Dover vs Horsham Predictions
National League - South · England
Dover
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Horsham
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
Recommended Bets: Dover vs Horsham
Dover vs Horsham: Match Preview
Dover and Horsham come into this fixture dead level on 22 points, occupying 13th and 12th in the National League South table respectively. Dover have pieced together a solid run at home with two wins from their last three at Crabble, while Horsham remain unbeaten on their travels this season (3 wins, 5 draws), boasting the division's joint-fewest away defeats. Both sides' recent form is steady rather than spectacular, with Dover on a W2 streak and Horsham suffering just one loss in their last five.
On the numbers, this is a meeting of statistical near-twins: Dover average 1.43 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game, while Horsham post 1.44 for and 1.19 against. Horsham's away defence has been particularly robust, shipping just 7 goals in 8 away matches (0.88 per game), while Dover's home attack is similarly reliable at 1.5 goals per home match. Both teams have kept two clean sheets in their last five, but have also shown a tendency to concede, with BTTS landing in three of Horsham's last five and two of Dover's. Set-piece threat is muted, with Dover averaging under a corner per game in recent home matches.
The model expects a cagey contest with limited separation, moderate goal expectation (under 2.5 goals slightly favoured at 0.54), and a high probability of both teams scoring. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, reflecting both the season-long rates and the recent head-to-head pattern. Unless either side finds an edge from open play, a draw is the statistical baseline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dover vs Horsham Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dover vs Horsham that most previews miss.
- 1Horsham are unbeaten away (3 wins, 5 draws) and concede just 0.88 goals per away match.
- 2Dover's home matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 64% of cases this season.
- 3The last two Dover vs Horsham meetings ended 1-1, with both teams scoring in three of the last four encounters.
Who do you think wins: Dover vs Horsham?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Dover vs Horsham(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both sides have identical points, similar season scoring/conceding rates (Dover 1.43/1.36, Horsham 1.44/1.19), and the last two head-to-heads ended 1-1, making the draw the highest single probability outcome in the model.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Dover's home matches have seen under 2.5 goals 64% of the time and Horsham's away defence concedes less than a goal per game; model probability for under 2.5 is 0.54.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in three of Horsham's last five and two of Dover's last five, with both averaging over a goal per game; model BTTS probability is 0.56.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Dover vs Horsham Prediction
Statistically, this fixture is a meeting of equals: Dover and Horsham are level on points, have nearly identical season scoring rates, and both sit mid-table with little to separate their home and away records. The underlying rates suggest a contest with moderate goal expectation, a strong likelihood of both teams scoring, and a high draw probability. Recent head-to-heads reinforce this, with the last two meetings finishing 1-1.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Dover average 1.43 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game; Horsham 1.44 scored, 1.19 conceded.
- →Horsham are unbeaten away (3W, 5D, 0L), conceding just 0.88 goals per away match.
Match Context
- →Last two head-to-heads ended 1-1, and both teams have scored in three of Horsham's last five.
🚩 Dover vs Horsham Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.6 corners for Dover and 5 for Horsham, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 49% · Over 10.5: 25%.
How Dover and Horsham Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dover vs Horsham Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Doverlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Horshamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dover arrive on a two-match winning streak, including a 2-0 FA Cup win and a narrow 1-0 league victory, but have been inconsistent at home (3W, 2D, 3L). Horsham are unbeaten away from home (3W, 5D), with a recent 5-0 away win highlighting their threat, though they lost their last match at home. Both sides have found the net regularly, but neither has strung together dominant form.
Dover vs Horsham — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Dover vs Horsham
The head-to-head record is finely balanced, with one win each and two draws in the last four meetings. Notably, the last two encounters both ended 1-1, suggesting a pattern of closely contested matches with both teams scoring. Neither side has managed to assert clear superiority in this fixture.
Dover vs Horsham Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
1
Dover wins
2
Draws
1
Horsham wins
Things to Watch: Dover vs Horsham
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Limited shots and set-piece data for Horsham in recent matches restricts set-piece and xG-based insight.
- ⚠️Small sample size for head-to-heads and some missing match stats may understate tactical nuances.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dover 1–1 HorshamThe model projects a 1-1 draw, anchored by the near-identical scoring rates and the unbeaten away record of Horsham. The strongest data point is Horsham's away defensive record (0.88 goals conceded per game), which limits Dover's home edge. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if either side capitalises on defensive lapses or set-piece opportunities, swinging the match towards a 2-1 either way.
Dover vs Horsham: Common Questions
Who will win Dover vs Horsham?
The model gives Dover a 32% chance, Horsham a 31% chance, and a draw a 37% chance. Both teams have identical points and similar scoring/conceding rates, so a draw is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Dover vs Horsham?
Both teams to score is rated at 56% probability, with both sides averaging over a goal per game and BTTS landing in three of Horsham's last five matches.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Dover vs Horsham?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54%, with Dover's home matches going under in 64% of cases and Horsham conceding less than a goal per away match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dover vs Horsham: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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