Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond Predictions
National League - South · England
Chesham United
AI Predicted Score
2 - 2
Hampton & Richmond
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
Recommended Bets: Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond
Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond: Match Preview
Chesham United and Hampton & Richmond meet in a clash between the league's bottom two, both desperate for points to escape the relegation zone. Chesham have lost four of their last five and sit 21st, just one point above their visitors, who are winless in five and rooted to the foot of the table. Neither side has built any momentum, with Chesham's only home win coming three months ago and Hampton & Richmond still searching for their first away victory of the campaign.
Statistically, this is a matchup defined by defensive frailty. Chesham's home matches average 4 goals per game, with 19 conceded in 7 at The Meadow. Hampton & Richmond have the league's worst away defence, conceding 22 in 9, and both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five. The over 2.5 goals rate is 73% for Chesham and 50% for Hampton & Richmond, while BTTS has landed in 4 of the visitors' last 5. With neither side showing discipline or control, the contest is likely to be open and error-prone.
The model projects a high-scoring draw as the most probable outcome, with both teams likely to find the net given their concession rates and lack of defensive structure. A 2-2 scoreline best reflects the underlying numbers, though the absence of detailed recent match stats adds some uncertainty. The lack of clean sheets and the high frequency of over 2.5 goal matches are the strongest statistical signals.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
64%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond that most previews miss.
- 1Chesham United's home games average 4.0 total goals per match (9 scored, 19 conceded in 7).
- 2Hampton & Richmond have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 9 away matches this season.
- 3BTTS has landed in 4 of Hampton & Richmond's last 5 league fixtures.
Who do you think wins: Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes
Both Chesham United and Hampton & Richmond have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league matches, with BTTS landing in 2 of Chesham's and 4 of Hampton & Richmond's last 5. Both sides average over 2 goals conceded per game across the season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Chesham United's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 73% of league games, and Hampton & Richmond concede 2.31 goals per game on average, with 50% of their matches over 2.5. Defensive frailty on both sides points to a high-scoring encounter.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond Prediction
This fixture pits two of the league's most porous defences against each other, with Chesham United (33 goals conceded in 15) and Hampton & Richmond (37 in 16) both languishing in the relegation zone. Both sides arrive winless in their last five, but Hampton & Richmond have at least found the net in four of those, while Chesham have failed to score in three. The home side's only win at The Meadow this season came back in August, while Hampton & Richmond are still searching for their first away victory (0 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses). Statistically, the matchup is shaped by high concession rates and erratic defending. Chesham's home record is particularly leaky (19 conceded in 7), and Hampton & Richmond's away defence is even worse (22 shipped in 9). Both teams average over 2 goals conceded per game, and neither has managed a clean sheet in their last five. The BTTS rate is high, especially for the visitors (4 of last 5), and Chesham's matches go over 2.5 goals at a league-high 73% rate. Set-piece and discipline data are limited, but neither side is notably aggressive or disciplined in recent matches. The model expects a wide-open contest, with both teams' defensive weaknesses outweighing their attacking limitations. A 2-2 scoreline is the modal outcome, reflecting the high probability of both teams scoring and a strong likelihood of three or more goals. The lack of clean sheets and the high over 2.5 goal rates are the decisive factors, though the absence of reliable shot or possession data adds a layer of uncertainty.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Chesham United have conceded 19 goals in 7 home matches (2.71 per game).
- →Hampton & Richmond have failed to win any of their 9 away games, conceding 22 (2.44 per game).
- →Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league matches.
How Chesham United and Hampton & Richmond Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Chesham Unitedlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hampton & Richmondlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chesham United enter on a run of four defeats in their last five, with just two goals scored in that stretch and three matches without finding the net. Hampton & Richmond are also winless in five but have at least scored in four, including a 3-4 home defeat and a 2-3 away loss, highlighting their defensive vulnerability but some attacking threat.
Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 73.33% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond
In the last five meetings, Chesham United have won three times and Hampton & Richmond twice, with no draws. Three of those matches saw both teams score, and away wins have occurred twice, indicating no strong home advantage in this fixture.
Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
3
Chesham United wins
0
Draws
2
Hampton & Richmond wins
Things to Watch: Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond
- ⚠️Recent match data lacks detailed shot, possession, and set-piece statistics.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations are limited.
- ⚠️Both teams' form is poor and unpredictable, increasing variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chesham United 2–2 Hampton & RichmondThe model projects a 2-2 draw, driven by both teams' high concession rates (Chesham 2.2, Hampton & Richmond 2.31 per game) and a combined clean sheet rate below 10% over the last five matches. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if either attack fails to take advantage of the defensive weaknesses, resulting in a lower-scoring draw or a narrow win.
Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond: Common Questions
Who will win Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond?
The model gives Chesham United a 36% chance of victory, Hampton & Richmond a 32% chance, and the draw 32%. Both sides are struggling, so a high-scoring draw is the likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond?
Yes is favoured at 69% probability, as neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five league matches and both average over 2 goals conceded per game.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond?
Over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability, supported by Chesham's 73% over 2.5 rate and Hampton & Richmond's defensive record of 22 goals conceded in 9 away games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chesham United vs Hampton & Richmond: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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