Charlton vs Bolton Predictions
Championship · England
Charlton
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Bolton
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 1.95(+19% edge)
Recommended Bets: Charlton vs Bolton
Charlton vs Bolton: Match Preview
Charlton and Bolton enter this round tied on 14 points and separated only by goal difference, both sitting just above the relegation zone. Charlton's recent form is a concern, with no wins in their last five (LLDDL) and 11 goals conceded in that stretch. Bolton, though inconsistent, have picked up two wins in their last five and hit four goals away at Norwich, but also suffered a heavy 1-5 defeat to Middlesbrough last time out.
The statistical matchup is shaped by both teams' defensive frailties and Bolton's superior attacking output. Charlton's home record is steady but unspectacular (5 scored, 5 conceded in 6), while Bolton have scored 9 and conceded 11 in 6 away matches. Both sides average over 2 goals conceded per game in their last five, and each has seen BTTS in 4 of those 5. Set-piece data is moderate—Charlton average 3.8 corners and 15 fouls per match recently, while Bolton's 4 corners and 10.4 fouls suggest neither side dominates dead-ball situations. Discipline could play a role, with Charlton averaging 3 yellow cards per game in their last five.
The model projects a match with a high probability of goals at both ends, favouring a 1-2 away win but with a substantial draw risk. Bolton's higher shot volume (15 per match in the last five) and away scoring rate give them the edge, but both teams' defensive volatility means a 2-2 or 1-1 result is also plausible. The likeliest scenario is both teams finding the net, with Bolton's extra attacking punch proving decisive.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Charlton vs Bolton Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Charlton vs Bolton that most previews miss.
- 1Bolton's away matches average 3.33 total goals this season (9 scored, 11 conceded in 6).
- 2Charlton have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches.
- 3The last ten H2H meetings have produced BTTS on six occasions, with only one ending 0-0.
Who do you think wins: Charlton vs Bolton?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Charlton vs Bolton(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 1.95
Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches and are conceding over 2 goals per game on recent form, with Charlton averaging 2.2 conceded and Bolton 2.2 as well. The model gives a 61% probability to BTTS, well above the implied 51% from the odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2
Charlton have a 50% season over 2.5 rate, but Bolton's is 66.7%, and both teams' recent matches average over 3 goals. The model's 59% probability for over 2.5 goals is notably higher than the market's 50% implied.
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Match Result: Bolton Win@ 2.6
Bolton's away scoring rate (1.5 goals/game) and Charlton's home scoring struggles (0.83 goals/game) tilt the edge to the visitors, with the model giving them a 42% win probability versus 38% implied by the odds.
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More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Charlton vs Bolton Prediction
Statistically, this fixture places two bottom-half sides with nearly identical points and goal difference, but Bolton's attack is notably more productive, especially away from home. Both teams are conceding at a high rate, with over 2 goals per game allowed in the last five, and neither side has shown consistent defensive solidity. The data points to a match with a high likelihood of both teams scoring and a strong chance of three or more goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Bolton average 1.5 goals scored per away game, while Charlton average just 0.83 at home.
Match Context
- →Bolton's season over 2.5 goals rate is 66.7%, significantly above league average.
🚩 Charlton vs Bolton Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Charlton and 3.8 for Bolton, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 47% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Charlton and Bolton Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Charlton vs Bolton Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Charltonlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Boltonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Charlton have stalled with no wins in five and a negative goal difference, conceding 11 goals in that stretch. Bolton have been erratic but more potent in attack, winning two of their last five and scoring at least once in four of those games. Both teams are leaking goals, but Bolton's recent away form (two wins, two draws in six) is a slight positive.
Charlton vs Bolton — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Charlton vs Bolton
Bolton have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning five of the last ten and three of the last four at Charlton's ground. Goals are a regular feature in this fixture, with six of the last ten seeing both teams score and only one goalless draw since 2016.
Charlton vs Bolton Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Charlton wins
2
Draws
5
Bolton wins
Things to Watch: Charlton vs Bolton
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are not available at time of writing; value calculations use typical market prices.
- ⚠️Recent form sample is small and both teams have shown volatility in defensive performance.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but late lineup changes could impact attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Charlton 1–2 BoltonThe model calls this 2-1 to Bolton, driven by their stronger away scoring rate and Charlton's defensive record—Charlton have conceded at least twice in four of their last five. The biggest risk to this outcome is the volatility of both teams' defences, which could turn a likely away win into a high-scoring draw if neither side can control the game after taking the lead.
Charlton vs Bolton: Common Questions
Who will win Charlton vs Bolton?
Bolton are given a 42% win probability by the model, compared to 26% for Charlton and 32% for the draw. Bolton's stronger away attack and Charlton's recent defensive struggles tip the edge to the visitors.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bolton?
Yes is favoured at 61% probability, with both teams seeing BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches and neither keeping a clean sheet over that span.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59%, well above the typical market average, reflecting both teams' high recent concession rates and Bolton's 66.7% season over 2.5 rate.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Charlton vs Bolton: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 27 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Charlton vs Bolton Stats
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results