Falmouth Town vs Frome Town Predictions
FA Cup · England
Falmouth Town
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Frome Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Frome Town Win
Falmouth Town vs Frome Town: Match Preview
Falmouth Town enter this FA Cup clash on the back of a mixed run, alternating wins and losses in their last five outings and conceding nearly two goals per game in that stretch. Frome Town, meanwhile, arrive with a marginally better recent record, having kept three clean sheets and scoring seven goals in their last five competitive fixtures, though they have lost their last two. With both sides yet to start their new league campaigns, the stakes are set by recent momentum and the chance to progress in the cup.
Statistically, Frome Town’s defensive solidity stands out: they have conceded just 0.6 goals per game over their last five, compared to Falmouth’s 1.8. Offensively, both teams have averaged 1.4 goals per match, but Frome’s ability to keep opponents out has translated into three wins and a draw in their last five. Historically, Frome have also had the upper hand in this matchup, winning two of the last three and scoring six in their last FA Cup visit to Falmouth.
The model expects a moderately open contest, with the away side’s defensive edge likely to prove decisive. Frome’s recent clean sheet rate, coupled with Falmouth’s tendency to concede, points towards a narrow away win in a match with a fair chance of over 2.5 goals. The likeliest scenario is a 2-1 victory for Frome, though a low-scoring draw remains plausible if Falmouth can tighten up at the back.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Falmouth Town vs Frome Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Falmouth Town vs Frome Town that most previews miss.
- 1Frome Town have kept clean sheets in three of their last five matches, conceding only three goals in that span.
- 2Falmouth Town have failed to score in two of their last five, including a 0-2 home defeat in their most recent fixture.
- 3Two of the last three head-to-heads have seen at least four goals, including a 6-2 Frome win at Falmouth.
Who do you think wins: Falmouth Town vs Frome Town?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Falmouth Town vs Frome Town(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Frome Town Win
Frome Town have averaged just 0.6 goals conceded per game across their last five, with three clean sheets, while Falmouth Town have failed to score in two of their last five and have not beaten Frome in three meetings.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have averaged 1.4 goals scored per match in their last five, and two of their three head-to-heads have produced at least four goals.
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More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Falmouth Town vs Frome Town Prediction
This FA Cup tie brings together two sides from adjacent rungs of the non-league pyramid, both with recent mixed form but a clear statistical edge for the visitors. Frome Town’s defensive record—three clean sheets in their last five and only 0.6 goals conceded per game—contrasts with Falmouth’s patchier output, with the hosts blanking twice in their last five and shipping 1.8 per match. The underlying rates point to a contest where Frome’s slightly superior attacking and defensive efficiency, coupled with a dominant head-to-head record, tips the balance their way.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Frome Town are unbeaten in three head-to-head meetings, winning two and drawing one, including a 6-2 away win.
Defence
- →Frome Town have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding only 0.6 goals per game.
- →Falmouth Town have failed to score in two of their last five and have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match.
How Falmouth Town and Frome Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Falmouth Town vs Frome Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Falmouth Townlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Frome Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Falmouth Town have alternated wins and losses in their last five matches, conceding 1.8 goals per game and failing to score twice. Frome Town’s recent form is steadier defensively, with three clean sheets and only 0.6 goals conceded per match, despite two straight losses to end their last five.
Falmouth Town vs Frome Town — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Falmouth Town vs Frome Town
Frome Town have the clear upper hand in this fixture, unbeaten in three meetings with Falmouth Town, including a 6-2 away FA Cup win and a 2-0 win at home. The most recent encounter ended goalless, but the overall trend favours the visitors.
Falmouth Town vs Frome Town Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
0
Falmouth Town wins
1
Draws
2
Frome Town wins
Things to Watch: Falmouth Town vs Frome Town
- ⚠️No current season data for either side; all rates are based on last five matches and historic H2H.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Lack of detailed shot, possession, and set-piece data limits model granularity.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Falmouth Town 1–2 Frome TownThe numbers lean towards a 2-1 away win for Frome Town, underpinned by their recent defensive record—just 0.6 goals conceded per match and three clean sheets in five. The main risk to this projection is the lack of current season data, which could mask changes in squad strength or tactical setup since April.
Falmouth Town vs Frome Town: Common Questions
Who will win Falmouth Town vs Frome Town?
Frome Town are favoured by the model, with a 46% probability to win compared to Falmouth Town’s 23%. The visitors’ recent defensive record and unbeaten run in the last three head-to-heads support this edge.
Will both teams score in Falmouth Town vs Frome Town?
The probability for both teams to score is close to even, at 48%. Falmouth have failed to score in two of their last five, while Frome have kept three clean sheets, so a 'No' outcome is slightly more likely.
How many goals are expected in Falmouth Town vs Frome Town?
The model gives a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, based on both sides averaging 1.4 goals scored per game in their last five and a history of high-scoring head-to-heads.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Falmouth Town vs Frome Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.