Flamengo vs Fluminense Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Flamengo
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Fluminense
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Flamengo Win
Match Result
7.2/10Pedro Fires Flamengo Past Fluminense in Tense Maracanã Derby
Flamengo edged Fluminense 1-0 in a fiercely contested Rio de Janeiro derby at the Maracanã, thanks to a decisive second-half strike from Pedro. In a match marked by intensity and discipline, both sides created chances, but it was Flamengo's clinical edge that ultimately separated the rivals. Fluminense controlled possession with 57% and looked to dictate the tempo, but struggled to break down a well-organized Flamengo defense. The hosts, meanwhile, were more direct, registering 17 shots (6 on target) and capitalizing on their best opportunity in the 65th minute when Pedro found the net. Despite a flurry of late pressure and four yellow cards, Fluminense could not find a way past A. Rossi, ensuring Flamengo claimed all three points.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
65' — Goal
Pedro scores for Flamengo, finishing a swift attacking move to break the deadlock.
73' — Yellow Card
Fluminense's frustration mounts as a fourth player enters the referee's book.
80' — Substitution
Fluminense makes attacking changes in search of an equalizer.
88' — Yellow Card
Flamengo pick up a late booking as they defend their narrow lead.
Flamengo
Flamengo delivered a disciplined and efficient performance, soaking up pressure and striking when it mattered most. Despite conceding possession, they were more incisive in attack, generating 17 shots and showing defensive resilience, particularly after taking the lead. The midfield duo of E. Pulgar and Saúl provided solidity, while Pedro's clinical finish proved decisive.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Fluminense
Fluminense dominated the ball and attempted to control the match, but lacked the cutting edge in the final third. Their 57% possession and 12 shots (4 on target) reflected a patient build-up, yet they struggled to convert pressure into clear chances. Defensively solid for much of the game, lapses in concentration proved costly, and frustration was evident with four players booked.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Flamengo were content to cede possession and focus on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their double pivot shielded the back four effectively, while the attacking midfield trio supported Pedro with direct runs. Fluminense, on the other hand, looked to dominate the ball and patiently probe for openings, but their lack of width and penetration limited their threat. Substitutions in the second half saw Fluminense push more men forward, but Flamengo’s compact shape and disciplined pressing stifled their efforts. Set pieces offered little for either side, with only six corners in total.
Turning Point
Pedro's goal in the 65th minute shifted the momentum irreversibly in Flamengo's favor, forcing Fluminense to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Pedro
Delivered the decisive goal and led the line with intelligence and composure throughout.
Flamengo vs Fluminense: Match Preview
Flamengo approach this derby at the Maracanã as league leaders, riding a five-match unbeaten run and boasting the division's best home record: 10 wins and just a single defeat from 14 home fixtures. Their 60 points from 28 matches put them in pole position, while Fluminense sit fourth, 12 points back, but have steadied after a mixed run with two wins in their last three league games. Both sides come in with confidence, each averaging 1.6 goals per game over their last five matches and neither failing to score in that stretch.
The statistical matchup is defined by Flamengo's defensive efficiency against Fluminense's more open approach. Flamengo concede just 0.82 goals per game (season), with a 43% clean sheet rate, while Fluminense's away defence is leakier: 22 conceded in 14 away games (1.57 per match) and only 18% clean sheets. Offensively, both sides are productive—Flamengo average 1.96 goals per game, Fluminense 1.57—but the hosts' shot volume (15.6 per match last five) and set-piece threat (7.8 corners per game) are notably higher. Cards are likely, with both averaging over 2.5 bookings per match recently.
The model expects Flamengo's home advantage and defensive solidity to edge a contest where both teams have the firepower to score. Goal expectation is above average (58% over 2.5), with Flamengo favoured for the win (54%) but Fluminense's attack likely to keep it close. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, shaped by Flamengo's superior home rates and Fluminense's tendency to concede away.
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Flamengo vs Fluminense Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Flamengo vs Fluminense that most previews miss.
- 1Flamengo's home matches average 2.71 total goals, with 61% seeing over 2.5.
- 2Fluminense have scored in 12 of 14 away games but kept just 2 clean sheets on the road (14%).
- 3Across the last 10 H2H meetings, the away side has won 4 times—an unusually high rate for a derby.
Who do you think wins: Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Flamengo vs Fluminense(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Flamengo Win
Flamengo's home record (10 wins, 1 loss in 14) and season-long defensive rate (0.82 conceded per game) underpin a 54% model win probability, well above Fluminense's 19% away win chance.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average over 1.5 goals scored per game and have 54-61% over 2.5 rates on the season; the model projects a 58% chance of three or more goals.
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BTTS: Yes
Fluminense have failed to score in just 2 of 14 away games, and both sides have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches; BTTS modelled at 56%.
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Flamengo vs Fluminense Prediction
Statistically, this is a high-level clash between the league's top side and a strong but less consistent Fluminense, with the rates pointing to a moderately high-scoring contest. Flamengo's defensive numbers and home dominance set the baseline, but Fluminense's attack is potent enough to find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average 1.5+ goals scored per game and have over 53% over 2.5 goal rates.
Defence
- →Flamengo's home record: 10 wins, 1 loss, 28 scored, 10 conceded in 14.
- →Fluminense away: 3 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses, 20 scored, 22 conceded.
🚩 Flamengo vs Fluminense Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.6 corners for Flamengo and 2.9 for Fluminense, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Flamengo and Fluminense Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Flamengo vs Fluminense Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Flamengolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fluminenselast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Flamengo have taken 13 points from their last five in all competitions, including three straight league wins and no failures to score. Fluminense, while less consistent, have also found the net in every one of their last five and come off a strong 3-1 away win at Corinthians. Both sides have momentum in attack, but Flamengo's overall trajectory is steadier.
Flamengo vs Fluminense — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Flamengo vs Fluminense
The last 10 derbies have been finely balanced, with Flamengo holding a slight edge (4 wins to 3, 3 draws), but away wins have been surprisingly common—Flamengo won 2-1 at Fluminense earlier this season. Clean sheets are rare, with both sides usually finding the net.
Flamengo vs Fluminense Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Flamengo wins
3
Draws
3
Fluminense wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Flamengo vs Fluminense
With no bookmaker odds provided, value cannot be quantified directly. However, the model's 54% home win probability suggests Flamengo should be clear favourites, and the over 2.5 goals and BTTS probabilities are both above market averages for typical Serie A fixtures. Any odds implying less than a 50% chance for Flamengo or under 1.80 for over 2.5 goals would represent theoretical value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Flamengo vs Fluminense
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Lineups are unconfirmed; late injuries or rotations could affect attacking output.
- ⚠️Recent H2H has seen away wins, which could challenge the home edge.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Flamengo 2–1 FluminenseFlamengo are projected to win 2-1, driven by their league-leading home record (10 wins, 28:10 goal difference at home) and defensive consistency. The single strongest data point is Fluminense's away defensive rate—22 conceded in 14—which makes a clean sheet unlikely. The main risk is the derby's history of away wins and the visitors' ability to score in nearly every away outing.
Flamengo vs Fluminense: Common Questions
Who will win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Flamengo are modelled as 54% likely to win, with Fluminense given a 19% chance and a 27% probability of a draw. The home side's defensive record and goal difference at the Maracanã are decisive factors.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
The model projects a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals, based on both teams' season averages (Flamengo 1.96 scored, Fluminense 1.57) and over 53% of their matches this season clearing the 2.5 line.
Are both teams likely to score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Both teams have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches, and Fluminense have failed to score in only 2 of 14 away games; the model gives a 56% probability for both teams to score.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Flamengo vs Fluminense: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.