Iraq vs Iran Prediction
Iran Hold the Upper Hand Over Iraq in World Cup 2026 Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Iraq
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Iran
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Iraq vs Iran Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Iraq vs Iran Prediction
Iran enter this World Cup 2026 friendly with a clear statistical edge over Iraq, as reflected by a 153-point Elo advantage (1760 vs 1607) and a 48% win probability from the model. Iraq, despite flashes of attacking promise from key players like A. Al-Hamadi, are forecast to struggle against an Iranian side whose forward line, led by M. Taremi, boasts far superior xG and finishing numbers. The model's blended expected goals line—1.38 for Iran to just 0.89 for Iraq—highlights the gulf in attacking threat. Recent form has not been kind to either side, with both teams suffering from a dip in attacking momentum (form attack multiplier of 0.865), but Iraq's defensive leakiness (leak factor 1.18) is particularly concerning. The most likely scoreline is a narrow 1-0 win for Iran (14% probability), with low overall scoring expected. While Iran's recent results have been mixed, their historical dominance in this fixture and superior underlying metrics make them clear favourites.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
xG factor — Iraq 0.76× · Iran 0.81×
- →Top Iranian forwards (Taremi, Jahanbakhsh) have significantly higher xG and goal tallies than Iraq's.
Defence
Suppression — Iraq 1.09× · Iran 1.10×
- →Both sides show negative attacking momentum (0.865 multiplier), but Iraq's defensive leakiness (1.18) is worse than Iran's (1.08).
Match Context
- →Iran's Elo rating is 153 points higher than Iraq's (1760 vs 1607), translating to a 48% win probability.
- →Blended expected goals: Iran 1.38, Iraq 0.89 after all adjustments.
- →The most probable scoreline is 0-1 to Iran (14.2%).
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
xG Attack Strength
Top-11 expected-goals output, adjusted for finishing efficiency and chance quality. 1.00× is the tournament median.
Iraq
0.76×Top-11 xG
40
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- A. Al-Hamadi F11.6 xG
- M. Farji M6.8 xG
- A. Hussein F4.7 xG
- A. Jasim M3.6 xG
- K. Yakob M3.0 xG
Iran
0.81×Top-11 xG
69
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- M. Taremi F34.5 xG
- A. Jahanbakhsh F8.7 xG
- A. Sayyad M7.2 xG
- D. Eckert Ayensa F5.3 xG
- A. Gholizadeh M5.1 xG
Defensive Suppression
Defender & midfield ball-winning (tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks). Higher = more suppression of the opponent's attack.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
0.99 · 1.61
From xG
0.90 · 0.96
Blended
0.89 · 1.38
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Iraq's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; Iraq's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18; Iran's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; Iran's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.08.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Iraq goals, columns = Iran goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.2%
1-1
12.7%
0-0
10.3%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Iraq vs Iran that most previews miss.
- 1Iran's top five attackers have combined for 69.1 xG and 261 goals, dwarfing Iraq's 40 xG and 87 goals from their top five.
- 2The model's BTTS 'No' probability is 56%, reflecting the low combined expected goals and both sides' recent struggles in attack.
- 3Across their last eight meetings, Iran have won four times to Iraq's two, including three of the last four competitive fixtures.
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with a baseline assessment using Elo ratings, where Iran's 1760 rating (31st globally) gives them a substantial edge over Iraq's 1607 (63rd). This Elo gap sets an initial expectation for Iran to outperform Iraq in terms of overall quality and likelihood of victory. Next, the model factors in each team's attacking and defensive strengths. Iran's attack, powered by players like M. Taremi (34.5 xG, 149 goals), is rated at 0.809, while Iraq's is lower at 0.76. Both sides have similar defensive suppression factors (Iraq 1.093, Iran 1.102), but Iraq's recent defensive leakiness stands out. Recent-form momentum is then applied: both teams' attacks are running below par (0.865 multiplier), but Iraq's defence is leaking more goals than average (1.18 leak factor), slightly inflating Iran's expected goal tally. Finally, these adjusted expected goals (Iraq 0.89, Iran 1.38) are run through a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities. This results in a 48% chance of an Iran win, 27.5% for a draw, and 24.4% for a home upset, with the most likely outcomes being 0-1, 1-1, or 0-0.
More Friendlies Predictions
Iraq vs Iran Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Iraqlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Iranlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Recent form is a concern for both teams. Iraq have taken just four points from their last five matches (LWDLL), averaging only 0.8 goals scored and conceding 2.6 per game. Iran are also winless in five (LLDDD), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6 on average. Both sides show negative attacking momentum (0.865 multiplier), but Iraq's defence has been especially porous, leaking 2.6 goals per game in this stretch.
Iraq vs Iran — Last 6 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
🚩 Iraq vs Iran Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Iraq and 4 for Iran, for an expected total of 8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 41% · Over 10.5: 18%.
What History Says: Iraq vs Iran
Iran and Iraq have met eight times in recent years, with Iran winning four, Iraq two, and two draws. Iran have dominated the recent competitive head-to-heads, winning three of the last four World Cup qualifiers. The last meeting saw Iran win 1-0 at home in January 2022, while Iraq's last win came in 2019.
Iraq vs Iran Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
2
Iraq wins
2
Draws
4
Iran wins
Things to Watch: Iraq vs Iran
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are currently available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can see experimental lineups and unpredictable motivation.
- ⚠️Recent form data is limited and may not fully reflect current squad strengths.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Iraq 0–1 IranThe model predicts a 1-0 victory for Iran, underpinned by their 1.38 expected goals and a 48% win probability. Iran's superior attacking firepower and historical head-to-head record give them the edge, but their own recent attacking slump means a low-scoring contest is likely. The biggest risk to this verdict is Iran's own patchy form (no wins in their last five), which could open the door for a draw if their finishing falters.
Iraq vs Iran: Common Questions
Who will win Iraq vs Iran?
The model gives Iran a 48% chance of victory, compared to 24% for Iraq and 28% for a draw, making Iran the clear favourites.
Will both teams score in Iraq vs Iran?
The probability for both teams to score is just 44%, with a 56% chance that at least one side keeps a clean sheet, reflecting the model's low expected goals for both teams.
What is at stake in this Iraq vs Iran friendly?
While this is a friendly and not a competitive group-stage match, both sides will be looking to build momentum and test lineups ahead of World Cup qualifiers, with Iran aiming to reassert regional dominance.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Iraq vs Iran: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 9 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.