Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare Predictions
National League - South · England
Farnham Town
Full Time
3 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 2
Weston-super-Mare
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Weston-super-Mare Win
Match Result
8.2/10Farnham Town Edge Weston-super-Mare in Five-Goal Thriller at The Memorial Ground
Farnham Town claimed a dramatic 3-2 victory over Weston-super-Mare in a pulsating National League South encounter at The Memorial Ground. The hosts raced into an early lead, with goals in the 6th, 18th, and 35th minutes, seizing control of the contest before Weston-super-Mare could settle. However, the visitors showed resilience, pulling one back in the 16th minute and setting up a tense finale with a late strike in the 89th. Despite neither side registering a single booking, the match was played at a frenetic pace, with both teams trading blows and momentum swinging back and forth. Farnham’s early attacking verve ultimately proved decisive, as they held off a spirited Weston-super-Mare comeback to secure all three points in front of their home supporters.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
6' — Goal
Farnham Town open the scoring, seizing early initiative.
16' — Goal
Weston-super-Mare respond quickly, leveling the contest.
18' — Goal
Farnham Town restore their lead just two minutes later.
35' — Goal
Farnham Town extend their advantage to 3-1 before halftime.
89' — Goal
Weston-super-Mare pull one back late, but Farnham hold on.
Farnham Town
Farnham Town started with real intent, striking early and capitalizing on their attacking opportunities to establish a commanding 3-1 lead by the 35th minute. Their ability to find the net in the opening stages showcased clinical finishing and a well-drilled forward line. While they allowed Weston-super-Mare back into the contest late on, Farnham’s defensive organization and game management in the closing stages ensured they saw out the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare found themselves on the back foot after conceding twice in the opening 20 minutes, but responded admirably with a goal of their own in the 16th minute. Despite falling further behind before halftime, the visitors refused to capitulate, pushing forward in search of a way back and eventually reducing the deficit to one with a late goal in the 89th minute. Their spirited late surge, however, was not enough to salvage a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With lineups and formations undisclosed, Farnham Town’s early flurry of goals suggests a high-pressing, attack-minded approach that overwhelmed Weston-super-Mare in the opening half-hour. The hosts’ ability to strike quickly after conceding indicates tactical flexibility and mental resilience. Weston-super-Mare, meanwhile, appeared to adjust after the break, pushing more bodies forward and applying sustained pressure late on, which culminated in their 89th-minute goal. The absence of cards points to a focus on open, attacking football from both sides, with neither resorting to cynical fouling or disruptive tactics.
Turning Point
Farnham Town’s third goal in the 35th minute, which re-established a two-goal cushion and ultimately proved decisive.
Man of the Match
Farnham Town’s Third Goalscorer (35')
Delivered the crucial goal that gave Farnham breathing room and proved the match-winner.
Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare: Match Preview
Farnham Town come into this match 11th in the National League South, having picked up 13 points from 8 games with a recent upturn in results—three wins and a draw in their last four. Weston-super-Mare, meanwhile, sit 2nd with 17 points from 9 matches, boasting a +9 goal difference and a current two-match winning streak. Both sides have shown resilience, but Weston-super-Mare’s consistency has been more pronounced both home and away.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Weston-super-Mare’s defensive solidity: they concede just 0.78 goals per game and have kept four clean sheets in nine. Farnham Town’s attack is steady at 1.38 goals per game, but their home output (4 goals in 3 matches) is less convincing. Both teams’ matches clear the 2.5 goals line more than half the time, and Farnham have seen both teams score in four of their last five, suggesting a moderate goal environment. With little set-piece or discipline data, the focus remains on open-play rates.
The model expects Weston-super-Mare’s superior defensive record and reliable scoring to be decisive, projecting a 2-1 away win. Farnham Town’s inability to keep clean sheets, combined with Weston-super-Mare’s efficient away record (just two goals conceded in three away games), underpins this forecast. The likeliest deviation comes if Farnham’s recent momentum at home translates into a more robust attacking display.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare that most previews miss.
- 1Weston-super-Mare’s away matches average just 1.67 total goals, contrasting with their overall 2.56 goals per game.
- 2Farnham Town have scored in every one of their last five matches, with both teams scoring in four of those.
- 3Weston-super-Mare’s second halves are more productive, with six of their last eight goals coming after the break.
Who do you think wins: Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Weston-super-Mare Win
Weston-super-Mare have a higher season-long scoring rate (1.78 goals per game) and a stronger defensive record (0.78 conceded per game) than Farnham Town, who are averaging just 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The away side also sit 2nd in the table and have lost only once on their travels.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in more than half of their matches (Farnham 50%, Weston-super-Mare 55.6%), and the combined average goals per game is above 2.5.
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BTTS: Yes
Farnham Town have scored in every one of their last five, and both teams have scored in four of those; Weston-super-Mare have failed to score just once in five, suggesting both sides are likely to contribute.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction
This fixture matches Farnham Town’s average home attack against one of the league’s most efficient defences in Weston-super-Mare, with the away side’s season-long scoring and concession rates giving them the edge. The model expects a competitive contest, with Weston-super-Mare’s ability to limit goals conceded and maintain a steady scoring output on the road tipping the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Weston-super-Mare average 1.78 goals scored and only 0.78 conceded per game across the season.
- →Farnham Town have managed just one clean sheet in their last five matches and concede 1.25 per game.
Match Context
- →Both teams have a season over 2.5 goals rate above 50%.
How Farnham Town and Weston-super-Mare Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Farnham Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Weston-super-Marelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Farnham Town are on a solid run, winning three and drawing one of their last four, and have scored at least once in each of their last five. Weston-super-Mare have also been in strong form, taking 10 points from their last five and conceding just four goals in that span. The away side’s defensive consistency stands out compared to Farnham’s more open contests.
Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare
There is no head-to-head data available for this fixture, so historical trends between these sides cannot be factored in. The analysis is therefore built entirely on current season form and derived rates.
Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Farnham Town wins
0
Draws
0
Weston-super-Mare wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare
With no bookmaker odds available, value edges cannot be calculated for this fixture. The model’s strongest statistical lean is towards the away win, but without odds, no positive expected value can be confirmed.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available for these sides at this level, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Lack of detailed shot and set-piece data reduces confidence in secondary market predictions.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Farnham Town 1–2 Weston-super-MareThe model calls this 2-1 to Weston-super-Mare, anchored by their season-long defensive rate of 0.78 goals conceded per game and a clear edge in goal difference. The main risk is Farnham Town’s recent uptick in scoring and home form, which could see them outperform their season averages.
Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare: Common Questions
Who will win Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare?
The model gives Weston-super-Mare a 43% chance of victory, compared to 25% for Farnham Town and 32% for the draw. This is based on Weston-super-Mare’s higher scoring rate and stronger defensive record across the season.
Will both teams score in Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare?
There is a 57% probability that both teams will score, as Farnham Town have scored in all of their last five matches and Weston-super-Mare have failed to score just once in that span.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 54%, reflecting that both teams’ matches have gone over this line in more than half of their games this season (Farnham 50%, Weston-super-Mare 55.6%).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare Resources
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Weston-super-Mare Predictions
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Farnham Town vs Weston-super-Mare Stats
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National League - South Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results