Chile vs Colombia Prediction
Chile Host Colombia: Model Favors Visitors in Santiago Friendly
International Friendly · World
Chile
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Colombia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chile vs Colombia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Chile vs Colombia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Chile vs Colombia Prediction
Chile welcome Colombia to Santiago for a high-profile friendly, but the analytics model sees a clear gap between the sides. Colombia's superior Elo rating (1975, world rank 7) dwarfs Chile's 1710 (rank 44), translating to a significant Elo edge of +265 points for the visitors. This baseline, combined with Colombia’s attacking data—boosted by the likes of L. J. Suárez and R. Martínez—yields a final expected goals line of 1.56 for Colombia versus just 0.97 for Chile. Recent momentum slightly tempers Colombia’s attacking expectations, with their attack multiplier at 0.865 (reflecting a quieter recent scoring run), but Chile’s own form offers little in the way of a boost. The model’s Poisson simulation points to a 51% win probability for Colombia and a predicted scoreline of 0-1, with the most likely alternatives being a 1-1 draw or a 0-2 away win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Colombia’s final expected goals: 1.56; Chile’s: 0.97, after momentum adjustments.
Attack
- →Colombia’s top attackers combine for 125.7 xG and 357 goals, while Chile’s attack data is sparse.
- →Recent form: Colombia’s attack momentum is slightly negative (0.865), Chile’s is neutral (1.027).
Match Context
- →Colombia have a +265 Elo rating advantage (1975 vs 1710), ranking 7th globally to Chile’s 44th.
- →The model gives Colombia a 51% win probability, with 0-1 the most likely scoreline.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
0.77 · 1.83
From xG
1.63 · 1.42
Blended
0.97 · 1.56
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Chile's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.08; Colombia's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Chile goals, columns = Colombia goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.4%
1-1
12.1%
0-2
9.7%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chile vs Colombia that most previews miss.
- 1Six of the last nine meetings between these sides have ended in draws, including four 0-0 results.
- 2Colombia’s top five attackers have contributed 357 goals from 125.7 xG, indicating clinical finishing.
- 3Chile have managed just one clean sheet in their last five matches, conceding 1.6 goals per game.
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with a substantial Elo baseline: Colombia’s 1975 rating is 265 points higher than Chile’s 1710, setting expectations for a strong away performance. This Elo gap is then blended with attacking and defensive factors. Colombia’s attack is well-documented, featuring top players like Suárez (23.3 xG, 28 goals) and Martínez (19.8 xG, 23 goals), and is further enhanced by a finishing multiplier of 1.2, though their chance quality is slightly below par at 0.88. Chile’s attacking data is limited, reflecting a lack of recent output and squad continuity. Defensively, Colombia suppresses opponents well (defensive factor 0.8), while Chile’s defensive data is less robust. The recent-form momentum adjustment slightly dampens Colombia’s scoring projection (attack multiplier 0.865), but Chile’s own recent form is only modestly positive (1.027). After all adjustments, the final expected goals are 1.56 for Colombia and 0.97 for Chile. These rates feed into a Poisson distribution, producing a 51% win probability for Colombia and a 24% chance for Chile, with the most likely scoreline being 0-1.
More Friendlies Predictions
Chile vs Colombia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chilelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Colombialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chile’s recent form is mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game. Colombia, meanwhile, have lost just once in five, keeping three clean sheets and conceding only 0.4 goals per game. Both sides have seen limited scoring, with Colombia’s attack momentum slightly negative and Chile’s marginally positive.
Chile vs Colombia — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Dominant in possession — 58% avg
🚩 Chile vs Colombia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Chile and 4.4 for Colombia, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 55% · Over 10.5: 30%.
What History Says: Chile vs Colombia
These teams are no strangers, having met nine times since 2015, but draws have dominated the series—six in total, including four goalless stalemates. Colombia have won two of the last three meetings, including a 3-1 victory in 2021. Chile’s sole win came in 2016, highlighting the visitors’ recent upper hand.
Chile vs Colombia Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
1
Chile wins
6
Draws
2
Colombia wins
Things to Watch: Chile vs Colombia
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available at present, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can feature experimental lineups and unpredictable motivation.
- ⚠️Chile’s home advantage and the sides’ history of draws introduce additional uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chile 0–1 ColombiaThe model gives Colombia a clear edge, projecting a 0-1 away win with a 12.4% probability for that exact scoreline. This is underpinned by Colombia’s +265 Elo advantage and a final expected goals tally of 1.56 to Chile’s 0.97. However, the fixture’s friendly status and Chile’s home advantage—plus a history of low-scoring draws—mean a stalemate or narrow home result cannot be dismissed.
Chile vs Colombia: Common Questions
Who will win Chile vs Colombia?
The model gives Colombia a 51% probability of winning, compared to 24% for Chile and 25% for a draw. The most likely outcome is a narrow away win.
What are the chances of both teams scoring in Chile vs Colombia?
The probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 49%, with a slightly higher likelihood (51%) that at least one side keeps a clean sheet.
How important is this friendly for World Cup 2026 preparations?
While not a competitive fixture, this friendly offers both teams a valuable opportunity to test lineups and tactics ahead of World Cup 2026. The model’s confidence is medium, reflecting the experimental nature of international friendlies.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chile vs Colombia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 3 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.