Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Predictions
Super League · China
Dalian Zhixing
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 3
Beijing Guoan
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Beijing Guoan Win
Match Result
6.8/10Late Drama as Dalian Zhixing and 10-Man Beijing Guoan Share the Spoils
Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan played out a tense 1-1 draw at the Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, with both sides finding the net on either side of halftime. Beijing Guoan struck first in the 43rd minute, but Dalian Zhixing responded almost immediately after the restart, leveling the score in the 48th minute. The match was marked by physicality, with the visitors seeing red and accumulating three yellow cards, while Dalian Zhixing kept their discipline. Despite enjoying the lion’s share of possession (55%) and outshooting their opponents 11 to 10, Dalian Zhixing struggled to convert their dominance into clear-cut chances, managing just two shots on target. Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, were efficient on the break but their hopes of a late winner were hampered by a red card, forcing them to defend resolutely in the closing stages. Ultimately, both teams had to settle for a point in a contest that was as combative as it was closely contested.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 3
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
43' — Goal
Zhang Yuning puts Beijing Guoan ahead with a well-taken finish.
48' — Goal
Pedro Delgado equalizes for Dalian Zhixing, capitalizing on a quick restart.
Second Half' — Red Card
Beijing Guoan reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum in Dalian’s favor.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Beijing Guoan pick up three yellow cards as tempers flare.
Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing controlled possession and dictated much of the tempo, especially in the second half. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed them to build from the back and push numbers forward, but a lack of sharpness in the final third limited their effectiveness. The home side showed resilience to respond quickly after conceding, but despite having a man advantage late on, they could not find a winner. Their attacking midfielders, particularly Nicolae Stanciu and Frank Acheampong, tried to unlock the Guoan defense, but were often crowded out. Defensively, Dalian remained organized, conceding just three shots on target.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan executed a disciplined 4-4-2, absorbing pressure and striking on the counter. Their opening goal just before halftime was a reward for their efficiency, but the red card and accumulation of fouls (19) ultimately forced them into a more defensive posture in the latter stages. Despite being reduced to ten men, Guoan’s back line, marshaled by Guilherme Ramos and Gang Wang, held firm under late pressure. The midfield worked tirelessly, with Dawhan and Yongjing Cao breaking up play and launching transitions.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Dalian Zhixing’s 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate possession and stretch the play, but Beijing Guoan’s compact 4-4-2 made it difficult to penetrate centrally. The visitors relied on quick transitions and direct play, which paid off with the opening goal. After the red card, Guoan dropped deeper, switching to a low block and focusing on protecting their point. Substitutions from both sides aimed to inject fresh legs and tactical tweaks, but neither team could find the decisive breakthrough. Dalian’s use of width and overlapping full-backs created some promising moments, but their delivery and finishing let them down. Set pieces offered little joy for either side, with only four corners for Dalian and one for Guoan.
Turning Point
The red card to Beijing Guoan in the second half forced the visitors onto the back foot and gave Dalian Zhixing the initiative, but the home side’s inability to capitalize proved decisive.
Man of the Match
Pedro Delgado
His equalizer and tireless work up front kept Dalian Zhixing in the contest and nearly delivered all three points.
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan: Match Preview
Beijing Guoan enter this fixture as the league's form side, riding a four-match winning streak that has propelled them into second place and within striking distance of the summit. Their recent run has seen them sweep aside opponents with a combined 15-3 aggregate over five matches, while Dalian Zhixing have stumbled, picking up just five points from their last five and sliding to sixth. For Dalian, this is a test of whether their strong home form can offset a worrying defensive trend and keep them in the hunt for continental places.
Statistically, the contrast is stark. Beijing Guoan's attack is rampant, averaging 3.0 goals and 5.2 shots on target per game in their last five, while Dalian have managed just 1.2 goals per game and conceded 1.6. The visitors are also controlling games, with 53.6% possession and a healthy shot differential, whereas Dalian's possession and shot numbers have dipped. Both sides have been involved in high-scoring matches, but Dalian's defensive frailties—highlighted by just one clean sheet in five—look especially vulnerable against Guoan's in-form front line. Discipline could be a subplot, with Dalian averaging almost three yellows per game recently.
The model expects Beijing Guoan's momentum to carry them through, especially in the second half where they've netted nine times in five games. Dalian's home record (eight wins from eleven) suggests they won't go quietly, but Guoan's superior form and H2H dominance point to an away win in a match that should see goals at both ends.
How Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Dalian Zhixinglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Beijing Guoanlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Beijing Guoan are the league's form team, stringing together four consecutive wins and scoring at will, with 15 goals in their last five. Dalian Zhixing, meanwhile, have struggled for consistency, managing just one win in the same span and conceding eight goals. The momentum is firmly with the visitors, whose recent results and attacking output far outstrip Dalian's patchy run.
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.0 goals/game (last 5)
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan that most previews miss.
- 1Beijing Guoan have scored at least twice in each of their last four matches, averaging 3.0 goals per game in that span.
- 2Dalian Zhixing have seen both teams score in four of their last five, with no failed-to-score in that period.
- 3This fixture has never seen a Dalian Zhixing win in four meetings, with Guoan winning three and drawing one.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 2.35
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Prediction
Beijing Guoan's surge up the table has been powered by a relentless attack, netting 15 times in their last five and riding a four-match winning streak. Dalian Zhixing, by contrast, have stuttered through a patchy run, with just one win in five and a leaky defence that has conceded multiple goals in three of those outings. The momentum is firmly with the visitors, who are hunting down the league leaders and have a dominant recent record in this fixture. On the pitch, Beijing Guoan's forward line is in irresistible form, averaging 3.0 goals and 5.2 shots on target per game across their last five. Dalian Zhixing's defence has struggled to keep pace, conceding 1.6 per game recently and only keeping one clean sheet. The home side's attack has at least remained competitive, scoring in every recent match, but their shot and possession numbers (10.4 shots, 40.6% possession) lag behind the visitors' more assertive stats. Set-piece data is fairly balanced, though Dalian's higher foul and card counts (16.4 fouls, 2.8 yellows per game) could see them under pressure. Expect Beijing Guoan to dictate play, especially after the break, where they've scored nine second-half goals in five matches. Dalian's resilience at home (eight wins from eleven) could keep things interesting early, but the visitors' firepower and recent H2H dominance suggest they'll pull away as the match wears on.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Beijing Guoan are on a four-match winning streak, scoring 15 goals in that span.
Defence
- →Dalian Zhixing have won just once in their last five and conceded eight goals over those games.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head: Beijing Guoan have won three of the last four meetings, including a 3-0 earlier this season.
Where the Model Sees Value: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Beijing Guoan Win
Beijing Guoan arrive on a four-match winning streak, scoring 3+ goals in each of their last three, while Dalian Zhixing have just one win in five and have conceded eight goals in that span. The visitors' attacking momentum and dominant H2H record (three wins from four, including a 3-0 earlier this season) point strongly to an away victory.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides are trending towards high-scoring matches: Dalian Zhixing's last five have averaged 2.8 goals, Beijing Guoan's an even higher 4.0, and both teams are above 60% for over 2.5 goals on the season. The visitors' recent form (15 goals in five) suggests another open contest.
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BTTS: Yes
Dalian Zhixing have scored in each of their last five despite mixed results, and four of those saw both teams score. Beijing Guoan's attack is rampant, but they've conceded in three of their last five, so both teams finding the net is a plausible outcome.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
🚩 Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Dalian Zhixing and 3.7 for Beijing Guoan, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
What History Says: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan have enjoyed clear superiority in this fixture, winning three of the last four meetings and drawing the other. The most recent encounter ended 3-0 in their favour, and Dalian Zhixing have yet to record a win against Guoan in Super League or cup play.
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
0
Dalian Zhixing wins
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan
With odds unavailable, it's not possible to quantify value edges directly. However, the model's strong lean towards Beijing Guoan—especially given their recent scoring spree and H2H record—would likely highlight value on the away win or goals markets if prices were generous. Dalian's home record is a caution, but momentum and matchup data both favour the visitors.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Dalian Zhixing's strong home record (8 wins from 11) is a potential counterweight to their recent dip.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed and late injuries or rotations could impact the prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dalian Zhixing 1–3 Beijing GuoanThe numbers point to Beijing Guoan extending their winning streak, with a 3-1 away victory the most likely outcome. The single strongest data point is Guoan's recent attacking output—15 goals in five matches, including three or more in each of their last three. The biggest risk is Dalian's strong home record, which could keep the contest tighter if Guoan's finishing cools off or if Dalian's attack capitalises on set pieces.
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan: Common Questions
Who will win Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan are strong favourites, with the model giving them a 63% chance of victory based on their four-match winning streak and potent attack. Dalian Zhixing have just a 15% probability of taking all three points.
Will Beijing Guoan's winning run continue?
The data heavily favours Beijing Guoan to extend their streak: they've scored 15 goals in their last five and have won three of the last four meetings with Dalian. The model rates their chances of avoiding defeat (win or draw) at 85%.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, the model estimates a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging above 1.5 goals scored per game recently and both trending towards high-scoring fixtures.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 21 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.