Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town Predictions
National League - South · England
Chelmsford City
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Farnham Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Farnham Town Win
Recommended Bets: Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town
Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town: Match Preview
Chelmsford City arrive with a remarkable unbeaten record in the league but have drawn eight of their nine matches, reflecting a side that is difficult to beat but struggles to turn control into victories. Their home record is particularly blunt, with just two goals scored in four matches, and they sit 16th in the table despite losing none. Farnham Town, by contrast, are seventh with five wins and three losses from ten, and have proven effective on the road, taking three wins from five away games.
Statistically, this fixture contrasts Chelmsford's defensive solidity (0.89 goals conceded per game) with Farnham's attacking output (1.6 goals scored per game, 1.4 conceded). Farnham's matches are high-event: 60% have gone over 2.5 goals, and all of their last five have seen both teams score. Chelmsford's recent matches have been lower-scoring, but their last five average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, suggesting some attacking improvement. Set-piece and card data are unavailable, but neither side has shown a disciplinary or set-piece trend in the limited events data.
The model expects Farnham's attacking intent and Chelmsford's inability to convert draws into wins to shape the contest. Farnham's higher away win rate and goal output tip the balance, while Chelmsford's defensive record keeps the scoreline competitive. A 2-1 away victory is the likeliest outcome, but Chelmsford's draw tendency and lack of H2H data introduce some uncertainty.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town that most previews miss.
- 1Chelmsford have drawn 89% of their league matches (8 of 9), a league-high rate.
- 2Farnham Town's away games average 2.4 total goals per match, with three wins in five.
- 3Both teams have scored in 100% of Farnham's last five matches, compared to just 40% for Chelmsford.
Who do you think wins: Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Farnham Town Win
Farnham Town's away scoring rate (1.4 per away game) and 60% over 2.5 match rate contrast with Chelmsford's low home output (0.5 goals per home game), supporting the model's 44% away win probability.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Farnham's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 60% of games, and both teams have shown recent attacking intent, with the away side averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in their last five.
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BTTS: Yes
Farnham Town have seen both teams score in all of their last five, while Chelmsford have only failed to score once in the same period; model probability for BTTS is 61%.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town Prediction
Chelmsford City's unbeaten but draw-heavy start (eight draws from nine) faces a Farnham Town side with a far more decisive record, particularly away from home. The underlying rates point to a clash of a low-output home attack against a high-variance Farnham side that has both scored and conceded freely. The model expects Farnham's superior away scoring rate and Chelmsford's inability to turn draws into wins to be decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Chelmsford have drawn eight of nine league matches, scoring just 0.5 goals per home game.
Defence
- →Farnham Town have won three of five away, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away match.
Match Context
- →Farnham's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 60% of league games, with BTTS in all of their last five.
How Chelmsford City and Farnham Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chelmsford Citylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Farnham Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chelmsford City remain unbeaten in the league but have drawn eight of nine, with a home attack that has produced just two goals in four matches. Farnham Town are in sharper form, winning three of their last five league games and scoring at least twice in four of those, while also conceding regularly.
Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Things to Watch: Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town
- ⚠️No head-to-head data available for these teams; no direct matchup reference.
- ⚠️No current odds available, so value edges cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Lack of detailed shot, possession, and set-piece data limits model granularity.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chelmsford City 1–2 Farnham TownThe model calls a 2-1 win for Farnham Town, driven by their away scoring rate (1.4 per game) and Chelmsford's inability to win at home (three home draws, two goals scored). The main risk is Chelmsford's draw habit and defensive discipline, which could suppress Farnham's attack and keep the match level.
Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town: Common Questions
Who will win Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town?
The model gives Farnham Town a 44% probability of winning, compared to 25% for Chelmsford City and 31% for the draw. Farnham's superior away form and attacking output are the key factors.
Will both teams score in Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town?
There is a 61% model probability for both teams to score, with Farnham Town having seen BTTS in all of their last five matches and Chelmsford only failing to score once in that span.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 58%, reflecting Farnham's 60% over 2.5 rate this season and their recent high-scoring matches, though Chelmsford's home games have generally been lower-scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chelmsford City vs Farnham Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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