Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon Predictions
Ligue 1 ยท France
Stade Brestois 29
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Lyon
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+4% edge)
Recommended Bets: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon: Match Preview
Brest approach this fixture sitting 13th, having won just two of their eight league matches but scoring in every one. Their recent form is mixed (LDWDL), with a heavy 5-1 win over Angers offset by narrow defeats to Nice and Auxerre. Lyon, fifth in the table, have collected 14 points from eight games but come off back-to-back defeats in league and Europe, showing some defensive vulnerability away from home.
Statistically, the matchup leans towards goals. Brest's attack has produced 2.0 goals per game at home in their last five, but their defence has not kept a clean sheet all season (0% clean sheet rate). Lyon average just 0.75 goals scored per away league match but compensate with a season-long concession rate of 0.88 per game, though that rises to 2.0 per game in their last five in all competitions. Both teams have a high over 2.5 goals rate (Brest 75%, Lyon 50%), and Brest have seen BTTS in all of their last five league games.
The model expects Lyon's slightly superior defensive structure and league position to tilt the balance, but Brest's consistent scoring at home and Lyon's recent defensive lapses suggest a close contest. The most likely outcome is a narrow away win, but the probability distribution gives notable weight to both the draw and high-scoring scenarios.
๐ฎ Prediction Playground
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Expected goals ยท model says 1.30
Expected goals ยท model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 ยท 1-2 ยท 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above โ every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration โ not betting advice.
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon that most previews miss.
- 1Brest have seen both teams score in all of their last five Ligue 1 matches, with an average of 3.6 total goals per game in that span.
- 2Lyon's away matches in Ligue 1 average just 1.75 total goals, but their last five in all competitions have averaged 3.2 goals per game.
- 3In the last ten H2H meetings, only two matches ended goalless, with an average of 2.3 goals per game.
Who do you think wins: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.64
The model gives a 29% chance of the draw, slightly above the implied probability from the odds (28%). Both sides have drawn 3 of their combined last 10 league matches and the H2H shows three draws in the last ten meetings, supporting a competitive matchup.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.58
Brest have seen BTTS in all of their last five league matches, and Lyon have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five in all competitions. With both averaging at least 1.5 goals for and over 1.2 goals conceded in recent games, the rate supports this angle.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon Prediction
This fixture pits a Brest side with a leaky defence but consistent scoring against a Lyon outfit that has been more solid over the season but vulnerable on the road. With both teams averaging over 1.6 goals conceded per game in their last five, and neither side keeping a clean sheet in that span, the underlying rates point to a contest with goals at both ends. Lyon's superior overall record and away clean sheet percentage (37.5% for the season) gives them a slight edge, but Brest's home attack (2 goals per game in the last five at home) keeps the contest close.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- โBrest have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding 1.6 goals per game in that stretch.
- โLyon's away attack is modest (0.75 goals per away game in Ligue 1) but their overall defensive record is strong, conceding just 0.88 per match this season.
Match Context
- โBoth teams have seen over 2.5 goals in at least half of their league matches this season (Brest 75%, Lyon 50%).
๐ฉ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Stade Brestois 29 and 5.3 for Lyon, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 64% ยท Over 10.5: 38%.
How Stade Brestois 29 and Lyon Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals รท 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Stade Brestois 29last 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Lyonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Brest's recent form is patchy, with just one win in their last five league matches but goals in every outing and no clean sheets. Lyon, meanwhile, have lost their last two in all competitions but remain fifth in the table, buoyed by a strong home record but less convincing away (one win in four Ligue 1 away games). Both sides have shown defensive frailty in recent weeks.
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon โ Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack โ 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- โNo clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- โInconsistent โ 3+ losses in last 5
- โLeaky defence โ 2.0 conceded/game
- โNo clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon
The last ten meetings between these sides are almost perfectly balanced: Lyon have four wins, Brest three, and three draws. Three of the last five encounters have seen both teams score, and only two of the last ten have ended without a goal, suggesting a tendency for open games.
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Stade Brestois 29 wins
3
Draws
4
Lyon wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon
The model finds slight value on the draw at 3.6, with a 29% probability versus 28% implied by the odds. The BTTS market is also marginally positive, with a 63% model probability and odds implying 62%. There is no value on the under 2.5 goals line, as the market underprices the likelihood of a lower-scoring match given the teams' recent defensive records.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per ยฃ1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per ยฃ1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate โ always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon
- โ ๏ธRecent form samples are small (last five matches) and may not fully reflect underlying team strength.
- โ ๏ธNo injuries reported, but late lineup changes could affect predicted goal output.
- โ ๏ธLyon's Europa League involvement may introduce rotation risk or fatigue not reflected in the data.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk โ always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Stade Brestois 29 1โ2 LyonThe model projects a 2-1 win for Lyon, driven by their superior defensive record over the season (0.88 goals conceded per game) and Brest's inability to keep clean sheets. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Brest's attack, averaging 2.0 goals at home in recent matches, capitalises on Lyon's recent defensive lapses and turns the contest into a high-scoring draw.
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon: Common Questions
Who will win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon?
Lyon are rated as 45% likely to win, with Brest at 26% and the draw at 29%. Lyon's stronger defensive numbers and league position give them the edge, but Brest's home scoring keeps the contest close.
Will both teams score in Brest vs Lyon?
The probability for both teams to score is 63%, supported by Brest's 100% BTTS rate in their last five and Lyon's recent defensive struggles away from home.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Brest vs Lyon?
There's a 60% model probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams showing high over 2.5 rates this season (Brest 75%, Lyon 50%), but the market odds do not offer notable value at current prices.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline โ season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes โ see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.