Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Ham-Kam
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Sarpsborg 08 Edge Past Ham-Kam in Gritty Home Win
Sarpsborg 08 FF secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Ham-Kam at Sarpsborg Stadion, making the most of their limited possession to claim all three points. Despite Ham-Kam dominating the ball with 62% possession, it was the hosts who found the breakthrough in the 29th minute, and then resolutely defended their lead for the remainder of the contest. The match was a tale of contrasting styles: Sarpsborg 08 were clinical and direct, while Ham-Kam controlled the tempo but struggled to convert their dominance into genuine chances, registering just one shot on target. Both teams finished with three yellow cards apiece in a physical encounter, but Sarpsborg's defensive organization and willingness to battle proved decisive.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
29' — Goal
Daniel Karlsbakk scores the only goal of the match to put Sarpsborg 08 ahead.
38' — Yellow Card
Sondre Sörli (Sarpsborg 08) booked for a tactical foul.
54' — Yellow Card
Anton Ekeroth (Ham-Kam) shown a yellow for dissent.
67' — Yellow Card
Bjorn Utvik (Sarpsborg 08) cautioned after a late challenge.
72' — Yellow Card
Fredrik Sjolstad (Ham-Kam) picks up a booking as Ham-Kam push for an equalizer.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF executed a disciplined game plan, absorbing pressure and striking when the opportunity arose. Their 4-4-2 formation allowed them to remain compact, and despite only having 38% possession, they managed 13 shots, four of which tested the Ham-Kam goalkeeper. The hosts' defensive unit, marshaled by Bjorn Utvik and Magnar Odegaard, stood firm under sustained pressure, while the midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Ham-Kam's rhythm. The decisive goal in the 29th minute set the tone, and from then on Sarpsborg 08 focused on protecting their advantage, showing grit and determination in the face of Ham-Kam's attempts to break them down.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam controlled the match for long spells, boasting 62% possession and dictating the tempo from their 5-3-2 setup. However, their attacking play lacked penetration, as they managed only one shot on target from ten attempts. The midfield trio of Markus Johnsgard, Luc Mares, and Aksel Baran Potur circulated the ball well but struggled to break through Sarpsborg's disciplined lines. Despite a solid defensive showing and a composed performance from goalkeeper Marcus Sandberg, Ham-Kam's inability to create clear-cut chances ultimately cost them, leaving them frustrated despite their territorial dominance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 lined up in a traditional 4-4-2, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their two banks of four remained compact, limiting space between the lines and forcing Ham-Kam to play in front of them. The forwards pressed selectively, while the midfielders worked hard to disrupt Ham-Kam’s passing rhythm. Ham-Kam’s 5-3-2 formation provided width through the wing-backs, but with Sarpsborg defending deep, they found little joy in the final third. Despite their possession, Ham-Kam lacked runners in behind and struggled to create overloads, resulting in a low shot count and few genuine chances. Sarpsborg’s willingness to concede possession but protect their box ultimately proved the superior strategy.
Turning Point
Daniel Karlsbakk’s 29th-minute goal gave Sarpsborg 08 a lead to defend and forced Ham-Kam to chase the game, playing into the hosts' defensive strengths.
Man of the Match
Daniel Karlsbakk
Scored the decisive goal and led the line with energy, providing Sarpsborg 08’s cutting edge.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam: Match Preview
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam arrive level on points in the Eliteserien table, each with 18 points and a negative goal difference. Sarpsborg are unbeaten in their last four league matches (three wins, one draw), including a 1-0 home win over Viking, while Ham-Kam's away form remains a concern with no wins in five league trips, though they have managed three draws. Both sides are mid-table and will view this as a key fixture to push into the top half.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Ham-Kam's high-scoring away games (3.6 goals per match) and Sarpsborg's modest but steady home attack (1.17 goals per home game). Ham-Kam have failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last five, conceding twice or more in four of those, while Sarpsborg's defensive record is only slightly better. Both teams have a strong BTTS trend: Ham-Kam's last five league games have all seen both teams score, and Sarpsborg have managed just two clean sheets in their last five.
The model expects a match with above-average goal expectancy, with Sarpsborg's home advantage and slightly tighter defence giving them a narrow edge. The likeliest scenario is both teams finding the net, but Sarpsborg's ability to edge close matches at home (three wins from six) tips the balance. A 2-1 home win is the most probable outcome, but a high-scoring draw is a realistic alternative.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam that most previews miss.
- 1Ham-Kam's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases (4 out of 5), with an average of 3.6 goals per game.
- 2Sarpsborg have scored exactly two goals in three of their last five home meetings with Ham-Kam.
- 3Both teams have scored in 5 of Ham-Kam's last 5 competitive matches, underlining defensive frailty on both sides.
Who do you think wins: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
The 2-1 scoreline is the statistical mode, supported by Sarpsborg's home scoring rate (1.17 per home game) and Ham-Kam's away concession rate (2.2 per away game), while both teams have a high BTTS rate in recent matches.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Ham-Kam's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 75% of their league games, and Sarpsborg's defensive record (1.23 conceded per game) supports a higher goal expectation.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 8 of Ham-Kam's 12 league games and 3 of Sarpsborg's last 5, with neither side showing consistent defensive solidity.
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More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Prediction
This fixture matches two mid-table sides with nearly identical records and negative goal differences, but the underlying rates point to a higher goal environment than the league average. Sarpsborg 08 FF's home attack is modest but reliable, while Ham-Kam's away defence has leaked over two goals per game. Recent form shows Sarpsborg unbeaten in four league matches, while Ham-Kam have not won away all season but consistently find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Ham-Kam's away games average 3.6 goals per match (7 scored, 11 conceded in 5).
- →Sarpsborg have kept just 23% clean sheets this season, Ham-Kam 25%.
Match Context
- →Both teams are mid-table with 18 points and negative goal differences, suggesting a balanced contest.
🚩 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 4.3 for Ham-Kam, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 51% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sarpsborg 08 FFlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ham-Kamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Sarpsborg 08 FF are on a four-match unbeaten league run, with three wins and a draw, conceding just two goals in that stretch. Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have not won any of their last five away league matches, but have scored in every one, with their last two league outings ending in a 2-2 draw and a 1-4 home defeat.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam
Sarpsborg have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning five of the last ten and posting a 4-0 home win in 2025. However, Ham-Kam have scored in seven of those ten meetings and famously won 7-1 away in 2024, showing the fixture can produce high scores and surprises.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins
3
Draws
1
Ham-Kam wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be formally calculated. However, the model's probabilities suggest the strongest statistical lean is towards both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, given the underlying rates. If market odds for BTTS or over 2.5 are above 1.70, they would likely represent value based on these projections.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies may distort short-term form signals.
- ⚠️Ham-Kam's away sample is only five league matches.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Ham-KamThe model projects a 2-1 win for Sarpsborg 08 FF, driven by Ham-Kam's poor away defensive record (2.2 goals conceded per away game) and the consistent BTTS trend in both teams' recent fixtures. The main risk is Ham-Kam's attack, which has scored in every away league match, making a 2-2 draw or a late equaliser plausible.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam: Common Questions
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
The model gives Sarpsborg a 43% chance of victory, with a 32% probability for a draw and 25% for a Ham-Kam win. Home advantage and defensive rates slightly favour Sarpsborg, but the contest is statistically close.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
There is a 62% probability that both teams will score, supported by Ham-Kam's BTTS record (5/5 in their last five) and Sarpsborg's modest clean sheet rate (23%).
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
The chance of over 2.5 goals is 58%, reflecting Ham-Kam's high-scoring away matches (3.6 goals per game) and both sides' defensive vulnerabilities.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.