Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Predictions
Super League · China
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Full Time
2 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 1
SHANGHAI SIPG
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
8.2/10Shanghai SIPG Edge Chongqing in Five-Goal Thriller at Longxing Stadium
Shanghai SIPG came from behind to secure a pulsating 3-2 victory over Chongqing Tongliang Long in an action-packed encounter at the Longxing Football Stadium. The hosts took the lead early and looked in control at halftime, but a spirited second-half display from SIPG saw them overturn the deficit and claim all three points. Chongqing struck first in the 19th minute and doubled their advantage just before the break, but Shanghai responded with two quick goals around halftime before netting the decisive winner in the 51st minute. Despite Chongqing's late pressure and six corners, SIPG's defense held firm to seal a vital away win in the Super League.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
19' — Goal
Chongqing take the lead with a well-worked move finished by Nany Dimata.
29' — Goal
Shanghai SIPG respond as Leonardo levels the score.
39' — Goal
SIPG take the lead with a quick break, finished by Óscar Melendo.
45' — Goal
Chongqing equalize on the stroke of halftime, restoring parity.
51' — Goal
Shanghai SIPG score the eventual winner, capitalizing on Chongqing's defensive lapse.
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long started brightly, capitalizing on their defensive solidity in a 5-4-1 setup to frustrate Shanghai and take a deserved lead. Their midfield worked tirelessly, and the wingbacks provided width, resulting in two well-taken goals in the first half. However, they struggled to maintain their intensity after the break and were undone by SIPG's attacking adjustments. Despite creating 12 shots (3 on target) and earning six corners, Chongqing couldn't find a way back after falling behind, and their discipline wavered with three yellow cards as they chased the game late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
SHANGHAI SIPG
Shanghai SIPG showed impressive resilience, overturning a two-goal deficit with clinical finishing and superior possession (54%). Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to control midfield, and their attacking quartet found space between Chongqing's lines, especially after the break. With five shots on target from eight attempts, SIPG made their chances count, scoring three times in a crucial 22-minute spell. The defense weathered late pressure, and their disciplined performance (zero cards) was key to seeing out the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Chongqing lined up in a compact 5-4-1, aiming to frustrate SIPG and hit on the break. Their wingbacks pushed high early, creating overloads and contributing to their first-half goals. However, after halftime, SIPG's 4-2-3-1 came to the fore, with Melendo and Vital finding pockets of space and linking up with Leonardo. SIPG's midfield double pivot allowed them to recycle possession and pin Chongqing back, while their pressing forced turnovers in dangerous areas. Substitutions from both sides sought to influence midfield control, but it was SIPG's tactical flexibility and attacking combinations that proved decisive. Chongqing's attempts to chase the game left them exposed, and SIPG managed the closing stages with composure.
Turning Point
The goal in the 51st minute that gave Shanghai SIPG the lead for the first time shifted the momentum decisively in their favor.
Man of the Match
Leonardo
Scored a crucial equalizer and played a pivotal role in SIPG's attacking threat throughout the match.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG: Match Preview
Chongqing Tongliang Long approach this fixture sitting second in the table, but their recent league form has cooled with just one win in their last five (form string: LWDDL). Their home record remains robust—just one defeat in ten—while SHANGHAI SIPG, currently 12th, have struggled for consistency, also winning only once in their last five and losing half of their away matches this season. With both sides drawing a high percentage of matches (Chongqing 8, SIPG 6), the points gap is more a function of defensive resilience than attacking firepower.
From a statistical perspective, Chongqing's home matches average 2.4 total goals (14 scored, 10 conceded in 10), while SIPG's away games are slightly more open at 2.8 (12 scored, 16 conceded in 10). However, both teams' last five matches have averaged just over two goals, and neither side has kept more than one clean sheet in that span. Chongqing's attack is heavily reliant on late goals (three of their last five goals scored after the 45th minute), while SIPG have scored five of their last seven in the first half, suggesting a potential contrast in goal timing.
The model expects a closely-fought contest with limited clear chances, as Chongqing's defensive structure at home should blunt SIPG's possession-heavy but often inefficient attack. With both teams showing a tendency to draw and neither attack in peak form, a 1-1 result emerges as the likeliest outcome, with the under 2.5 goals market offering a slight statistical edge.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG that most previews miss.
- 1Chongqing Tongliang Long have drawn five of ten home matches and conceded just once in three of their last five at home.
- 2SHANGHAI SIPG's away matches average 2.8 goals, but they've failed to score more than once in six of ten road games.
- 3Both teams have scored in three of Chongqing's and three of SIPG's last five league fixtures, but neither has kept more than one clean sheet in that run.
Who do you think wins: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average just over a goal per game in their respective home and away splits (Chongqing 1.4 GF/1.0 GA at home, SIPG 1.2 GF/1.6 GA away), and three of their last five matches each have finished with both teams scoring. The draw probability is highest among single outcomes.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Chongqing's matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 65% of league games, and their last five average just 2.2 total goals. SIPG are higher on the season (60% over), but away from home their scoring drops, making a low-scoring draw plausible.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction
This fixture sets up as a statistical deadlock: Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive solidity at home (1.0 goals conceded per home match) meets a SHANGHAI SIPG side whose away attack has struggled for consistency (1.2 goals per away game). Both teams have drawn over 40% of their league matches and arrive with nearly identical recent form, each winning just once in their last five league outings. The underlying rates suggest a contest likely to be decided by fine margins, with neither side trending towards a high-scoring outburst.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long have lost only once in ten home matches (W4 D5 L1), conceding just 10 goals.
- →SHANGHAI SIPG have the league's 12th-best away record, losing half of their away fixtures and conceding 1.6 goals per game on the road.
- →Both teams have seen three of their last five matches end with both teams scoring, but neither has kept more than one clean sheet in that span.
🚩 Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 5.3 for SHANGHAI SIPG, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How Chongqing Tongliang Long and SHANGHAI SIPG Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SHANGHAI SIPGlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Long have taken just one win from their last five league matches (form: LWDDL), with their attack sputtering but their defence holding firm at home. SHANGHAI SIPG mirror this inconsistency, alternating between wins and losses in their last five and struggling to find rhythm on the road, where they've lost five of ten. Both sides have been involved in low-scoring, tightly contested games recently.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 58% avg
What History Says: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG
The only previous meeting this season ended 2-1 in Chongqing's favour away from home, but with just one match played, no reliable H2H pattern has yet emerged. That result was an outlier compared to both teams' season-long scoring rates.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
0
Draws
1
SHANGHAI SIPG wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG
With bookmaker odds unavailable, no explicit value edges can be identified. The model's probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals are slightly more likely than a typical market might price, given both teams' high draw rates and Chongqing's defensive record at home.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG
- ⚠️Limited head-to-head data (only one prior meeting) reduces confidence in trend-based projections.
- ⚠️Recent form is mixed for both sides, with no clear momentum or collapse.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 SHANGHAI SIPGThe model projects a 1-1 draw, underpinned by Chongqing's low home goal concession rate (1.0 per match) and SIPG's inability to convert possession into goals away from home. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if SIPG's attack finds a breakthrough early, exploiting Chongqing's occasional first-half sluggishness, or if Chongqing's late-game scoring trend continues against a vulnerable SIPG defence.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG: Common Questions
Who will win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
The model gives Chongqing a 37% chance of victory, the draw a 33% probability, and SIPG a 30% chance. Both teams are drawing matches frequently, so a stalemate is the single likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
There's a 54% probability both teams score, driven by each side's recent trend of three BTTS results in their last five matches and SIPG's away defensive record (1.6 goals conceded per game).
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 52%, as Chongqing's matches have gone under in 65% of league games and both teams' recent scoring rates are modest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Resources
Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions
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SHANGHAI SIPG Predictions
All SHANGHAI SIPG fixtures & tips
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results