Ecuador vs Bolivia Prediction
Ecuador Hold All the Cards Against Bolivia in Quito Friendly
International Friendly · World
Ecuador
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Bolivia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ecuador vs Bolivia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Ecuador vs Bolivia?
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The Case For This Ecuador vs Bolivia Prediction
Ecuador enter this international friendly with a commanding edge over Bolivia, both on paper and in recent history. The model gives Ecuador a robust Elo advantage of +288 points (1933 vs 1645), translating to a 53.9% probability of a home win. Their attacking output, led by L. Campana (25.4 xG, 46 goals), is supported by a solid defensive suppression factor of 0.8, while Bolivia’s recent form and squad data are notably sparse. Despite a recent dip in attacking momentum for both sides (momentum attack multipliers of 0.85), Ecuador’s blended expected goals remain ahead at 1.651 versus Bolivia’s 0.947. The predicted scoreline is a pragmatic 1-0 in favour of the hosts, with the model’s top correct score probabilities clustering around narrow Ecuadorian victories. Bolivia’s recent form—five straight losses and an average of just 0.2 goals scored per game in their last five—reinforces the model’s cautious outlook for the visitors.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head: Ecuador have won 9 of the last 10 meetings, drawing the other.
Attack
- →Ecuador’s attack is led by L. Campana (25.4 xG, 46 goals), while Bolivia lack recent data.
- →Both teams’ attack momentum is subdued at 0.85, trimming expected goals.
Defence
- →Ecuador’s defensive suppression factor is a strong 0.8.
Match Context
- →Ecuador’s Elo rating of 1933 dwarfs Bolivia’s 1645 (+288 difference).
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.88 · 0.72
From xG
1.30 · 1.63
Blended
1.65 · 0.95
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Ecuador's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Bolivia's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Bolivia's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Ecuador goals, columns = Bolivia goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.3%
1-1
11.6%
2-0
10.1%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ecuador vs Bolivia that most previews miss.
- 1Ecuador have averaged just 0.6 goals scored per game in their last five matches, but still project to outscore Bolivia’s 0.2 per game over the same span.
- 2The model’s blended expected goal line is 1.651 for Ecuador and 0.947 for Bolivia after momentum adjustments.
- 3Despite a 73.2% chance for over 1.5 goals, the most likely correct score is 1-0 Ecuador (12.3%).
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with a substantial Elo baseline, awarding Ecuador a 0.84 expected score and Bolivia just 0.16, reflecting a gulf in quality and consistency. This starting point is then adjusted by each side’s attacking and defensive profiles: Ecuador’s attack, powered by proven finishers and a top-11 xG total of 89.6, faces a Bolivian defence with limited recent data and no standout suppression. Conversely, Bolivia’s attacking threat is muted, with no recent player data and a base attack factor of 1. Recent-form momentum is applied next, with both teams’ attack multipliers at 0.85, pulling down their expected goals from the blend of Elo and xG. This results in final expected goal values of 1.651 for Ecuador and 0.947 for Bolivia. These scoring rates are then run through a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities, producing a highest likelihood for a 1-0 Ecuador win (12.3%), closely followed by 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (10.1%). The overall win probability for Ecuador stands at 53.9%.
More Friendlies Predictions
Ecuador vs Bolivia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Ecuadorlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bolivialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Ecuador’s recent form has been mixed, with just one win in their last five matches (DLLWD) and an average of 0.6 goals scored per game. Their attack has struggled to convert chances, failing to score in three of those five outings. Bolivia’s form is even more concerning: five straight losses, just 0.2 goals scored per game, and an average of 3.2 conceded per match. Both teams’ recent attacking momentum is below average (0.85), which has dampened their expected goal output for this fixture.
Ecuador vs Bolivia — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
🚩 Ecuador vs Bolivia Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.7 corners for Ecuador and 3.8 for Bolivia, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
What History Says: Ecuador vs Bolivia
Ecuador have dominated this fixture historically, winning nine of the last ten meetings and drawing the other. The most recent encounter saw Ecuador run out 4-0 winners in World Cup qualifying in November 2024. Bolivia have never beaten Ecuador in these ten matches, underscoring the hosts’ psychological and tactical edge.
Ecuador vs Bolivia Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
9
Ecuador wins
1
Draws
0
Bolivia wins
Things to Watch: Ecuador vs Bolivia
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotation and experimental line-ups.
- ⚠️Recent form and squad data for Bolivia are sparse, increasing model uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ecuador 1–0 BoliviaThe model’s final call is a narrow 1-0 win for Ecuador, built on their 53.9% win probability and a dominant historical record over Bolivia. The single strongest number behind this verdict is the +288 Elo rating gap, which sets the tone for the entire prediction. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Ecuador’s recent attacking struggles persist and Bolivia manage to capitalise on a rare chance, leading to a low-scoring draw or a surprise away goal.
Ecuador vs Bolivia: Common Questions
Who will win Ecuador vs Bolivia?
The model gives Ecuador a 53.9% probability of victory, with Bolivia at 21.6% and a draw at 24.5%. Ecuador are clear favourites based on Elo and recent form.
What is the predicted score for Ecuador vs Bolivia?
The most likely scoreline is 1-0 to Ecuador, with a 12.3% probability. The next most probable results are 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (10.1%).
Will both teams score in Ecuador vs Bolivia?
The model gives a 49.5% chance of both teams scoring and a 50.5% chance that at least one side keeps a clean sheet, reflecting the low attacking output from both teams recently.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ecuador vs Bolivia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 3 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.