FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
FC Ingolstadt 04
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Rot-Weiß Essen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Rot-Weiß Essen Win
Match Result
7.2/10Ingolstadt Edge Rot-Weiß Essen in Tight 1-0 Battle at Audi Sportpark
FC Ingolstadt 04 secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Rot-Weiß Essen at the Audi Sportpark, thanks to a crucial goal early in the second half. Despite enjoying less possession (42%) and being outshot 20 to 13, Ingolstadt’s defensive discipline and clinical finishing proved decisive in a match where the visitors were left to rue missed opportunities. Rot-Weiß Essen dominated much of the play, controlling 58% of the ball and registering seven shots on target. However, Ingolstadt’s back line, marshaled by G. Antzoulas and J. Scholz, stood firm, while goalkeeper D. Klein delivered a standout performance to preserve the clean sheet. Essen’s frustration grew as they picked up three yellow cards, unable to break through despite their attacking intent.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
47' — Goal
L. Lokotsch scores the only goal of the match, finishing a swift Ingolstadt attack just after halftime.
55' — Yellow Card
Rot-Weiß Essen pick up their first yellow card as frustration begins to show.
68' — Save
D. Klein makes a crucial save to deny Essen an equalizer.
74' — Yellow Card
Second yellow card for Essen as they push forward aggressively.
82' — Yellow Card
Third yellow card for Essen, highlighting their growing desperation.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Ingolstadt executed a disciplined, counter-attacking game plan, making the most of their opportunities despite limited possession. Their 4-4-2 formation provided defensive solidity, with the midfield working tirelessly to stifle Essen’s creative threats. The decisive goal shortly after halftime gave them something to defend, and they did so with determination, limiting Essen to half-chances and protecting D. Klein’s goal effectively. While Ingolstadt only managed three shots on target from thirteen attempts, their ability to convert pressure into a lead and then manage the game showcased maturity and tactical awareness.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Rot-Weiß Essen
Rot-Weiß Essen will be frustrated with the outcome after dictating the tempo for large spells and generating more attacking opportunities. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate possession and create twenty shots, but profligacy in front of goal and a lack of composure in the final third ultimately cost them. Despite three players entering the referee’s book, Essen maintained their attacking intent but could not find a way past Ingolstadt’s determined defense and inspired goalkeeper. The lack of a clinical edge and some questionable decision-making in the box left their efforts unrewarded.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Ingolstadt lined up in a classic 4-4-2, focusing on defensive shape and quick transitions. Their compact midfield shielded the back four, forcing Essen to play around rather than through them. After taking the lead, Ingolstadt dropped deeper, inviting pressure but remaining organized, while looking to exploit spaces on the break. Essen’s 4-2-3-1 prioritized possession and width, with full-backs pushing high and the attacking trio interchanging positions. However, their inability to penetrate centrally and convert chances ultimately let them down. The game’s tactical story was one of attack versus defense, with Ingolstadt’s discipline prevailing.
Turning Point
L. Lokotsch’s goal in the 47th minute gave Ingolstadt the lead and allowed them to settle into a defensive posture that Essen could not break down.
Man of the Match
D. Klein
Produced a string of vital saves to preserve Ingolstadt’s lead under sustained pressure.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen: Match Preview
FC Ingolstadt 04 enter this fixture in poor form, having lost their last three competitive matches and sitting 14th in the 3. Liga table. Their home record is a concern: no wins from three, with seven goals conceded and only three scored, and a current streak of three straight defeats in all competitions. Rot-Weiß Essen, by contrast, are third in the league with 15 points from eight games, unbeaten in five, and have scored 16 goals—the third-highest tally in the division.
The statistical matchup is lopsided in attack: Essen average 2.0 goals per game and have scored 7 in 4 away matches, while Ingolstadt concede 2.33 per home match and just 1.0 scored per game overall. Essen’s matches are high-event: their last five league games have all seen both teams score, averaging 4.6 goals per match, and they have not kept a clean sheet in that run. Ingolstadt’s last five show a 0.6 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game average, with only one clean sheet. Set-piece data is unremarkable, but Essen’s shot volume (15.4 per game, 5.2 on target in the last five) is notably higher than Ingolstadt’s (9.0 and 2.4).
The model projects a match with above-average goal expectancy, weighted towards the visitors’ attack. Essen’s away defence is leaky (9 conceded in 4), but Ingolstadt’s blunt home attack tempers the BTTS probability. Essen’s edge in shot creation, recent form, and historical H2H success drives a 2-1 away win projection, with a high likelihood of at least three goals.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen that most previews miss.
- 1Rot-Weiß Essen’s last five league matches have all finished with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals.
- 2Ingolstadt have failed to win any of their last six home league matches against Essen (1D, 2L in the last three).
- 3Essen average 15.4 shots and 5.2 shots on target per match over their last five, compared to Ingolstadt’s 9.0 and 2.4.
Who do you think wins: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Rot-Weiß Essen Win
Rot-Weiß Essen average 2 goals per game this season and have lost only once in eight, while Ingolstadt have yet to win at home and concede 2.33 per home match. The model gives Essen a 49% win probability.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in at least half their league matches (Ingolstadt 57%, Essen 50%), and Essen's last five have averaged 4.6 total goals.
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BTTS: Yes
Rot-Weiß Essen have both scored and conceded in all of their last five league games, and Ingolstadt have failed to score in only two of their last five.
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More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction
A fixture shaped by contrasting scoring rates: Rot-Weiß Essen arrive with the division’s third-best attack and a 2.0 goals-per-game average, while Ingolstadt are winless at home and leak goals at a rate of 2.33 per home outing. Recent form amplifies the gap, with Essen unbeaten in five and Ingolstadt on a three-match losing streak. The statistical environment points to a match with above-average goal expectancy and a clear edge for the visitors.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Rot-Weiß Essen average 2.0 goals scored per game this season versus Ingolstadt’s 1.0.
Defence
- →Ingolstadt have not won at home (0W, 1D, 2L), conceding 7 in 3 home matches.
Match Context
- →Essen’s last five league matches have all seen both teams score and average 4.6 total goals.
🚩 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 4.4 for Rot-Weiß Essen, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How FC Ingolstadt 04 and Rot-Weiß Essen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Ingolstadt 04last 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Rot-Weiß Essenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ingolstadt’s momentum is negative, with three straight defeats and only one win in their last five league matches, scoring just three times in that span. Rot-Weiß Essen are unbeaten in five (2W, 3D), averaging 2.8 goals scored per game over that period and showing far greater attacking output.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
Rot-Weiß Essen have won four of the last five meetings with Ingolstadt, including two away victories. Only one of the last eight head-to-heads has ended in an Ingolstadt home win, and recent encounters have been high-scoring, with five of the last eight producing at least three goals.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
2
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins
3
Draws
4
Rot-Weiß Essen wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture at the time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated. The model would look for value on away win and goals markets given Essen’s attacking rates and Ingolstadt’s defensive numbers, but confirmation depends on market prices.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent Ingolstadt results include a friendly; competitive form may be slightly overstated.
- ⚠️Both sides have no reported injuries, but late lineup changes could impact probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 Rot-Weiß EssenThe model calls this 2-1 to Rot-Weiß Essen, with the single strongest data point being Essen’s 2.0 goals per game and unbeaten run against an Ingolstadt side winless at home. The likeliest way this projection fails is if Ingolstadt’s attack outperforms its season rate against Essen’s porous away defence, pushing the match towards a higher-scoring draw.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen: Common Questions
Who will win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen a 49% chance of winning, compared to 20% for Ingolstadt and 31% for the draw. Essen’s superior scoring rate and unbeaten five-match run make them the statistical favourites.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
There’s a 62% probability of both teams scoring, based on Essen’s record of BTTS in all of their last five league games and Ingolstadt’s defensive frailty at home.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 61%, with both teams’ matches trending high-scoring—Essen’s last five league games average 4.6 goals, and Ingolstadt’s season over 2.5 rate is 57%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.