Maidenhead vs Horsham Predictions
National League - South · England
Maidenhead
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Horsham
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Maidenhead vs Horsham
Maidenhead vs Horsham: Match Preview
Both Maidenhead and Horsham arrive in the lower reaches of the National League South table, separated by just one point (Maidenhead 18th, Horsham 15th). The home side are winless at York Road this season (0W 4D 2L), while Horsham's away record is quietly impressive: unbeaten in five (2W 3D 0L), conceding only four goals on their travels. Recent form offers little to separate them—Maidenhead have lost back-to-back games, while Horsham edged Slough Town last time out but have only one win in their last five league outings.
The statistical matchup is defined by low attacking output and solid, if unspectacular, defending. Maidenhead average 0.67 goals per home game (4 in 6), while Horsham's away attack is only marginally better at 1.2 per game (6 in 5). Both sides concede at just over a goal per match, and neither has a clear edge in clean sheet rates (Maidenhead 33%, Horsham 27%). The over 2.5 goal percentages are below league average for both: 41.7% for Maidenhead, 45.5% for Horsham. First-half goals are rare, with just three combined in their last ten home/away matches.
With both teams' season-long rates pointing to a low-scoring, closely contested affair, the model projects a high draw probability and a strong lean to under 2.5 goals. The likeliest scenario is a match decided by fine margins, with neither side likely to dominate or run up the score. A 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline given the distribution of results and lack of a clear attacking edge.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Maidenhead vs Horsham Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Maidenhead vs Horsham that most previews miss.
- 1Maidenhead have failed to win any of their six home matches, drawing four and scoring just four goals in that span.
- 2Horsham are unbeaten away from home (2W 3D 0L), conceding only four goals in five away fixtures.
- 3Both teams' matches have gone under 2.5 goals in more than half their combined home/away games this season (12 of 22, 54.5%).
Who do you think wins: Maidenhead vs Horsham?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Maidenhead vs Horsham(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both sides are averaging just over a goal per game (Maidenhead 1.08, Horsham 1.09), with each conceding at a similar rate and neither showing a clear home or away edge. Maidenhead have drawn four of six at home, while Horsham are unbeaten away but have drawn three of five. The statistical base rates point to a high draw probability.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Season over 2.5 goal rates are modest (Maidenhead 41.7%, Horsham 45.5%), and both teams have been involved in several low-scoring home/away matches. Maidenhead home games average just 2.17 goals (4 for, 9 against in 6), and Horsham away games 2.0 (6 for, 4 against in 5).
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Maidenhead vs Horsham Prediction
Statistically, this is a low-margin contest between two sides with nearly identical scoring and concession rates, both sitting in the bottom half and separated by a single point. Maidenhead have failed to win at home (0W 4D 2L) but are tough to break down, while Horsham are unbeaten away (2W 3D 0L) but rarely dominant. The underlying rates suggest a cagey, low-scoring affair with limited separation.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Maidenhead have drawn four of six at home, scoring just four goals in those matches.
Defence
- →Horsham are unbeaten away from home, with two wins and three draws, conceding only four goals in five away matches.
- →Both teams average just above one goal scored and conceded per game across the season.
How Maidenhead and Horsham Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Maidenhead vs Horsham Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Maidenheadlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Horshamlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Maidenhead have struggled for momentum, losing their last two and failing to win in six home matches this season. Horsham, meanwhile, have found some away resilience, winning at Slough Town last time out and remaining unbeaten on the road, though they've only managed one win in their last five league fixtures.
Maidenhead vs Horsham — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Maidenhead vs Horsham
The two previous meetings between these sides have both gone Maidenhead's way by a 2-1 margin, but the sample is too small to draw strong conclusions. Both matches were tightly contested, with no clear pattern beyond narrow scorelines.
Maidenhead vs Horsham Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
Maidenhead wins
0
Draws
0
Horsham wins
Things to Watch: Maidenhead vs Horsham
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Lack of shots, possession, and set piece data limits deeper tactical analysis.
- ⚠️Very small H2H sample (2 matches) offers little predictive value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Maidenhead 1–1 HorshamThe model calls this a 1-1 draw, anchored by both teams' season-long scoring and concession rates (each just above one per game) and the striking symmetry in their home/away records. The strongest data point is Maidenhead's inability to win at home combined with Horsham's unbeaten away run. The main risk is a sudden attacking outburst, but neither side's recent output suggests a high-scoring deviation.
Maidenhead vs Horsham: Common Questions
Who will win Maidenhead vs Horsham?
The model gives Maidenhead a 33% chance to win, Horsham a 29% chance, and the draw is most likely at 38%. Both teams have nearly identical season records and scoring rates, with Maidenhead winless at home and Horsham unbeaten away.
Will Maidenhead vs Horsham be over or under 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 58% probability. Both teams' matches have been low-scoring: Maidenhead home games average 2.17 goals, Horsham away games 2.0, and their over 2.5 rates are 41.7% and 45.5% respectively.
Is both teams to score likely in Maidenhead vs Horsham?
Both teams to score is close to a coin flip, with 'yes' at 48% and 'no' at 52%. Both have scored and conceded in three of their last five matches, but low overall attacking output keeps BTTS below 50%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Maidenhead vs Horsham: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 20 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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