Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Ham-Kam
Full Time
3 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
Match Result
7.8/10Late Surge Seals 3-0 Win for Ham-Kam Over Ten-Man Sarpsborg 08
Ham-Kam produced a dramatic late show to secure a resounding 3-0 victory over Sarpsborg 08 at Briskeby, with all three goals coming in the final 15 minutes. The hosts dominated possession (58%) and peppered the Sarpsborg goal with 21 shots, eventually breaking through against a side reduced to ten men by a second-half red card. After a tense, goalless opening 75 minutes, Ham-Kam finally found the breakthrough in the 76th minute and never looked back. Sarpsborg 08, who had struggled to assert themselves with only 42% possession and three yellow cards before going down to ten, were unable to recover as Ham-Kam ruthlessly exploited their numerical advantage, adding two more goals in the dying moments to seal a comprehensive win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
3 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
76' — Goal
David Benjamin finally breaks the deadlock for Ham-Kam with a well-taken finish.
86' — Goal
Ham-Kam double their lead, capitalizing on Sarpsborg’s fatigue and numerical disadvantage.
90' — Goal
A third goal in stoppage time puts the result beyond doubt.
Second Half' — Red Card
Sarpsborg 08 reduced to ten men, swinging momentum decisively in Ham-Kam’s favor.
Throughout' — Yellow Cards
Sarpsborg 08 accumulate three yellow cards, reflecting mounting pressure.
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam displayed patience and control throughout, dictating play with their 5-3-2 formation and dominating possession. Despite some frustration in the final third for much of the match, their persistence paid off as they capitalized on Sarpsborg’s fatigue and numerical disadvantage late on. The hosts fired 21 shots (6 on target), forced 8 corners, and kept their discipline with just one yellow card. The late flurry of goals was a testament to their superior fitness and tactical discipline, as well as their ability to seize the initiative when it mattered most.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 began with a compact 4-4-2 and looked to frustrate the hosts, but struggled to maintain possession and create clear-cut chances, managing just 13 shots (4 on target) and 5 corners. Their defensive effort was undermined by indiscipline, collecting three yellow cards before being reduced to ten men in the second half. Once down a player, Sarpsborg’s resistance crumbled, conceding three times in the final quarter-hour as they failed to cope with Ham-Kam’s relentless pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Ham-Kam’s 5-3-2 formation allowed them to control midfield and stretch Sarpsborg’s lines, with wing-backs providing width and the midfield trio dictating play. Their patient buildup and frequent use of the flanks eventually wore down the visitors. The introduction of fresh legs and a shift to a more attacking posture after Sarpsborg’s red card proved decisive, as Ham-Kam overloaded the final third and created high-quality chances late on. Sarpsborg’s 4-4-2 was initially compact and disciplined, but their inability to maintain possession led to mounting pressure. The red card forced them into a reactive, defensive shell, which Ham-Kam exploited ruthlessly through quick ball circulation and late runs into the box.
Turning Point
The red card to Sarpsborg 08 in the second half, which opened the floodgates for Ham-Kam’s late scoring spree.
Man of the Match
David Benjamin
Scored the crucial opening goal and set the tone for Ham-Kam’s late dominance.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: Match Preview
Ham-Kam enter this match in 13th place, just above the relegation zone, and their recent form reflects their precarious position: three defeats in their last four league games, including back-to-back home losses to Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt without scoring. Sarpsborg 08 FF, currently 7th, have found momentum with three wins from their last four league fixtures and a cup victory over Valerenga, pushing them into the top half and away from relegation worries.
Statistically, this is a meeting of two of the league's leakiest defences, but Sarpsborg 08 FF's away attack has been more productive (16 goals in 12 away matches) than Ham-Kam's home output (17 in 12). Ham-Kam's home games average 3.42 goals, driven by their poor defensive record (24 conceded), while Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches are slightly lower-scoring but still see over 2.5 goals in 58% of cases. Both sides are more dangerous after the interval: Sarpsborg 08 FF have scored eight second-half goals in their last five, while Ham-Kam have conceded five in the same period. Set pieces could also play a role, with Sarpsborg 08 FF averaging 6.6 corners per game recently.
Given these numbers, the model expects Sarpsborg 08 FF to capitalise on Ham-Kam's defensive frailty, especially in the second half. The most likely scenario is an open contest with both sides creating chances but Sarpsborg 08 FF's superior shot volume and recent form tipping the balance in their favour. A 2-1 away win is the statistical baseline, though Ham-Kam's erratic attack could spring a surprise if Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence falters.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF that most previews miss.
- 1Ham-Kam have kept just 2 clean sheets in 12 home games this season (16.7%).
- 2Sarpsborg 08 FF have scored eight second-half goals in their last five matches, more than double their first-half output.
- 3The last three league meetings between these sides have all gone over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won six of the last ten head-to-heads and arrive with a stronger away record (16 goals scored, 19 conceded in 12 away games) than Ham-Kam's home defensive numbers (24 conceded in 12), while Ham-Kam's overall season goal difference is -18.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Ham-Kam matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season, and both teams average above 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, suggesting a high-scoring environment.
Read more ↓
More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction
This fixture matches a struggling Ham-Kam side with the league's second-worst defensive record (51 conceded in 24) against a Sarpsborg 08 FF team whose away attack has produced 16 goals in 12 outings. Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent form is notably stronger, with three wins in their last four league matches and a positive goal difference over that stretch, while Ham-Kam have lost three of their last four league games and failed to score in their last two at home. Ham-Kam's home matches are characterised by defensive frailty: they concede an average of 2.0 goals per home game, and their clean sheet rate is just 16.7%. Sarpsborg 08 FF's away defence is not watertight (1.58 conceded per away game), but their shot volume (12.4 per game last 5) and set-piece threat (6.6 corners per game) suggest they can exploit Ham-Kam's vulnerabilities. Both sides show a tendency for second-half goals, with Sarpsborg 08 FF netting eight after the break in their last five, while Ham-Kam have conceded five second-half goals in the same period. The model expects Sarpsborg 08 FF's more balanced attack and superior recent form to edge a match likely to see multiple goals. With both teams averaging over 2.5 goals per game combined and a strong H2H trend towards Sarpsborg 08 FF wins, a 2-1 away victory is the likeliest outcome, though Ham-Kam's sporadic attacking output could see them on the scoresheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Ham-Kam have conceded 24 goals in 12 home games (2.0 per game).
Match Context
- →Sarpsborg 08 FF have won six of the last ten head-to-heads, including the last three competitive meetings.
- →Ham-Kam matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 75% of league games this season.
🚩 Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Ham-Kam and 8 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, for an expected total of 12.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (81%). Over 8.5: 88% · Over 10.5: 72%.
How Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Ham-Kamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sarpsborg 08 FFlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ham-Kam have lost three of their last four league matches and failed to score in their last two at home, underlining their current struggles. Sarpsborg 08 FF, by contrast, have won three of their last four in the league and added a cup win, with their attack averaging 2.2 goals per game across the last five outings.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 76.92% of games this season
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won six of the last ten meetings with Ham-Kam, including the last three competitive encounters. Ham-Kam have only managed one win in this period, and the last three league matches between the sides have all featured at least three goals.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Ham-Kam wins
2
Draws
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
With no bookmaker odds available, it's not possible to quantify value edges for this fixture. The model's strongest probabilities are for an away win (45%) and over 2.5 goals (62%), both of which would be value candidates if market prices were available.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive records are poor, increasing variance in likely scorelines.
- ⚠️Recent lineups and injuries are unknown; late team news could affect probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ham-Kam 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF's superior away attack and dominance in recent head-to-heads make them the statistical favourite, with a 2-1 away win the most probable outcome. The strongest data point is Ham-Kam's 2.13 goals conceded per game this season, which aligns with Sarpsborg 08 FF's ability to score on the road. The main risk is the volatility of both defences—if either side sharpens up at the back or fails to convert chances, the match could swing towards a low-scoring draw.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: Common Questions
Who will win Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 45% chance of victory, compared to 23% for Ham-Kam and 32% for the draw. Sarpsborg 08 FF have won six of the last ten meetings and arrive in better form.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
There's a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals, supported by Ham-Kam's 75% season rate for high-scoring games and both teams' leaky defences.
Are both teams likely to score in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Both teams to score is rated at 58%, as Ham-Kam have failed to score in two of their last five but Sarpsborg 08 FF's away defence concedes 1.58 per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.