Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing Predictions
FA Cup · England
Ebbsfleet United
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Sholing
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7/10Sholing Stun Ebbsfleet with Second-Half Comeback in FA Cup Thriller
Sholing produced a memorable upset in the FA Cup, overturning an early deficit to defeat Ebbsfleet United 2-1 away from home. The hosts took the lead in the 20th minute, seemingly setting themselves on course for a comfortable afternoon, but Sholing responded with grit and determination, equalizing just before half-time and then seizing the advantage midway through the second half. The match was played in a competitive spirit, with neither side receiving any bookings, and while detailed statistics are unavailable, the flow of goals tells the story of a game that swung dramatically. Ebbsfleet’s early opener was cancelled out by Sholing’s resilience, and the visitors’ winner in the 69th minute capped a disciplined, opportunistic performance that sends them into the next round.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
20' — Goal
Ebbsfleet United open the scoring to take an early lead.
40' — Goal
Sholing equalize, shifting the momentum before half-time.
69' — Goal
Sholing score the winner, completing their comeback.
Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United started brightly, capitalizing on early momentum to open the scoring in the 20th minute. However, after conceding the equalizer just before the break, the hosts struggled to regain control. Despite their efforts to push forward in the second half, they were undone by Sholing’s decisive goal in the 69th minute and could not find a way back into the match. The lack of disciplinary issues reflected a clean game, but Ebbsfleet will rue their inability to build on their early advantage and their failure to respond after falling behind.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sholing
Sholing showed impressive character and tactical discipline to come from behind and secure a famous 2-1 FA Cup victory. After conceding early, they remained composed, equalizing in the 40th minute to shift the momentum. Their second-half performance was marked by resilience and opportunism, culminating in a well-taken winner in the 69th minute. The visitors managed the game effectively after taking the lead, keeping their composure and seeing out the result without resorting to fouls or bookings.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With full lineups and formations unavailable, the match flow suggests Ebbsfleet United looked to assert themselves early, likely pressing high and pushing numbers forward to secure the opener. After conceding the equalizer, their tactical shape may have become stretched as they chased a second goal, leaving gaps that Sholing exploited on the counter. Sholing’s disciplined approach, especially after taking the lead, was evident in their ability to manage the game without conceding fouls or bookings. Their resilience and ability to strike at key moments proved decisive, while Ebbsfleet struggled to adapt tactically after falling behind.
Turning Point
Sholing’s equalizer in the 40th minute, which shifted the momentum and set the stage for their second-half winner.
Man of the Match
Sholing second goalscorer
Scored the decisive winner and led the line with composure in a famous cup upset.
Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing: Match Preview
Ebbsfleet United come into this FA Cup tie off the back of a 3-1 away win over Maidenhead, extending a steady run that includes two wins, two draws, and a single defeat in their last five matches. Sholing, meanwhile, have mirrored that stability, winning both of their FA Cup ties without conceding and posting three clean sheets in their last five. With both sides lacking recent league context at this level, the matchup is statistically balanced and motivation will be high for a cup run.
The underlying numbers point to a low-scoring contest. Ebbsfleet average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game across their last five, while Sholing's figures sit at 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, though they have not allowed a goal in the FA Cup this season. Both teams' matches have seen a majority of goals after the break, but neither side has shown a consistent ability to dominate the first half. Set-piece and discipline data are unavailable, but the low total goal and corner averages suggest a tight, risk-averse tactical approach.
Given the statistical parity and lack of clear attacking superiority, the model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, with under 2.5 goals the favoured market. The main risk to this scenario is a defensive lapse or early goal that opens up the game, but the recent defensive records and low shot volumes point to a cautious, evenly-matched encounter.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing that most previews miss.
- 1Sholing have kept clean sheets in both of their FA Cup matches this season, conceding zero goals in 180 minutes.
- 2Ebbsfleet's last five matches have averaged just 2.2 total goals, with only one match featuring more than two goals.
- 3Both teams have failed to score in the first half in three of their last five matches, highlighting a trend towards slow starts.
Who do you think wins: Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline is the most statistically probable outcome, with both sides averaging just over a goal per game in their last five and defensive numbers suggesting a low-scoring draw is likely.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams' season and recent averages point to a low goal environment: Ebbsfleet's last five average 2.2 total goals, Sholing's 2.4, and Sholing have yet to concede in the FA Cup this season.
Read more ↓
More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing Prediction
A statistical deadlock is forecast between Ebbsfleet United and Sholing, with both sides showing similar goal output and defensive records in recent outings. The underlying rates point to a contest where neither attack is likely to overwhelm the other, and the draw emerges as the likeliest result.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams' most recent matches have featured low shot and goal counts, indicating a low-scoring trend.
Defence
- →Ebbsfleet have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five matches.
- →Sholing have kept three clean sheets in their last five and have not conceded in the FA Cup this season.
How Ebbsfleet United and Sholing Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Ebbsfleet Unitedlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sholinglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ebbsfleet United have put together a solid run, losing just once in their last five and picking up a notable 3-1 win at Maidenhead in the previous round. Sholing are on a similar trajectory, with three wins from five and no goals conceded in their two FA Cup ties, though their league form has been more mixed. Both sides appear defensively organised, but neither has shown a prolific attack in recent outings.
Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing
There is no available head-to-head data between Ebbsfleet United and Sholing, so no direct rivalry or recurring scoreline can be identified for this fixture.
Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Ebbsfleet United wins
0
Draws
1
Sholing wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing
With no bookmaker odds provided, it's not possible to identify value edges for this fixture. The model's probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals would be the primary areas to watch for value if odds become available, given the low-scoring trends and balanced recent form.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data; relative strength is inferred from recent form and goal rates.
- ⚠️Limited sample size for both teams' season records, especially for Sholing at this level.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ebbsfleet United 1–1 SholingThe data points to a low-scoring draw, with 1-1 the likeliest result based on both teams' recent goal rates and defensive solidity. The strongest statistical signal is Sholing's run of clean sheets in the FA Cup, but the small sample and lack of league context mean a single defensive error could swing the match either way.
Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing: Common Questions
Who will win Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing?
The model gives Ebbsfleet a 32% chance of winning, Sholing a 30% chance, and the draw a 38% probability, making a draw the most likely outcome based on recent goal and defensive rates.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 62%, with both teams averaging just over a goal per game and Sholing yet to concede in the FA Cup this season.
Will both teams score in Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, reflecting balanced attacking output and neither side consistently keeping opponents scoreless in their last five matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.