Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town Predictions
FA Cup · England
Dorking Wanderers
AI Predicted Score
2 - 2
Chatham Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town
Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town: Match Preview
Dorking Wanderers enter this FA Cup tie on the back of four consecutive draws, each featuring at least four goals, highlighting both their attacking output and defensive instability. Their last five matches have seen them score 11 and concede 10, with no clean sheets since August. Chatham Town, meanwhile, have won three of their last five in all competitions, including two FA Cup away victories with a combined goal difference of 5-0, but have shown vulnerability in league play, conceding three across two recent defeats.
The statistical shape of this fixture is defined by Dorking’s high-scoring, high-variance profile: they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game in their last five, and all their season matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Chatham Town’s defence has been watertight in the cup but less so in the league, while their attack has produced in both settings. Notably, Dorking have scored in every recent outing, and Chatham have failed to score just once in their last five, with both sides showing a tendency for second-half goals.
The model expects a match with multiple momentum swings and a strong likelihood of both teams scoring. With neither side demonstrating reliable defensive control and each averaging over 1.5 goals per game, a 2-2 draw emerges as the modal outcome. The lack of H2H history and limited league data add uncertainty, but the offensive rates and recent match patterns point to an open contest with a high probability of three or more goals.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
69%
BTTS: Yes
69%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town that most previews miss.
- 1Dorking Wanderers have seen both teams score in four of their last five matches, with an average total of 4.2 goals per game in that span.
- 2Chatham Town have kept clean sheets in both FA Cup away matches this season but have conceded in three of their last four league games.
- 3Dorking’s home matches this season average 5.0 goals per game, while Chatham’s away FA Cup matches average 2.5 scored and 0 conceded.
Who do you think wins: Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides average over 2 goals scored per game in their last five, with Dorking Wanderers seeing 100% of their season matches go over 2.5 goals and Chatham Town at 50%. The model projects a 72% probability for over 2.5 goals, supported by Dorking's 4 of last 5 matches featuring both teams scoring and high goal counts.
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BTTS: Both Teams To Score: Yes
Dorking Wanderers have scored in all of their last five matches and conceded in four, while Chatham Town have only failed to score once in that stretch. The BTTS rate for Dorking is 80% in recent games, and the model assigns a 68% probability for both sides to find the net.
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The Case For This Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town Prediction
Statistically, this tie projects as one of the highest goal environments in the round. Dorking Wanderers' matches have averaged 4.2 goals in their last five, with a leaky defence offset by a consistently productive attack. Chatham Town arrive with a perfect away defensive record in the cup, but their league outings have been more open, and their attack has produced at least one goal in four of their last five.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Dorking Wanderers have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game across their last five matches.
- →Chatham Town have kept two clean sheets in their last five but conceded twice in both league defeats.
- →All of Dorking's season matches have gone over 2.5 goals; Chatham Town's away record is 5 scored, 0 conceded in the cup.
How Dorking Wanderers and Chatham Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Dorking Wandererslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Chatham Townlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dorking Wanderers have drawn four of their last five, all in high-scoring affairs, and have not kept a clean sheet in that stretch. Chatham Town have alternated between strong cup performances and patchier league form, but have three wins in their last five and two clean sheets, suggesting a slightly steadier trajectory.
Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Things to Watch: Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town
- ⚠️No historical head-to-head data is available, limiting matchup-specific insight.
- ⚠️Standings and detailed home/away league splits are missing for both sides.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so value calculations are model-only.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dorking Wanderers 2–2 Chatham TownThe model projects a 2-2 draw, driven primarily by Dorking Wanderers’ extreme over 2.5 goal rate and their inability to keep clean sheets. The most plausible way this forecast fails is if Chatham Town’s cup defensive form translates to a more controlled, lower-scoring contest than the underlying averages suggest.
Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town: Common Questions
Who will win Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town?
The model gives Dorking Wanderers a 31% chance to win, Chatham Town a 33% chance, and a draw at 36%. Both sides have shown attacking strength but defensive weaknesses, making a draw the most likely single result.
Will both teams score in Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town?
There is a 68% probability that both teams will score, supported by Dorking’s 80% BTTS rate in recent matches and Chatham Town scoring in four of their last five.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town?
The model assigns a 72% probability to over 2.5 goals, with Dorking seeing every season match go over this line and both teams averaging more than 2 goals scored per game in recent outings.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.