Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon Predictions
Super League · China
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Qingdao Jonoon
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
Match Result
7.2/10Chongqing Tongliang Long Outclass Qingdao Jonoon with Early Double
Chongqing Tongliang Long delivered a commanding performance at the Tongliang Long Stadium, securing a 2-0 victory over Qingdao Jonoon in front of their home fans. The hosts struck twice in the first half, with goals in the 19th and 30th minutes, and maintained control for much of the match despite a slight possession disadvantage (49% to 51%). Qingdao Jonoon, though marginally ahead in possession and corners, struggled to convert their opportunities, registering just four shots on target from twelve attempts. The match was defined by Chongqing's clinical finishing and disciplined defensive structure. While both sides lined up in a 4-4-2 formation, it was the home team's midfield that provided the spark, creating chances and stifling Qingdao's creative outlets. A yellow card apiece reflected a match played with intensity but largely within the bounds of fair play. Ultimately, Chongqing's early goals proved insurmountable, as Qingdao failed to mount a meaningful comeback.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
19' — Goal
Nany Dimata opens the scoring for Chongqing Tongliang Long with a well-taken finish.
30' — Goal
Chongqing double their lead, capitalizing on sustained pressure and a precise assist from Alexandru Cîmpanu.
38' — Yellow Card
Chongqing's Zhixiong Zhang goes into the book for a tactical foul.
44' — Yellow Card
Qingdao's Malcom Edjouma is cautioned after a late challenge in midfield.
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long impressed with a strong start, capitalizing on their chances to build a 2-0 lead before the half-hour mark. The home side fired 18 shots, 8 of which were on target, showing attacking intent and efficiency. Their midfield quartet orchestrated play well, balancing creativity with defensive responsibility, while the backline, marshaled by Lucão, limited Qingdao's threat in open play.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon enjoyed marginally more possession (51%) and earned eight corners, but their attack lacked sharpness, with only four shots on target. Despite a spirited effort in midfield, they struggled to break down Chongqing's defense and were punished for lapses in concentration early on. Their 4-4-2 setup failed to yield the desired attacking cohesion, and the team could not recover after conceding twice in the opening half hour.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams deployed a 4-4-2 formation, but Chongqing Tongliang Long's midfield proved more dynamic, especially in transition. Their wide players stretched Qingdao's backline, creating space for Dimata and Xiang up front. Chongqing pressed aggressively in the first half, forcing turnovers that led to their two goals. Qingdao Jonoon, despite enjoying more possession, often found their attacks stalling in the final third, with Chongqing's compact defensive shape denying them space. Set pieces offered Qingdao some hope, but Chongqing defended corners resolutely. Substitutions in the second half saw both teams attempt to freshen their midfields, but neither side altered their basic shape. Chongqing's tactical discipline and early initiative proved decisive, as they managed the game effectively after building their lead.
Turning Point
Dimata's opener in the 19th minute gave Chongqing early momentum and forced Qingdao onto the back foot, shaping the remainder of the contest.
Man of the Match
Nany Dimata
Scored the crucial opening goal and led the line with energy and purpose, setting the tone for Chongqing's victory.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon: Match Preview
Chongqing Tongliang Long return to Tongliang Long Stadium looking to halt a run of three draws and two defeats in their last five, but their mid-table position (9th) offers a degree of comfort. Qingdao Jonoon, by contrast, arrive rooted to the foot of the table, having lost five consecutive matches and conceded a staggering 15 goals in that period. With relegation looming, Jonoon's need for points is desperate, but their current trajectory offers little hope.
The tactical matchup is defined by defensive vulnerability, especially from the visitors. Chongqing have conceded 1.4 goals per game over their last five, but Jonoon's away record is catastrophic—34 goals conceded in 14 away fixtures and an average of three shipped per match in their last five overall. Offensively, Jonoon's shot output (14.6 per game) is surprisingly robust, yet their conversion rate and defensive transitions are letting them down. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, and BTTS has landed in four of Jonoon's last five.
Given these trends, the model expects Chongqing to capitalise on Jonoon's defensive fragility, but not without a scare. A 2-1 home win is forecast, with both sides likely to find the net. The main risk is Jonoon's shot volume finally translating into goals, but their ongoing defensive issues and lack of momentum make Chongqing the more reliable proposition.
How Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Qingdao Jonoonlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Long have been grinding out results, drawing three and losing two of their last five, but have only lost once at home in that period. Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, are mired in a five-game losing streak, conceding 15 goals and showing little sign of reversing their downward spiral. The momentum is clearly with the hosts, whose steadier form offers a stark contrast to Jonoon's collapse.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon that most previews miss.
- 1Qingdao Jonoon have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five matches and average 3.0 conceded per game in that span.
- 2Chongqing Tongliang Long have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, but have only failed to score twice in that period.
- 3BTTS has landed in seven of the last ten combined matches involving these teams.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
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The Case For This Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction
This fixture brings together two sides trending in opposite directions: Chongqing Tongliang Long grinding out draws and narrow defeats, while Qingdao Jonoon spiral through a brutal losing streak. The home side's recent form string of DLLDL is unspectacular but steady, whereas Jonoon's LLLLL run is marked by defensive collapses and a league-worst away record. With both teams desperate for points—Chongqing to cement mid-table safety, Jonoon to avoid finishing bottom—the stakes are clear. Statistically, the contrast is sharpest at the back. Chongqing have conceded just 1.4 goals per game over their last five, but Jonoon are leaking three per match in the same span, including a 1-5 home defeat and 34 goals shipped in 14 away games all season. Offensively, neither side is prolific, but Jonoon's shot volume (14.6 per game) hints at a team still creating chances, even if their finishing and defensive balance are lacking. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, and BTTS has landed in seven of their last ten combined. The model expects Chongqing's home solidity and Jonoon's defensive frailty to decide this contest. With momentum on Chongqing's side and Jonoon's away woes deepening, a 2-1 home win is forecast. The likeliest deviation comes if Jonoon's attack finally makes their shot count tell, but recent form and underlying numbers both favour the hosts.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Qingdao Jonoon have lost five straight, conceding 15 goals in that stretch.
- →Qingdao Jonoon have the league's worst away defence: 34 conceded in 14 away matches.
Match Context
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long have drawn three of their last five, losing only once at home in that span.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
Chongqing Tongliang Long have lost only one of their last five at home and are facing a Qingdao Jonoon side on a five-match losing streak, conceding 15 goals in that span.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Qingdao Jonoon's last five matches average 3.8 total goals, with four of five seeing both teams score, while Chongqing's attack has shown some life at home.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Despite poor results, Qingdao Jonoon have only failed to score once in their last five, and Chongqing have kept zero clean sheets in that period.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
🚩 Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 5.4 for Qingdao Jonoon, for an expected total of 11.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 80% · Over 10.5: 59%.
What History Says: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon
These sides have met only once before, with Chongqing Tongliang Long taking a 1-0 away win earlier this season. The limited head-to-head history offers little to override the current form signals, but does suggest Chongqing have the psychological edge.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Jonoon wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon
With no bookmaker odds available, direct value analysis is not possible. However, the model's probabilities strongly favour Chongqing based on recent form and Jonoon's defensive record. If market odds price the hosts closer to even money, there could be value backing the home win or BTTS given the underlying stats.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available—value analysis not possible.
- ⚠️Both teams have struggled for clean sheets, raising volatility in the goal markets.
- ⚠️Only one prior head-to-head; limited direct matchup history.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–1 Qingdao JonoonThe model projects a 2-1 win for Chongqing Tongliang Long, anchored by Qingdao Jonoon's five-match losing streak and league-worst away defence (34 conceded in 14 on the road). The biggest threat to this call is Jonoon's high shot volume, which could see them snatch more than one goal if Chongqing's defence wobbles.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon: Common Questions
Who will win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Chongqing Tongliang Long are favoured with a 48% win probability, while Qingdao Jonoon are given just a 20% chance. The hosts' recent stability and Jonoon's five-match losing streak drive this forecast.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Both teams to score is rated at 55%, with both sides failing to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches and BTTS landing in four of Jonoon's last five.
Can Qingdao Jonoon end their losing streak?
The model gives Jonoon only a 20% chance of victory, reflecting their five straight losses and defensive record of 3.0 goals conceded per game in the last five. However, their shot volume suggests they could threaten if Chongqing underperform.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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