FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
FC Ingolstadt 04
Full Time
2 - 4
AI predicted 1 - 1
SV Wehen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.65(+21% edge)
Match Result
8.2/10Wehen Stun Ingolstadt with Late Surge in Six-Goal Thriller
SV Wehen produced a scintillating late show to claim a dramatic 4-2 away victory over FC Ingolstadt 04 at the Audi Sportpark. The match burst into life after a cagey first half, with all six goals coming in the second period. Wehen struck first in the 59th minute, setting off a frenetic spell that saw both teams trade blows before the visitors pulled away late on. Ingolstadt, despite enjoying 57% possession and racking up 15 shots (five on target), struggled to contain Wehen's incisive counter-attacks. The hosts twice clawed their way back into contention, only for Wehen to punish defensive lapses, sealing the win with a decisive goal in the 88th minute. The result is a testament to Wehen's clinical finishing and resilience under pressure, as they outshot Ingolstadt on target (seven to five) and edged a pulsating contest.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 4
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
59' — Goal
Wehen break the deadlock with a swift counter-attack, taking a 1-0 lead.
71' — Goal
Wehen double their advantage, capitalizing on Ingolstadt's defensive lapse.
72' — Goal
Ingolstadt respond instantly, pulling a goal back to make it 2-1.
82' — Goal
Ingolstadt equalize, setting up a tense finale at 2-2.
88' — Goal
Wehen retake the lead with a clinical finish, sealing the points.
Multiple' — Yellow Cards
Ingolstadt pick up four yellows as frustration mounts in the second half.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Ingolstadt started brightly, dictating the tempo with their 4-5-1 formation and enjoying the lion's share of possession. Their midfield worked hard to create openings, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. Despite mounting pressure and winning nine corners, Ingolstadt were repeatedly caught out by Wehen's swift transitions and clinical finishing. The hosts showed character to respond after falling behind, scoring twice in the final 20 minutes. However, defensive frailties and a lack of composure at the back, compounded by four yellow cards, ultimately undid their efforts. Ingolstadt's attacking intent was clear, but their inability to convert dominance into goals left them empty-handed.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
SV Wehen
SV Wehen delivered a masterclass in counter-attacking football, soaking up pressure and striking with ruthless efficiency. Their 4-4-2 setup allowed them to defend compactly and break quickly, as evidenced by seven shots on target from just ten attempts. Wehen's ability to capitalize on Ingolstadt's defensive errors proved decisive, with three of their four goals coming in the final 30 minutes. Disciplined at the back and clinical up front, Wehen weathered Ingolstadt's spells of dominance and responded with composure. Their late goals, including the 88th-minute clincher, highlighted their resilience and tactical intelligence. Only one yellow card across the team reflected their controlled aggression and focus throughout a heated contest.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Ingolstadt's 4-5-1 formation was designed to control the midfield and dictate the tempo, and for large spells, they succeeded in pinning Wehen back. Their wide play and set-piece threat yielded nine corners, but a lack of penetration in the box was evident. The hosts' high defensive line left them exposed to Wehen's rapid transitions. Wehen, lining up in a compact 4-4-2, focused on defensive solidity and quick, direct attacks. Their twin strikers exploited spaces behind Ingolstadt's back line, and the midfield four worked tirelessly to disrupt Ingolstadt's rhythm. Tactical discipline and timely substitutions helped Wehen absorb pressure and strike decisively when opportunities arose.
Turning Point
Wehen's third goal in the 88th minute, coming just after Ingolstadt had equalized, shattered the hosts' momentum and sealed the victory for the visitors.
Man of the Match
M. Müller
Instrumental in Wehen's attack, involved in crucial goals and a constant threat on the counter.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen: Match Preview
FC Ingolstadt 04 come into this fixture on the back of three consecutive league defeats, sitting 14th with eight points from seven matches and a negative goal difference. Their home form is a concern, with no wins and just three goals scored in three attempts at Audi Sportpark. SV Wehen, meanwhile, are in the relegation zone at 19th, having managed only one win all season and conceding nearly two goals per game. Both sides need a result to arrest their slide but have shown little attacking conviction in recent weeks.
The statistical matchup is defined by low attacking output and soft defences. Ingolstadt average 1.0 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game, while Wehen's numbers are even weaker at 0.71 for and 1.86 against. Shot volumes are modest for both, with neither side averaging above four shots on target per match over the last five. First-half goals are rare—just five combined in the last five matches for both teams—suggesting a slow start. Set-piece threat is muted, with both sides averaging under 2.5 corners per game recently, and discipline is middling, with just under two cards per side per match.
Given these underlying rates, the model projects a low-scoring encounter, with the draw the most likely result. While H2H history shows some high-scoring matches, recent form and current season averages point to a 1-1 or 1-0 either way. The most plausible deviation is a defensive lapse leading to a second-half winner, but neither attack inspires confidence to dominate.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen that most previews miss.
- 1Ingolstadt have scored just three goals in three home matches, conceding seven, for an average of 3.33 total goals per home game.
- 2Wehen have failed to score in three of their seven league matches, and their away games average just 2.67 goals.
- 3The last three H2H meetings at Ingolstadt have produced two away wins for Wehen and one goalless draw.
Who do you think wins: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.65
The model assigns a 33% probability to the draw, well above the 27.4% implied by current odds, with both teams averaging just over a goal per game and struggling for attacking consistency.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.37
Season-long rates for both sides (Ingolstadt 57% over 2.5, Wehen 43%) and low shot/goal conversion point to a median goal expectation close to 2, offering value on the under.
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BTTS: No@ 2.42
Both teams have failed to score in 3 of their last 10 combined matches, and neither averages more than 1 goal per game on the season, making BTTS 'no' a marginal value.
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More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Prediction
Statistically, this fixture profiles as a low-to-mid scoring contest between two sides with blunt attacks and defensive vulnerabilities, but little to separate them in overall quality. Ingolstadt's home record is poor (0W 1D 2L), while Wehen's away numbers are only marginally better. The most likely outcome is a draw, with both teams likely to struggle for clear chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Ingolstadt score just 1.0 goals per game and concede 1.57, with a home record of 3 for and 7 against in three matches.
- →Wehen average 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game, with only 3 goals in 3 away matches.
- →Neither side has a clean sheet rate above 29%, and both have failed to score in multiple recent outings.
🚩 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 5.2 for SV Wehen, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Wehen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Ingolstadt 04last 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SV Wehenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ingolstadt have lost three straight league matches and have not won at home this season, managing just three goals in those games. Wehen's form is similarly poor, with one win in seven and a -8 goal difference, though they did manage a 2-0 away win at Fortuna Köln recently. Both teams are trending downward, with neither attack showing consistency.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen — Last 8 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
The head-to-head record is narrowly in Wehen's favour, with four wins to Ingolstadt's three in the last eight meetings. Notably, Wehen have twice won away at Ingolstadt in recent years, but the most recent fixture at this venue ended goalless. H2H matches have often been open, but recent form suggests a tighter contest.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
3
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins
1
Draws
5
SV Wehen wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
The biggest model/market divergence is on the draw, where the model's 33% probability outpaces the 27% implied by odds of 3.65. Unders and BTTS 'no' also show marginal value, reflecting the low scoring rates and the lack of attacking threat from both sides. Backing the draw or a low goal count is supported by the underlying numbers.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
- ⚠️Small sample size for recent matches and some missing shot data may understate volatility.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown streaky form and are capable of anomalous results, as seen in H2H history.
- ⚠️Lineups and tactical changes could shift the goal environment, especially if either side alters their defensive shape.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 SV WehenThe model's final call is a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' season-long scoring rates (Ingolstadt 1.0, Wehen 0.71 per game) and their inability to turn possession into clear chances. The biggest risk to this projection is a defensive error or red card tipping the balance, but on underlying numbers, neither side deserves clear favouritism.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen: Common Questions
Who will win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen?
The model gives Ingolstadt a 38% chance to win, the draw a 33% probability, and Wehen a 29% chance. With both sides struggling for goals and form, the draw is the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%, with both sides averaging around one goal per game and each keeping just one clean sheet in their last five matches.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen?
The probability for under 2.5 goals is 49%, compared to odds-implied 42%, suggesting a slight value edge on the under given both teams' low attacking output and recent match patterns.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.