Fulham vs Hull City Predictions
Premier League · England
Fulham
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Hull City
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.9(+33% edge)
Match Result
6.9/10Fulham Edge Past Hull in Dominant Display Despite Red Card Drama
Fulham secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Hull City at Craven Cottage, overcoming a late red card and making their dominance count. The hosts controlled proceedings from the outset, boasting a commanding 76% possession and peppering Hull's goal with 18 shots, six of which were on target. Their persistence paid off in the 33rd minute, when Gonzalo García found the net to give Fulham a deserved lead. Hull City, set up in a defensive 5-4-1 formation, struggled to create opportunities, failing to register a single shot on target from their five attempts. Despite Fulham going down to ten men in the second half, the visitors couldn't capitalize, and the home side held firm to claim all three points. The result reflects Fulham's control and Hull's inability to threaten, even with a numerical advantage late on.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
33' — Goal
Gonzalo García scores to put Fulham ahead after sustained pressure.
Second Half' — Red Card
Fulham reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum and forcing a defensive stance.
Full Time' — Final Whistle
Fulham see out the win despite being a man down.
Fulham
Fulham produced a dominant performance, dictating the tempo with 76% possession and relentless attacking intent. Their 18 shots and 11 corners showcased their offensive pressure, and they were rewarded with a well-taken goal by Gonzalo García in the first half. Even after being reduced to ten men, Fulham managed the game intelligently, limiting Hull's threat and maintaining composure under pressure. The midfield pairing of Sander Berge and Shea Charles provided control and stability, while Oscar Bobb and Alex Iwobi offered creativity in advanced areas. The red card threatened to derail their efforts, but Fulham's organization and discipline ensured the narrow lead was preserved.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hull City
Hull City set out to frustrate Fulham with a defensive 5-4-1 setup but offered little going forward, failing to register a shot on target. Their 24% possession and just two corners reflected a reactive approach, and they struggled to transition into attack even after Fulham were reduced to ten men. The defensive line, marshaled by S. Ajayi and J. Egan, resisted well for long spells but ultimately couldn't prevent García's first-half strike. Hull's midfield was overrun, and O. McBurnie was left isolated up front, starved of service throughout.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Fulham lined up in a 4-2-3-1, using their double pivot to control possession and build attacks patiently. The wide players, Oscar Bobb and Alex Iwobi, stretched Hull's compact 5-4-1, creating space for García to exploit. Fulham's full-backs, particularly Antonee Robinson, pushed high to support attacks, resulting in a flurry of corners and sustained pressure. Hull City's defensive block was organized, but their lack of ambition going forward was evident. Even after Fulham's red card, Hull failed to adjust tactically, maintaining a defensive posture and rarely committing numbers forward. Fulham's shift to a more compact shape after the sending off ensured they protected their lead, with midfielders dropping deeper to shield the back line.
Turning Point
The red card in the second half forced Fulham to retreat and defend their lead, but Hull's inability to capitalize ensured the hosts held on.
Man of the Match
Gonzalo García
Scored the match-winning goal and led the line with energy and intelligence.
Fulham vs Hull City: Match Preview
Fulham enter this fixture under pressure, still searching for their first league win after five matches and sitting 19th in the table. Despite averaging 14 shots per game in their last five, Marco Silva's side have often lacked a clinical edge, drawing blanks in two matches and conceding eight goals already. Hull, by contrast, have made an assured start, sitting 8th with two wins and two draws, and have proven particularly stubborn on their travels, conceding just four goals across three away games.
The tactical contrast is clear: Fulham dominate possession (53.6% average) and rack up corners (5.2 per game), but Hull's disciplined 5-4-1 setup has frustrated stronger sides, as seen in a 2-2 draw at Chelsea and a 1-0 win at Coventry. Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 60% of their league matches, and Hull's last five outings average just 1.8 total goals. Set pieces could play a role, with both sides averaging over five corners per match, but neither has shown a consistent threat from dead balls.
The model expects a cagey contest, with Fulham's home struggles and Hull's defensive organisation cancelling each other out. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw, with a 34% probability for the stalemate and only a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals. Unless Fulham find a sharper edge in attack, their shot volume may again fail to translate into points.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Fulham vs Hull City
The draw stands out as the most significant value, with the model's 34% probability far exceeding the market's 25.6% at odds of 3.90. Under 2.5 goals also offers a positive expected value, with the model rating it 56% versus the market's 47.6%. The home win price looks too short given Fulham's winless start and Hull's defensive solidity, so the market appears to be overestimating the hosts' chances.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fulham vs Hull City(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.95
The model rates the draw at 34% (odds equivalent 2.94), while the market implies just 25.6%. Both sides have drawn two of their last five league games, and Fulham have failed to win at home despite a decent shot output (14 per game last five). Hull's away matches have produced just four goals in total, with two draws from three. The price on the draw is notably generous given both teams' conservative profiles and Fulham's lack of cutting edge.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.1
Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 60% of their league matches so far, and Hull's away games average just 1.33 goals per game. Fulham have failed to score in two of their last five, and Hull have kept two clean sheets in that span. The model gives a 56% chance of under 2.5, above the market's 47.6% implied probability.
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Fulham vs Hull City Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fulham vs Hull City that most previews miss.
- 1The draw is rated a 34% chance by the model, far above the market's 25.6% implied probability at 3.90 odds.
- 2Hull have kept two clean sheets in their last five and have conceded just four goals in three away league fixtures.
- 3Fulham's last three home games have all seen both teams score, but only one produced over 2.5 goals.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Fulham vs Hull City Prediction
Bookmakers have installed Fulham as clear favourites at Craven Cottage, but the data paints a picture of two sides with more in common than the odds suggest. Fulham's winless start and Hull's compact away approach point to a match likely to be decided by fine margins, with the draw undervalued in the market. Both teams have struggled for attacking fluency, and defensive discipline could be the defining feature.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Fulham average 14 shots per game over their last five but have failed to convert dominance into wins.
Defence
- →Hull's away matches average just 1.33 goals per game, with two clean sheets in five overall.
Match Context
- →Fulham have yet to win in the league (0W 2D 3L), while Hull sit 8th with only one defeat.
🚩 Fulham vs Hull City Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Fulham and 5.7 for Hull City, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 51%.
How Fulham and Hull City Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fulham vs Hull City Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fulhamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hull Citylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fulham's recent form is concerning, with no wins in five league matches and just two points collected, despite strong shot and possession numbers at home. Hull, meanwhile, have lost only once in five and have shown a knack for grinding out results, including a gritty away win at Coventry and a draw at Chelsea. Both sides have struggled for goals, but Hull's defensive record gives them a slight edge in momentum.
Fulham vs Hull City — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Strengths
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Fulham vs Hull City
Fulham have dominated the historical head-to-head, winning six of the last ten meetings, including three at Craven Cottage. However, most of those victories came in the Championship or cup competitions several seasons ago, and recent encounters have tended to be low-scoring affairs. The last five meetings have averaged just 2.0 goals per game.
Fulham vs Hull City Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Fulham wins
1
Draws
3
Hull City wins
Things to Watch: Fulham vs Hull City
- ⚠️Early-season sample sizes increase volatility; both teams have new signings and evolving lineups.
- ⚠️Fulham's underlying shot numbers suggest improvement is possible, but finishing has lagged.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but starting XIs are unconfirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fulham 1–1 Hull CityA 1-1 draw is the model's most likely outcome, driven by both teams' inability to convert chances and Hull's defensive resilience on the road. The strongest data point is the high draw probability relative to the odds, making it a standout value play. The biggest risk is Fulham finally finding their finishing touch at home, but their lack of cutting edge so far tempers confidence in a breakthrough.
Fulham vs Hull City: Common Questions
Who will win Fulham vs Hull City?
The model gives Fulham a 38% chance to win, Hull City a 28% chance, and the draw a 34% chance. The odds favour Fulham, but the data suggests the draw is more likely than the market implies.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Fulham vs Hull City?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is rated a 56% probability by the model, compared to the market's 47.6% implied chance at 2.10 odds. Both teams have seen under 2.5 in 60% of their league matches so far.
Why is the draw such a strong value in this match?
Both Fulham and Hull have drawn two of their last five league games, and neither side has shown consistent attacking threat. The model's 34% draw probability is well above the market's 25.6%, making the current odds (3.90) a clear value edge.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fulham vs Hull City: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.