Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Predictions
Super League · China
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Dalian Zhixing
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 2(+20% edge)
Match Result
6.5/10Stanciu Strike Lifts Dalian Zhixing Past Chongqing in Tight Super League Clash
Dalian Zhixing edged Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0 at the Longxing Football Stadium, thanks to a decisive second-half goal from Nicolae Stanciu. In a match where both sides struggled to carve out clear-cut opportunities, it was Stanciu's clinical finish in the 63rd minute that ultimately separated the teams. Chongqing, despite enjoying more possession (56%), could not find a way past a disciplined Dalian defense and were limited to just two shots on target. The visitors, set up in a 4-2-3-1, looked more dangerous on the break and managed 12 shots overall, matching Chongqing's tally for shots on target. With no cards issued and few clear scoring chances, the match was a tactical battle decided by a moment of quality from Dalian's Romanian midfielder. Chongqing's late push failed to yield an equalizer, leaving the home fans frustrated.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
63' — Goal
Nicolae Stanciu scores the decisive goal for Dalian Zhixing, finishing off a swift attacking move.
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long controlled the tempo for much of the match, holding 56% possession and attempting to build patiently from the back in their 5-4-1 setup. However, their attacking play lacked cutting edge, and they managed just two shots on target from nine attempts. Despite a solid defensive shape, they were undone by a single lapse that led to Dalian's winner. The hosts pushed forward in the closing stages but could not break down a resolute Dalian back line, ultimately failing to convert possession into meaningful chances.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing executed their game plan effectively, sitting deeper and looking to exploit spaces on the counter. With 44% possession, they were more direct and managed 12 shots, matching Chongqing for shots on target but showing greater attacking intent. The decisive moment came in the 63rd minute when Nicolae Stanciu found the net, capping a strong individual performance. Defensively, Dalian were well organized, conceding few clear chances and managing the final stages with composure to secure all three points away from home.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Chongqing lined up in a 5-4-1, prioritizing defensive solidity and control in midfield, which allowed them to dominate possession but left them short of numbers in attack. Their wing-backs pushed high at times, but Dalian’s disciplined back four and double pivot limited Chongqing’s ability to create clear chances. Dalian Zhixing’s 4-2-3-1 provided balance between defense and attack. They absorbed pressure well and looked to transition quickly, with Stanciu pulling the strings behind Acheampong. The visitors’ greater directness and willingness to shoot ultimately paid dividends, while their defensive shape frustrated Chongqing’s attempts to find an equalizer.
Turning Point
Nicolae Stanciu’s goal in the 63rd minute, which gave Dalian the lead and forced Chongqing to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Nicolae Stanciu
Scored the match-winning goal and was the creative heartbeat for Dalian Zhixing.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing: Match Preview
Chongqing Tongliang Long enter this fixture seventh in the Super League, having taken just two points from their last five league matches and failing to score in three of those. Dalian Zhixing sit just above them in sixth, but their form is streaky: two wins and three losses in the last five, with a heavy 3-1 defeat at Yunnan Yukun last time out. Both sides remain in the congested mid-table, with only two points separating them and a potential leap up the table on offer for the winner.
Statistically, this is a meeting of contrasting profiles. The hosts have kept two clean sheets in five but average just 0.8 goals per game in that stretch, while Dalian Zhixing's away games see a league-high 3.45 goals per match (13 scored, 25 conceded in 11 away). Dalian's attack is firing (1.6 goals per game in the last five, failed to score just once in that span), but their defence remains vulnerable, especially on the road. Chongqing's home record (16 scored, 13 conceded in 11) is stable but unspectacular, suggesting they may struggle to keep pace if the match opens up.
The model expects Dalian Zhixing's attacking intent and defensive looseness to shape the contest, with above-average probabilities for over 2.5 goals (60%) and both teams to score (57%). The likeliest scenario is an open game decided by the away side's superior shot volume (13.2 shots, 5.8 on target per match in the last five) against a Chongqing attack that has lacked cutting edge. A 2-1 away win is the modal outcome.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing that most previews miss.
- 1Dalian Zhixing's away matches have produced 3.45 goals per game, the highest in the league among top-half sides.
- 2Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 league outings, despite averaging 8.8 shots per match.
- 3Four of the last five Dalian Zhixing games have seen both teams score, with BTTS hitting at 80% in that span.
Who do you think wins: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
With Dalian Zhixing's matches seeing 63.6% over 2.5 goals this season and their away games averaging 3.45 goals, the model assigns a 60% probability to over 2.5 goals, well above the league average.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Dalian Zhixing Win
Dalian Zhixing's attack is producing 1.5 goals per game and 1.6 per match over the last five, while Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to score in three of their last five; the away side's win probability is 45%.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction
This fixture sets up as a clash between Chongqing Tongliang Long's relatively solid home record and Dalian Zhixing's high-scoring, high-variance away profile. The underlying rates point to a goal-rich environment, with the visitors' attacking output and defensive frailty both pushing the expected goals line upward.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Dalian Zhixing's matches average 3.18 goals per game, with a 63.6% over 2.5 rate.
Defence
- →Dalian Zhixing concede 2.27 goals per away game but also score 1.18 on the road.
Match Context
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to score in three of their last five league matches.
🚩 Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 4.4 for Dalian Zhixing, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Dalian Zhixinglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Long have struggled for momentum, recording just one win in their last five league matches and failing to score in three of those. Dalian Zhixing's form is patchy but more productive in attack, with three wins and eight goals from their last five, though defensive lapses remain a concern.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
What History Says: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing
The head-to-head record is balanced, with both teams claiming two wins and a draw in the last five meetings. Notably, away sides have won three of those encounters, including Chongqing's 1-0 victory at Dalian earlier this season, suggesting home advantage has been minimal in this fixture.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
2
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
1
Draws
3
Dalian Zhixing wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing
The model's strongest value edge is on over 2.5 goals, where the 60% probability outpaces typical market odds. There is also a notable edge on the away win, with Dalian Zhixing's win probability at 45% compared to likely market pricing. Both positions are underpinned by Dalian's high goal involvement and Chongqing's attacking inconsistency.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value estimates are based on model probabilities only.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is volatile, with Dalian Zhixing alternating wins and losses and Chongqing struggling for goals.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed; late changes could impact attacking or defensive strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–2 Dalian ZhixingThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Dalian Zhixing, driven by their high away goal involvement (3.45 goals per away match) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's recent attacking struggles. The most plausible way this prediction goes wrong is if the home side's improved defensive discipline (two clean sheets in five) manages to stifle Dalian's attack, keeping the scoreline lower than expected.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing: Common Questions
Who will win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing?
The model gives Dalian Zhixing a 45% chance of victory, with Chongqing Tongliang Long at 26% and the draw at 29%. Dalian's superior attacking output and Chongqing's recent scoring issues tip the balance toward the away side.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing?
There is a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals, reflecting Dalian Zhixing's high-scoring away matches (63.6% over 2.5 this season) and Chongqing's defensive inconsistency.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 57%, with Dalian Zhixing seeing BTTS in four of their last five and Chongqing failing to score in three of five, so the risk is weighted toward the away attack breaking through.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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