Horsham vs Walton & Hersham Predictions
National League - South · England
Horsham
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Walton & Hersham
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Horsham Win
Recommended Bets: Horsham vs Walton & Hersham
Horsham vs Walton & Hersham: Match Preview
Horsham enter this fixture sitting 17th, having taken just one point from their last three league games and losing twice at home in that span. Their season record (2W, 5D, 3L) is underpinned by a negative goal difference, but they have shown some resilience with five draws and only one home defeat to a side outside the top half. Walton & Hersham, 23rd in the table, have endured a torrid campaign defensively, conceding 27 goals in 11 matches, but arrive off the back of two consecutive away wins, their best run of the season.
The matchup is defined by Walton & Hersham's porous defence (2.45 conceded per game, 2.33 away) against a Horsham attack that averages a modest 1.0 per game but has managed six goals in six home fixtures. Horsham's home games average exactly 2.5 total goals, while Walton & Hersham's away games are more open at 3.5. Both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five, and neither side is reliable for clean sheets, with Walton & Hersham keeping just one all season. First-half goals have been scarce for Horsham, while Walton & Hersham tend to concede more after the break.
Statistically, the most likely scenario is a competitive match with both teams finding the net, but Horsham's superior defensive record at home and the historical H2H edge suggest they are better placed to capitalise. The model projects a 2-1 home win, with the goal environment slightly above league average due to Walton & Hersham's defensive frailty.
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Expected goals · model says 1.55
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Horsham vs Walton & Hersham Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Horsham vs Walton & Hersham that most previews miss.
- 1Walton & Hersham have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 6 away league matches this season.
- 2Horsham have scored exactly once in four of their last five home matches.
- 3Across both H2H meetings, Horsham have kept clean sheets and scored at least twice each time.
Who do you think wins: Horsham vs Walton & Hersham?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Horsham vs Walton & Hersham(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Horsham Win
Horsham's home defensive record (1.5 goals conceded per home match) is less alarming than Walton & Hersham's away defensive rate (2.33 conceded per away), and the hosts have won both previous H2H meetings without conceding.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Combined, these sides see over 2.5 goals in 48% of matches (Horsham 40%, Walton & Hersham 55%), and the away side's defence is conceding 2.45 per game over the season.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 3 of their last 5, and Walton & Hersham have only one clean sheet all season (9%).
More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Horsham vs Walton & Hersham Prediction
Horsham's underlying rates at home are more robust than their league position suggests, while Walton & Hersham's defensive record away from home is among the league's worst. The statistical shape points to a moderate scoring environment with the home side having the edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both sides have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches.
Defence
- →Walton & Hersham concede 2.45 goals per game over the season, including 2.33 per away match.
Match Context
- →Horsham have lost just once in four home league matches against bottom-half teams.
How Horsham and Walton & Hersham Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Horsham vs Walton & Hersham Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Horshamlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Walton & Hershamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Horsham's form has dipped with two straight losses, but they've been competitive in most matches, drawing five of ten. Walton & Hersham, despite a poor overall record, have improved lately with back-to-back away wins, suggesting some momentum shift but still hampered by a leaky defence.
Horsham vs Walton & Hersham — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Horsham vs Walton & Hersham
Horsham have dominated the brief head-to-head history, winning both encounters away from home with clean sheets (3-0 and 2-0). The pattern points to an ability to contain Walton & Hersham's attack and find goals of their own.
Horsham vs Walton & Hersham Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
Horsham wins
0
Draws
0
Walton & Hersham wins
Things to Watch: Horsham vs Walton & Hersham
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available — value analysis not possible.
- ⚠️Shot, possession, and set piece data missing for both sides, reducing confidence in secondary markets.
- ⚠️Recent form for Walton & Hersham shows improvement (two straight away wins), which may not be fully captured by season-long rates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Horsham 2–1 Walton & HershamThe model favours Horsham to edge this match 2-1, primarily due to Walton & Hersham's league-worst defensive record away from home (2.33 goals conceded per game). The main risk is Walton & Hersham's recent upturn in away form, which could mean their baseline defensive numbers understate their current level.
Horsham vs Walton & Hersham: Common Questions
Who will win Horsham vs Walton & Hersham?
Horsham are given a 41% chance to win, with a 32% probability of a draw and 27% for Walton & Hersham. The edge comes from Horsham's more stable defensive record and the visitors' poor season-long concession rate.
Will both teams score in Horsham vs Walton & Hersham?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides seeing BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches and Walton & Hersham keeping just one clean sheet all season.
How many goals are expected in Horsham vs Walton & Hersham?
The model gives a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals, reflecting Walton & Hersham's 2.45 goals conceded per match and a combined over 2.5 rate of 48% across both teams.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Horsham vs Walton & Hersham: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Horsham vs Walton & Hersham Resources
Horsham Predictions
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Walton & Hersham Predictions
All Walton & Hersham fixtures & tips
Horsham vs Walton & Hersham Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
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National League - South Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results