Fredrikstad vs Brann Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Fredrikstad
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Brann
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
8.2/10Late Brann Rally Denies Fredrikstad in Four-Goal Thriller
Fredrikstad and Brann played out a pulsating 2-2 draw at Fredrikstad Stadion, with the hosts squandering a two-goal lead in the final ten minutes. The home side looked set for victory after second-half strikes from G. Wesseh and H. Skogvold, but Brann showed remarkable resilience to snatch a point thanks to late goals in the 82nd and 90th minutes. Fredrikstad's high-energy 3-4-3 system caused Brann problems throughout, as they racked up 20 shots and pressed aggressively. However, Brann's superior possession (54%) and nine corners kept them in the contest, and their persistence paid off as they capitalized on late opportunities to salvage a dramatic draw. Both sides matched each other with seven shots on target, underlining the evenness of this entertaining encounter.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
52' — Goal
G. Wesseh puts Fredrikstad ahead after sustained pressure early in the second half.
60' — Goal
H. Skogvold doubles Fredrikstad's lead, seemingly putting the hosts in control.
82' — Goal
N. Holm pulls one back for Brann, setting up a tense finale.
90' — Goal
N. Castro completes Brann's comeback with a dramatic late equalizer.
Various' — Yellow Cards
A total of six yellow cards (2 Fredrikstad, 4 Brann) as tempers flared in a competitive contest.
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad produced a vibrant attacking display, particularly in the second half, where they seized control with two well-taken goals. Their front three, supported by energetic wing play, created numerous chances and forced Brann onto the back foot. However, lapses in concentration and defensive organization in the closing stages allowed Brann to claw their way back into the match. Despite conceding late, Fredrikstad's ability to generate 20 shots and maintain a high tempo for much of the game was impressive. The lack of composure and control in the dying minutes, however, cost them what would have been a statement win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Brann
Brann showed impressive character to recover from a two-goal deficit away from home. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed them to control possession (54%) and exert sustained pressure, especially through set pieces, as evidenced by their nine corners. Although they struggled to convert their dominance into clear chances for much of the match, their persistence was rewarded with two late goals. Brann's midfield trio worked tirelessly to regain control after falling behind, and their attacking substitutions paid dividends as they pushed Fredrikstad deeper in the final stages. The four yellow cards reflect their aggressive approach, but ultimately their resilience earned them a valuable point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Fredrikstad's 3-4-3 formation allowed them to press high and attack with width, particularly through their wing-backs and mobile front three. Their willingness to commit numbers forward resulted in a high shot count, but left them exposed in transition late on. Brann's 4-3-3 system prioritized ball retention and overloads in midfield, which eventually wore down the Fredrikstad press as the match progressed. Brann's use of set pieces and corners was a constant threat, and their late tactical switches, including attacking substitutions, tilted the momentum in their favor during the closing stages. Both teams showed flexibility, with Fredrikstad dropping deeper to protect their lead and Brann pushing full-backs higher as they chased the game. The match was a showcase of contrasting approaches: Fredrikstad's directness versus Brann's patient buildup.
Turning Point
N. Holm's goal in the 82nd minute shifted the momentum decisively, giving Brann belief and setting the stage for their late equalizer.
Man of the Match
N. Castro
Scored the dramatic 90th-minute equalizer and was a constant attacking threat throughout.
Fredrikstad vs Brann: Match Preview
Fredrikstad and Brann meet with both sides locked on 29 points in mid-table, but their recent trajectories diverge. Fredrikstad are on a three-match league losing streak, conceding 11 goals in their last four, while Brann, though inconsistent, have scored at least twice in four of their last five in all competitions. With little at stake in the standings, both may approach this fixture with attacking intent.
The statistical shape of the contest points to goals. Brann's away games average 3.67 total goals (22 for, 22 against in 12), and their last five matches see them averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Fredrikstad's defensive record is poor, conceding 1.76 per match this season and failing to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Both teams are regulars in high-scoring games: over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of Fredrikstad's matches, 79% of Brann's. Corners should also be plentiful, with Brann averaging 7.4 per game in recent outings.
Given these rates, the model expects Brann's superior attacking metrics and Fredrikstad's defensive struggles to be decisive. The likeliest scenario is an open game with both teams scoring, but Brann's greater shot output and recent form tip the balance their way. A 2-1 away win is the most probable outcome, with early goals likely as both sides have shown a tendency to start quickly.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS: Yes
63%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fredrikstad vs Brann Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fredrikstad vs Brann that most previews miss.
- 1Brann's away matches have produced over 2.5 goals in 79% of cases this season.
- 2Fredrikstad have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league games, conceding 2.8 per match in that span.
- 3Four of the last five H2H meetings have featured at least three goals.
Who do you think wins: Fredrikstad vs Brann?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fredrikstad vs Brann(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides are above league average for over 2.5 goals (Fredrikstad 56%, Brann 79%), and their combined season goals per game (Fredrikstad 1.16 scored, 1.76 conceded; Brann 1.75 scored, 1.67 conceded) point to a high goal environment.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Brann Win
Brann's away attack (1.83 goals per away game) is a tier above Fredrikstad's home scoring rate (1.17), and Fredrikstad have lost three straight in the league, conceding 11 in their last four.
Read more ↓
More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Fredrikstad vs Brann Prediction
This fixture matches two mid-table sides with identical points tallies but divergent goal profiles. Fredrikstad arrive on a three-match league losing streak, conceding heavily (11 goals in their last four), while Brann, despite recent away defeats, have scored at least twice in four of their last five across all competitions. Both teams have little to play for in terms of league position, which could open up the contest. Statistically, the game profiles as high-scoring: Fredrikstad's matches go over 2.5 goals 56% of the time, Brann's a league-high 79%. Brann's away games average 1.83 goals for and 1.83 against per match, while Fredrikstad's home defence is porous (1.25 conceded per home game). Both sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and Brann's shot volume (15.4 per game, 5.6 on target) is among the division's best. Corners are also above average, with Brann averaging 7.4 per game in their last five. The model expects Brann's superior attacking output and Fredrikstad's defensive frailty to tilt the balance. With both teams regularly involved in open games and neither keeping clean sheets (both under 13% clean sheet rate), a 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome. Early goals are probable, with 58% of first goals in these teams' recent matches arriving before the 30th minute.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Fredrikstad have conceded 11 goals in their last four league matches.
- →Both teams have a clean sheet rate below 13% this season.
Match Context
- →Brann's away matches average 3.67 total goals (22 for, 22 against in 12 games).
🚩 Fredrikstad vs Brann Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Fredrikstad and 5.8 for Brann, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 57%.
How Fredrikstad and Brann Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fredrikstad vs Brann Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fredrikstadlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Brannlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Fredrikstad enter on a poor run, losing their last three league matches and conceding 11 goals in their last four. Brann's recent form is mixed but more positive, with three wins in their last five across all competitions and a consistent attacking output (2.2 goals per game in that stretch).
Fredrikstad vs Brann — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 79.17% of games this season
What History Says: Fredrikstad vs Brann
Brann have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last eight meetings, including a 4-0 away win in 2024. Only one of the last eight has ended level, and most have been high-scoring affairs, with five producing at least three goals.
Fredrikstad vs Brann Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
2
Fredrikstad wins
0
Draws
6
Brann wins
Things to Watch: Fredrikstad vs Brann
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations are not possible.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is volatile, with high-scoring wins and heavy defeats.
- ⚠️Neither side has a clear motivational edge with both on 29 points and mid-table.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fredrikstad 1–2 BrannThe model calls this 2-1 to Brann, anchored by the away side's league-high over 2.5 goal rate (79%) and Fredrikstad's recent defensive collapse. The main risk is volatility from two inconsistent teams with little to play for, which could swing the match in either direction if early chances are missed or converted.
Fredrikstad vs Brann: Common Questions
Who will win Fredrikstad vs Brann?
Brann are favoured with a 46% win probability, compared to 26% for Fredrikstad and 28% for the draw. This is driven by Brann's stronger attack (1.75 goals per game) and Fredrikstad's recent defensive frailty.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fredrikstad vs Brann?
There's a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals, with both teams regularly involved in high-scoring matches (Brann over 2.5 in 79% of games, Fredrikstad 56%).
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Brann?
The BTTS (both teams to score) probability is 60%. Both sides have scored and conceded in four of their last five matches, and neither keeps clean sheets (under 13% clean sheet rate for both).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fredrikstad vs Brann: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.