Cheltenham vs Newport County Predictions
League Two · England
Cheltenham
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Newport County
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Recommended Bets: Cheltenham vs Newport County
Cheltenham vs Newport County: Match Preview
Cheltenham enter this fixture on the back of consecutive defeats, slipping to 8th in the table after a promising start. Their home record remains positive (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), but they've failed to score in their last two outings and have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 10 league games. Newport, meanwhile, sit 12th but are unbeaten in five across all competitions, with a notable defensive improvement—just one goal conceded in their last five league matches, including four clean sheets.
The matchup pits Cheltenham's relatively productive home attack (1.8 goals per home game) against a Newport side that have struggled for away wins but have tightened up defensively. Newport's away record is poor (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 4 goals scored, 8 conceded), but their last two away league games ended goalless. Both sides average between 1.2 and 1.6 goals for and against per game, and Newport's recent matches have skewed heavily under 2.5 goals (4/5). Cards could be a factor, with Cheltenham averaging over 3.5 yellows per game in their last five.
Given the convergence of mid-table scoring rates, Newport's improved defensive discipline, and Cheltenham's recent attacking struggles, the model expects a tight contest. The most probable result is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline favoured by the underlying rates. The distribution of likely outcomes is broad, but the median expectation is for a low-scoring affair decided by set pieces or defensive lapses.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cheltenham vs Newport County Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cheltenham vs Newport County that most previews miss.
- 1Cheltenham have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 10 league games this season.
- 2Newport's last five league matches have produced just five total goals (1.0 per game), with four clean sheets for County.
- 3The last three H2H meetings at Whaddon Road have all been won by Cheltenham, but none by more than a single goal.
Who do you think wins: Cheltenham vs Newport County?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cheltenham vs Newport County(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average between 1.2 and 1.6 goals scored and conceded per game, with Newport's away attack and Cheltenham's home defence both middling, and the draw rate is high for both sides (Cheltenham 3/10, Newport 4/10).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Newport have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 league matches and 4/5 have finished under 2.5, while Cheltenham's attack has failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and their last two home games have both gone under.
Read more ↓
Cards: Over 3.5
Cheltenham average 3.6 yellows and 0.4 reds per game over their last 5, with two recent red cards, suggesting a high baseline for bookings.
More League Two Predictions
The Case For This Cheltenham vs Newport County Prediction
Statistically, this is a mid-table League Two fixture with both sides showing average scoring and conceding rates, but with contrasting recent defensive trends. Cheltenham's home attack has produced 9 goals in 5, but they've also shipped 8, while Newport's away record is poor for results but recently solid defensively. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw, with both teams' season-long rates converging around 1.3–1.6 goals for and against, and recent underperformance in attack for both sides.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Cheltenham have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches and have not kept a clean sheet all season.
- →Newport have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches, conceding just once in that span.
Match Context
- →Both teams have drawn at least 3 of their first 10 league games, and Newport have yet to win away.
🚩 Cheltenham vs Newport County Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Cheltenham and 4 for Newport County, for an expected total of 8.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 44% · Over 10.5: 20%.
How Cheltenham and Newport County Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cheltenham vs Newport County Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cheltenhamlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Newport Countylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cheltenham arrive on a two-game losing streak, having failed to score in either match and conceding four. Their overall form is mixed, with a recent home win over Chesterfield but no clean sheets all season. Newport, by contrast, are unbeaten in five league fixtures, conceding just once in that period and keeping four clean sheets, though their away attack remains blunt.
Cheltenham vs Newport County — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Cheltenham vs Newport County
Cheltenham have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last ten meetings and all three most recent home fixtures against Newport. However, the margins have been narrow, and three of the last five encounters have finished under 2.5 goals, suggesting a tight historical matchup.
Cheltenham vs Newport County Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Cheltenham wins
2
Draws
2
Newport County wins
Things to Watch: Cheltenham vs Newport County
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided; value assessment and expected value calculations are unavailable.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is volatile, with Cheltenham on a two-game losing streak and Newport's away attack underperforming.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are unknown at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cheltenham 1–1 Newport CountyThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' season-long scoring and conceding rates (Cheltenham 1.6 for/1.6 against, Newport 1.3 for/1.2 against) and Newport's recent defensive uptick. The biggest risk is Cheltenham's home attack rediscovering its early-season efficiency or Newport's away defence regressing, but the median outcome remains a low-scoring stalemate.
Cheltenham vs Newport County: Common Questions
Who will win Cheltenham vs Newport County?
The model gives Cheltenham a 36% chance of victory, Newport a 28% chance, and a draw is equally likely at 36%. Both teams' season records and recent form point to a balanced contest.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
There's a 51% probability that both teams will score, reflecting Cheltenham's lack of clean sheets and Newport's recent defensive form. However, Newport have kept four clean sheets in their last five, keeping the market finely balanced.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
The model estimates a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals, with Newport's last five league games averaging just 1.0 goal per match and Cheltenham failing to score in two of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cheltenham vs Newport County: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Cheltenham vs Newport County Resources
Cheltenham Predictions
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Cheltenham vs Newport County Stats
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League Two Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results