Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare Predictions
National League - South · England
Farnborough
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Weston-super-Mare
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Weston-super-Mare Win
Recommended Bets: Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare
Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare: Match Preview
Farnborough come into this fixture sitting 17th, having picked up just two home wins from five and scoring only three times at their own ground. Their last five in all competitions show a mixed bag (WLDLD), with a recent 2-0 home win over Dagenham & Redbridge but also a heavy 0-4 defeat away at Billericay Town. Weston-super-Mare, eighth in the table, have also been inconsistent (LDLDW), but their overall season record is more robust, with 20 goals scored in 12 games and only one away win so far.
The statistical matchup tilts towards goals: Farnborough concede 1.55 per game on average, while Weston-super-Mare's away defence is even leakier at 2.2 per game over the last five. Weston-super-Mare's attack, averaging 1.67 per game, faces a Farnborough defence with just 27% clean sheets. Head-to-head history supports this, with six of the last seven meetings seeing at least three goals and BTTS landing in five of those. Both sides' recent form strings suggest defensive frailty, and Weston-super-Mare have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five.
The model expects Weston-super-Mare's greater attacking output to be decisive, projecting a 2-1 away win. The likeliest scenario is a tight first half, with the away side pulling ahead after the break. However, both sides' inconsistency and defensive issues mean the match could easily swing with an early goal or a defensive lapse.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare that most previews miss.
- 1Weston-super-Mare's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 7 of 12 games (58%), with an average of 3.08 total goals per game.
- 2Farnborough have scored just 3 goals in 5 home matches, the lowest home output in the top 17 teams.
- 3Six of the last seven H2H meetings have produced at least three goals, with BTTS in five of those.
Who do you think wins: Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Weston-super-Mare Win
Weston-super-Mare average 1.67 goals per game this season (20 in 12) and have a 45% win probability in the model, facing a Farnborough side with just 0.91 goals per game and a 27% clean sheet rate.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams concede at least 1.4 goals per game on average, and Weston-super-Mare's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 58% of cases this season.
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BTTS: Yes
Weston-super-Mare have scored in every one of their last five, while Farnborough have failed to score in two of their last five but face an away defence conceding 2.2 per game over the last five.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction
Statistical rates point to a moderately high-scoring contest, with Weston-super-Mare's superior attacking output likely to tilt the balance against a defensively vulnerable Farnborough side.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Farnborough's home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, just 3 goals scored in 5 home games.
Defence
- →Weston-super-Mare's away defence: 11 goals conceded in 5 away games (2.2 per game).
Match Context
- →Weston-super-Mare have a 58% over 2.5 goals rate this season, compared to Farnborough's 36%.
How Farnborough and Weston-super-Mare Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Farnboroughlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Weston-super-Marelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Farnborough's recent form is patchy, with just one win in their last five and a concerning lack of home goals (three in five matches). Weston-super-Mare, while inconsistent, have found the net in every one of their last five and have a stronger overall goal difference (+3 vs Farnborough's -7). Both teams have shown defensive frailties, but the away side's attack has been more reliable.
Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare
The last seven meetings between these sides have produced six matches with at least three goals, and Weston-super-Mare have won four of those, including the last two. BTTS has landed in five of the last seven, suggesting a trend towards open, attacking contests.
Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Farnborough wins
3
Draws
4
Weston-super-Mare wins
Things to Watch: Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value calculations and expected value are omitted.
- ⚠️Lack of shots, possession, and set-piece data reduces confidence in tactical nuance.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent results, raising variance risk.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Farnborough 1–2 Weston-super-MareWeston-super-Mare are favoured to edge this contest, with a 45% win probability and a predicted 2-1 scoreline. The single strongest data point is their season-long attacking rate of 1.67 goals per game against a Farnborough defence conceding 1.55 per match. The main risk is both teams' volatility and the chance that Farnborough's home struggles are offset by a rare clinical performance or a defensive improvement.
Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare: Common Questions
Who will win Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare?
Model probabilities give Weston-super-Mare a 45% chance of victory, compared to 24% for Farnborough and 31% for the draw. The away side's stronger attack and recent H2H record are the main factors.
Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare?
There is a 56% probability of both teams scoring, supported by both sides conceding at least 1.4 goals per game and BTTS landing in four of Weston-super-Mare's last five matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare?
The model gives a 54% probability for over 2.5 goals, with Weston-super-Mare's matches going over this line in 58% of games and the H2H history showing a strong trend towards high scores.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 21 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare Resources
Farnborough Predictions
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Weston-super-Mare Predictions
All Weston-super-Mare fixtures & tips
Farnborough vs Weston-super-Mare Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Folkestone Invicta vs Farnborough
Farnborough — next match predictions
Weston-super-Mare vs Billericay Town
Weston-super-Mare — next match predictions
National League - South Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results