Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
Colorado Rapids
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
San Jose Earthquakes
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: San Jose Earthquakes Win
@ 3.5(+51% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Colorado Rapids Held by Resilient San Jose in Entertaining 1-1 Draw
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes played out a lively 1-1 draw at Dick's Sporting Goods Park, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. The Rapids dominated possession (63%) and peppered the San Jose goal with 13 shots—10 of them on target—but were left frustrated by a disciplined Earthquakes rearguard and a standout performance from goalkeeper E. Edwards. The hosts took the lead in the 27th minute, capitalizing on their early control, but San Jose responded well after the break, leveling in the 57th minute through a well-worked move. Despite late pressure from Colorado, the Earthquakes held firm, and the points were shared after a contest that saw both teams show their strengths and weaknesses.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/0 hit
Key Moments
27' — Goal
D. Phillip opens the scoring for Colorado after sustained pressure.
57' — Goal
P. Judd levels for San Jose, finishing off a rare attacking move.
68' — Yellow Card
Colorado's frustration grows as M. Whittaker is booked for a late challenge.
74' — Yellow Card
San Jose's D. Romney receives a yellow for time-wasting.
Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids started brightly, asserting themselves with a commanding 63% possession and a relentless attacking approach. Their 13 shots, including 10 on target, reflected their intent, but a lack of clinical finishing and some inspired goalkeeping from San Jose's E. Edwards limited them to just one goal. The midfield trio dictated play for long spells, and the full-backs pushed high to stretch the visitors' back five. However, the Rapids struggled to break down San Jose's compact defense after conceding the equalizer, and their frustration showed with 16 fouls and two yellow cards. Despite their dominance, they ultimately lacked the cutting edge to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes set up with a defensive 5-3-2 formation, ceding possession but remaining organized and dangerous on the counter. Despite only 37% possession and 9 shots (3 on target), they made their opportunities count, equalizing in the second half and frustrating the Rapids with disciplined defending. Goalkeeper E. Edwards was instrumental, making several key saves to keep San Jose in the match. The back five, marshaled by D. Romney and Jack Jasinski, absorbed pressure effectively, while the midfield trio worked tirelessly to disrupt Colorado's rhythm. The Earthquakes' resilience earned them a valuable away point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Colorado Rapids lined up in a 4-3-3, looking to dominate possession and use width to stretch San Jose's five-man backline. Their full-backs pushed high, and the midfield trio dictated the tempo, but the Earthquakes' compact shape limited space in the final third. San Jose's 5-3-2 was designed to frustrate, with wing-backs dropping deep and the midfield pressing selectively to force turnovers. After conceding, San Jose became more adventurous, pushing their midfield higher and capitalizing on a rare spell of pressure to equalize. Both teams made tactical tweaks with substitutions, but the overall shapes remained, with Colorado chasing a winner and San Jose content to defend deep and counter.
Turning Point
P. Judd's 57th-minute equalizer shifted momentum and forced Colorado to chase the game against a well-drilled defense.
Man of the Match
E. Edwards
His string of crucial saves denied Colorado a second goal and preserved a valuable point for San Jose.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes: Match Preview
Colorado Rapids approach this fixture with a formidable home record—nine wins from thirteen—yet their recent form is patchy, with just one victory in their last five league matches and ten goals conceded in that span. San Jose Earthquakes, meanwhile, sit fourth in the table and arrive on a five-match unbeaten streak (WDWWD), including three away wins in their last five road games. With playoff positioning at stake for both, the visitors’ superior points haul and goal difference (+10 to Colorado’s 0) reflect a more consistent campaign.
Statistically, this is a clash of Colorado’s home defensive solidity (0.92 goals conceded per home game) against San Jose’s dynamic away attack (1.85 goals scored per away match). Both sides are above league average for matches with over 2.5 goals—Colorado at 48.2%, San Jose at 59.3%—and each has seen BTTS land in at least three of their last five. Notably, San Jose’s shot volume (13 per game, 5.4 on target last five) and corner count (6.2 per match) point to sustained attacking pressure, while Colorado’s recent defensive lapses (2.0 goals conceded per game last five) are a concern.
The model projects an open contest with a 62% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood of both teams scoring. San Jose’s away efficiency and recent form tip the balance: their 43% win probability is well above market expectation, making them the statistical value. Colorado’s home edge and San Jose’s occasional defensive lapses keep the draw and high-scoring outcomes in play, but the most likely scenario is a narrow Earthquakes win.
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
63%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes that most previews miss.
- 1San Jose Earthquakes have scored in 12 of 13 away league matches this season (92%).
- 2Colorado Rapids’ home matches average just 2.85 goals, but their last three at home have all seen both teams score.
- 3Across the last 10 H2H, only 2 have ended in draws, with 7 producing at least 2 goals.
Who do you think wins: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: San Jose Earthquakes Win@ 3.47
San Jose Earthquakes have a 43% win probability by the model, far above the 28.6% implied by 3.50 odds. Their away record (7W/3D/3L, 24 GF, 17 GA) and recent form (WDWWD) support this, especially against a Colorado side with only 1 win in their last 5 and a middling home defence.
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The Case For This Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction
This fixture pits Colorado Rapids’ strong home record (9 wins from 13) against a San Jose Earthquakes side boasting the league’s fourth-best away form and a recent run of 4 wins in 5. With both teams averaging over 1.4 goals per game and conceding at similar rates, the statistical shape is set for an open contest with a slight edge to the visitors’ more consistent attack.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →San Jose Earthquakes score 1.85 goals per away game, Colorado Rapids concede only 0.92 per home game.
- →Colorado Rapids’ last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded.
Match Context
- →San Jose have failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 away matches.
🚩 Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Colorado Rapids and 4.2 for San Jose Earthquakes, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Colorado Rapidslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
San Jose Earthquakeslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Colorado Rapids have struggled for momentum, with just one win in their last five and ten goals conceded in that span. San Jose Earthquakes, by contrast, are unbeaten in five (WDWWD) and have scored at least once in every match, reflecting a more stable trajectory heading into this fixture.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
The last 10 head-to-head meetings are closely matched, with Colorado winning five and San Jose four. Draws are rare—just two in the last decade—and recent encounters have tended to favour the away side, with San Jose claiming two wins in their last three visits to Colorado.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Colorado Rapids wins
2
Draws
4
San Jose Earthquakes wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes’ win odds (3.50, 28.6% implied) significantly lag the model’s 43% probability, indicating strong value on the away side. Other markets, such as BTTS and under 2.5 goals, are priced close to model estimates, so the clearest edge lies in the 1x2 away selection.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
- ⚠️Colorado’s home defensive record is stronger than their overall numbers, which could suppress San Jose’s attack.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent results (Colorado 3-3 vs Seattle, San Jose 1-5 at home to Minnesota last month).
- ⚠️No key injuries reported, but starting XIs are not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Colorado Rapids 1–2 San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes are the model’s pick to edge this, with their away scoring rate (1.85 per game) and recent form (WDWWD) the strongest data points. The likeliest way this breaks is if Colorado’s home defensive numbers (0.92 GA/game) reassert themselves and suppress the visitors’ attack, leading to a lower-scoring draw.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes: Common Questions
Who will win Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 43% probability to win, compared to 31% for Colorado Rapids and 26% for a draw. San Jose’s superior away record and recent form drive this edge.
Will both teams score in Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
There’s a 59% probability both teams score, supported by Colorado’s 3 BTTS results in their last 5 and San Jose scoring in 12 of 13 away matches this season.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The model estimates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging above 1.4 goals scored per game and conceding at similar rates.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Resources
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results