per game) keeps the BTTS and over 2.5 markets in play. Defensive lapses on both sides suggest a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline is most probable.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.00
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Charleroi vs St. Truiden Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Charleroi vs St. Truiden that most previews miss.
- 1St. Truiden's away matches average 5.0 total goals, the highest road figure in the league.
- 2Charleroi have scored in every home match and conceded in four of five at home this season.
- 3The last three Charleroi-St. Truiden meetings at this venue have all seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Charleroi vs St. Truiden(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Charleroi Win@ 1.97
Charleroi have won 4 of 5 at home this season (15 scored, 8 conceded) and average 2.36 goals per game, while St. Truiden have just 1 away win and concede 2.6 per away match. The edge is slim on current odds but the home win is the most probable outcome.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.53
Both teams have over 2.5 goals in over 63% (Charleroi) and 72% (St. Truiden) of league matches; combined, their games average 3.27 goals per match.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.48
Charleroi have conceded in 4 of their last 5 and St. Truiden have scored in every away match this season; both teams to score has landed in 4 of the last 5 for the visitors.
Read more ↓
More Jupiler Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Charleroi vs St. Truiden Prediction
The statistical profile points to a high-scoring contest with Charleroi's home attack (3.0 goals/game at home) facing a St. Truiden defence allowing 2.6 goals per away game. Both teams are above league average for over 2.5 goals, and St. Truiden's matches see the highest BTTS rate in the division. Charleroi's superior home record and attacking depth should edge a fixture that regularly produces goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Charleroi have won 4 of their 5 home games; St. Truiden have only 1 away win all season.
Defence
- →Charleroi average 3.0 goals per home match, St. Truiden concede 2.6 per away game.
Match Context
- →Over 2.5 goals has landed in 7 of 11 (63.6%) Charleroi games and 8 of 11 (72.7%) St. Truiden games.
🚩 Charleroi vs St. Truiden Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Charleroi and 5.2 for St. Truiden, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Charleroi and St. Truiden Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Charleroi vs St. Truiden Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Charleroilast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
St. Truidenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Charleroi are on a strong run, winning four of their last five and scoring 14 in that span, while St. Truiden have been more erratic but just posted a 4-1 win last time out. The home side's only recent defeat came away at Antwerp, while the visitors have struggled for consistency, especially on the road.
Charleroi vs St. Truiden — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.73% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
What History Says: Charleroi vs St. Truiden
Charleroi have the historical edge at home, winning three of the last six against St. Truiden with only one defeat. Recent meetings at this venue have been open, with both teams scoring in the last three and two ending 2-1 to Charleroi.
Charleroi vs St. Truiden Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Charleroi wins
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Charleroi vs St. Truiden
There is little clear value in the main markets at current odds, with the model's probabilities closely tracking bookmaker prices. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are both highly probable but already well-reflected in the odds, so any late price movement could open up value on the home win or goal markets.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Charleroi vs St. Truiden
- ⚠️Both sides have shown volatility in recent results, with St. Truiden's away attack (2.4 goals/game) capable of punishing lapses.
- ⚠️Charleroi's defence has kept just 1 clean sheet in the last 5 and conceded multiple goals in 2 of those.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but late changes to lineups could affect attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Charleroi 2–1 St. TruidenThe model projects a 2-1 win for Charleroi, anchored by their 3.0 goals/game home average and St. Truiden's 2.6 goals conceded per away match. The main risk to this outcome is St. Truiden's unpredictable attack, which has produced multi-goal performances away from home and could punish any defensive lapses.
Charleroi vs St. Truiden: Common Questions
Who will win Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Charleroi are favoured with a 48% win probability, supported by a 4-1-0 home record and an average of 3.0 goals per home game. St. Truiden's away record (1-1-3) and defensive numbers suggest the hosts have the edge.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Yes is rated at 63%, as Charleroi have conceded in 4 of 5 at home and St. Truiden have scored in every away match this season. Both teams to score has landed in 4 of St. Truiden's last 5 league games.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 68%, with both teams among the league leaders for high-scoring matches (Charleroi 63.6%, St. Truiden 72.7% over 2.5). Their combined match average is 3.27 goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Charleroi vs St. Truiden: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.