Estac Troyes vs Le Havre Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Estac Troyes
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Le Havre
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+19% edge)
Recommended Bets: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre: Match Preview
Troyes return to the Stade de l'Aube with a sense of tentative optimism after halting a four-match winless run with a 2-0 home victory over Le Mans and a goalless draw at Toulouse. Their recent form string of LWDLL belies a gradual defensive improvement, with two clean sheets in their last five and a more compact shape under pressure. Le Havre, by contrast, are in freefall: five consecutive defeats, 15 goals conceded, and a growing injury list have left them anchored to the bottom of Ligue 1 and searching for any sign of stability.
Statistically, this is a clash of the league's most anaemic attacks and leakiest defences. Troyes have averaged just 0.6 goals and 3.8 shots on target per game over their last five, but their defensive numbers have tightened, conceding only 1.2 per match in that span. Le Havre have generated far more attacking output—17.8 shots and 5 on target per game—but their defensive structure has collapsed, shipping three goals per match and failing to keep a single clean sheet. Injuries to key defenders further weaken their rearguard, and both sides have struggled to impose themselves early, with only three first-half goals between them in their last ten combined.
Given these trajectories, the model expects a tense, nervy contest where neither side can fully impose their will. Troyes' recent resilience at home and Le Havre's attacking intent but defensive chaos suggest both teams will have chances, but a lack of composure in front of goal and mutual anxiety are likely to see the points shared. A 1-1 draw is the likeliest outcome, with neither side able to break their negative momentum decisively.
How Estac Troyes and Le Havre Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Injuries & Suspensions
Estac Troyes
Le Havre
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Estac Troyeslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Le Havrelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Troyes have taken four points from their last three matches, including a 2-0 home win and a goalless draw, suggesting a side slowly regaining confidence after a poor start. Le Havre, in contrast, have lost five in a row and conceded 15 goals in that span, with defensive injuries compounding their problems. Both teams remain in the relegation zone, but Troyes' recent results hint at a modest upward trajectory.
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Estac Troyes vs Le Havre that most previews miss.
- 1Le Havre have conceded at least two goals in all of their last five matches, but have scored in three of those.
- 2Troyes have failed to score in three of their last five, but kept two clean sheets—both in games where they faced fewer than 10 shots.
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, only one has ended level, with the home side winning six times.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
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The Case For This Estac Troyes vs Le Havre Prediction
Troyes have steadied after a brutal September, taking four points from their last three and showing improved defensive discipline, while Le Havre are mired in a five-match losing run and have yet to taste victory all season. Both clubs are sitting in the relegation zone, but Troyes' recent home win over Le Mans and a credible draw at Toulouse hint at a side beginning to halt their slide. Le Havre, meanwhile, have been punished for defensive lapses and late-game collapses, conceding 15 goals in their last five and rarely keeping opponents at bay. The tactical contrast is stark: Troyes' attack remains blunt (0.6 goals per game, three blanks in five), but their last two home matches saw a combined 20 shots and a rare clean sheet. Le Havre, despite their struggles, have averaged 17.8 shots and 5 on target per match in their last five, but a porous defence (3.0 conceded per game, no clean sheets) and a raft of injuries to key defenders (Jelert, Mpasi, Zagadou, Pembélé) leave them exposed. Both teams have tended to start cautiously—just three combined first-half goals in their last ten matches—so the breakthrough may not come early. Momentum slightly favours Troyes, but neither side has shown the consistency or cutting edge to be trusted for a full three points. The model expects a tense, low-quality affair, with both teams' inability to defend set pieces and finish chances likely to cancel each other out. A 1-1 draw looks the likeliest outcome, driven by Le Havre's attacking volume but defensive frailty and Troyes' recent uptick in resilience.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both sides have struggled in attack, with Troyes failing to score in three of their last five and Le Havre blanking twice.
Defence
- →Troyes have collected four points from their last three, including a clean sheet and a home win.
- →Le Havre are on a five-game losing streak, conceding 15 goals in that span.
Where the Model Sees Value: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.5
Both sides are winless in four of their last five and have struggled to convert chances, with Troyes averaging just 0.6 goals and Le Havre conceding three per game but still showing attacking intent; the lack of clinical edge and mutual desperation point to a stalemate, and the model's 35% draw probability outpaces the 29% implied by the odds.
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🚩 Estac Troyes vs Le Havre Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Estac Troyes and 4.6 for Le Havre, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
What History Says: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre
Troyes have won five of the last ten meetings with Le Havre, including three of the last four at home, while draws have been rare between these sides. Most recent encounters have produced at least two goals, and the home side has often held the advantage. However, with both teams struggling for form, the historical edge is less pronounced this time.
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Estac Troyes wins
1
Draws
4
Le Havre wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre
The draw stands out as the market's misprice, with the model's 35% probability comfortably above the 29% implied by Bet365's 3.4 odds, offering a +19% edge. The BTTS 'no' market shows only marginal value, as both teams' attacking frailties could see at least one blank. Overall, the best value lies in backing a stalemate between two sides desperate to avoid defeat.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre
- ⚠️Le Havre's high shot volume could eventually yield more goals than recent results suggest.
- ⚠️Both sides' low confidence and defensive errors could lead to an unexpectedly open match.
- ⚠️Injuries to Le Havre's backline may force unfamiliar combinations, increasing unpredictability.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Estac Troyes 1–1 Le HavreA 1-1 draw is the model's call, driven by Le Havre's five-match losing streak and defensive collapse (three goals conceded per game), but also by Troyes' continued struggles to convert chances. The strongest data point is Le Havre's inability to keep clean sheets despite high attacking output. The main risk is that Le Havre's shot volume finally pays off, or Troyes' recent defensive improvement proves fragile against a desperate opponent.
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre: Common Questions
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
The model gives Troyes a 40% chance of victory, Le Havre 25%, and a draw 35%. Both teams are in poor form, but Troyes' recent defensive improvement and home advantage make them slight favourites to avoid defeat.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
There's a 52% probability for both teams to score, with Le Havre's last five matches featuring three BTTS outcomes and Troyes' attack showing signs of life at home.
Can Le Havre end their losing streak against Troyes?
Le Havre's five-match losing run and defensive injuries make an away win unlikely (25% probability), but their high shot count and Troyes' own struggles suggest a draw or narrow win is possible if they can finish their chances.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Estac Troyes vs Le Havre: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.