FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia Predictions
UEFA Nations League · World
FYR Macedonia
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Slovenia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.57(+27% edge)
Recommended Bets: FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia
FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia: Match Preview
FYR Macedonia enter this Nations League clash in freefall, having lost all five of their group matches and sitting bottom of the table with zero points and a goal difference of -11. Their only goal in the group came in their most recent outing, a 2-1 defeat away to Scotland, but that solitary strike does little to mask a run of five straight losses and four consecutive games without scoring prior to that. Slovenia, meanwhile, have built real momentum, unbeaten in four of their last five (W2 D2) and sitting second in the group. Their defensive resilience has been the foundation, with three clean sheets and only three goals conceded in five matches, highlighted by a 2-0 win over Macedonia in the reverse fixture.
The tactical matchup is lopsided: Macedonia’s attack has been blunted, averaging just 0.2 goals and 0.6 shots on target per game over their last five, while Slovenia’s defence has been among the group’s best, conceding just 0.6 per game and keeping three clean sheets. Slovenia also edge the set-piece battle, averaging five corners per match compared to Macedonia’s 2.4, and their attack—though not explosive—generates nearly 10 shots per match. Disciplinary records are similar, but Macedonia’s 12.6 fouls per game hint at frustration and a lack of control in midfield.
Given the sharp contrast in form and underlying numbers, the model expects Slovenia to control proceedings, likely breaking through in the second half as Macedonia’s confidence and organisation wane. Unless Slovenia are unusually wasteful in front of goal or the hosts find an unexpected spark, the most plausible outcome is a controlled away win to nil, with Slovenia’s defensive structure and Macedonia’s attacking woes the decisive factors.
How FYR Macedonia and Slovenia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FYR Macedonialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Slovenialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FYR Macedonia’s form has collapsed, with five consecutive defeats and just a single goal scored in that stretch, including back-to-back home losses without scoring. Slovenia, on the other hand, have found their stride, unbeaten in four of five and conceding only three goals in the group. The momentum is firmly with the visitors, who arrive with confidence and a clear defensive identity.
FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia that most previews miss.
- 1FYR Macedonia have failed to score in four of their last five matches, with their only goal coming in the 57th minute of their most recent game.
- 2Slovenia have kept three clean sheets in their last five, conceding just 0.6 goals per match over that run.
- 3The last four H2H meetings have produced under 2.5 goals three times, with only one match seeing both teams score.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.50
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
31%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia Prediction
FYR Macedonia come into this fixture in the midst of a brutal run, having lost all five group matches and scored just once. Slovenia, by contrast, are riding a wave of momentum, unbeaten in four of their last five and boasting three clean sheets in that span. The gulf in recent form is stark, with the visitors’ defensive solidity and ability to grind out results standing in sharp contrast to the hosts’ toothless attack and leaky back line. Statistically, this is a mismatch. Macedonia average just 0.6 shots on target per game over their last five and have failed to find the net in four of those outings. Slovenia, meanwhile, allow only 0.6 goals per game and have conceded just three times in the group. The visitors’ attack is not prolific, but their 9.6 shots and 2.8 on target per match suggest they will create enough to trouble a home side conceding 2.4 per game. Set-piece threat also leans Slovenia’s way, with five corners per match to Macedonia’s 2.4, and the away side’s discipline is slightly better (3 yellows per game to Macedonia’s 2.4, but fewer fouls). Expect Slovenia to play with control and patience, knowing Macedonia’s confidence is at a low ebb and their own defensive platform is reliable. The data points to an away win by a margin, most likely without reply, unless Slovenia’s attack is unusually profligate or the hosts find a rare moment of quality.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Macedonia average only 0.6 shots on target per game in their last five, while Slovenia average 2.8.
Defence
- →FYR Macedonia have lost all five group matches, scoring only once and conceding 12.
- →Slovenia are unbeaten in four of their last five, with three clean sheets and just three goals conceded in that span.
Where the Model Sees Value: FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.58
FYR Macedonia have failed to score in four of their last five matches, averaging just 0.2 goals per game, while Slovenia have kept three clean sheets in their last five and conceded only 0.6 goals per game over that stretch.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Slovenia Win@ 1.61
Slovenia are unbeaten in four of their last five (W2 D2), have the second-best defensive record in the group, and beat FYR Macedonia 2-0 in the reverse fixture; the hosts have lost five straight and failed to score in all but one.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.6
Four of Slovenia’s five Nations League matches have finished under 2.5 goals, and FYR Macedonia have scored just once in the group, with only one of their games going over this line due to their defensive frailty rather than attacking threat.
Read more ↓
More UEFA Nations League Predictions
🚩 FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.2 corners for FYR Macedonia and 4.4 for Slovenia, for an expected total of 7.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 35% · Over 10.5: 15%.
What History Says: FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia
The recent head-to-head record is balanced, with one win each and two draws in the last four meetings, but Slovenia took the most recent encounter 2-0 at home. Three of the last four meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, and only once have both teams found the net.
FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
1
FYR Macedonia wins
2
Draws
1
Slovenia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia
The strongest value edge is on 'BTTS: No', where the model’s 81% probability far exceeds the 63.7% implied by 1.57 odds. There’s also a modest edge on under 2.5 goals, though the price is less generous. The away win is fairly priced, but the market may be underestimating just how blunt Macedonia’s attack has been.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia
- ⚠️FYR Macedonia’s only goal in the group came in their most recent match, suggesting a slight uptick in attack, but the sample remains too small for confidence.
- ⚠️Slovenia’s attack is not high-scoring, so if they struggle to convert chances early, a low-scoring draw is not impossible.
- ⚠️No injuries are reported, but late squad changes could affect lineups and tactical approach.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FYR Macedonia 0–2 SloveniaThe model forecasts a 2-0 win for Slovenia, driven by the extreme divergence in recent form—Macedonia’s five straight losses and near-total lack of attacking threat versus Slovenia’s defensive solidity and unbeaten streak. The main risk lies in Slovenia’s sometimes modest attack, which could make for a nervier, lower-scoring contest if they fail to take their chances early.
FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia: Common Questions
Who will win FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia?
The model gives Slovenia a 65% chance of victory, with Macedonia rated at just 9% and the draw at 26%. This is based on Slovenia’s unbeaten run in four of their last five and Macedonia’s five straight defeats.
Will both teams score in FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia?
Both teams to score is rated at just 19%, with 81% for 'no', reflecting Macedonia’s four blanks in their last five and Slovenia’s three clean sheets in the same period.
Can FYR Macedonia end their losing streak?
The data suggests it’s unlikely—Macedonia have lost all five group matches, scoring just once, while Slovenia are in strong form and beat them 2-0 in the reverse fixture. The model gives Macedonia only a 9% chance of winning.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.