Hungary vs Northern Ireland Predictions
UEFA Nations League · World
Hungary
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Northern Ireland
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.9(+40% edge)
Recommended Bets: Hungary vs Northern Ireland
Hungary vs Northern Ireland: Match Preview
Hungary and Northern Ireland face off with the group lead at stake, both boasting defensive records among the best in the Nations League. Hungary arrive with two wins from their last three, conceding just twice in four group games, while Northern Ireland top the group after four matches without conceding a goal. The standings reflect the razor-thin margin: Northern Ireland lead on 8 points, Hungary just behind on 7, and both have everything to play for with Ukraine lurking in third.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by defensive discipline and low goal expectancy. Hungary average 16.8 shots per game over their last five but have only converted for 1.2 goals per match, and their season average is just 0.75. Northern Ireland's attack is less prolific in terms of volume (10.2 shots, 3.6 on target per game last five) but has produced four goals in two away group matches. Both sides are built on structure: Hungary's last five have produced just two BTTS outcomes, Northern Ireland only one, and under 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of their Nations League fixtures. Set-piece threat is moderate, with Hungary averaging 4.2 corners and Northern Ireland 2.8 per match.
The model expects a tactical, risk-averse contest with few clear-cut chances. The most likely outcome is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline marginally favoured. Under 2.5 goals is a strong statistical play, supported by both teams' defensive records and their recent 0-0 head-to-head. Unless either side is forced to chase late, the underlying rates suggest a tight, low-scoring affair.
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
22%
BTTS: Yes
30%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hungary vs Northern Ireland that most previews miss.
- 1Northern Ireland are yet to concede in the Nations League group (4 clean sheets from 4).
- 2Hungary's last five matches average just 1.8 total goals, with only two BTTS outcomes.
- 3The last head-to-head finished 0-0, with both teams combining for just four shots on target.
Who do you think wins: Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hungary vs Northern Ireland(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.4
The model assigns a 36% probability to the draw, well above the 25.6% implied by the market. Both sides have drawn a combined 3 of their 8 Nations League matches, and their last head-to-head finished 0-0.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.57
Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of 4 Nations League matches (75%), and their combined goals conceded is just 2 in 8 games. The model's 78% probability for under 2.5 is a strong edge over the market.
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More UEFA Nations League Predictions
The Case For This Hungary vs Northern Ireland Prediction
This is a statistical stalemate between two of the Nations League's most defensively disciplined sides. Hungary have conceded just twice in four group matches, while Northern Ireland have yet to allow a single goal, collecting four clean sheets and two away wins. The group table has Hungary in second (7 points, +1 GD) and Northern Ireland top (8 points, +4 GD), so a low-risk approach is likely with qualification on the line. The matchup is defined by defensive structure and limited attacking output. Hungary average just 0.75 goals scored per game in the Nations League, despite averaging 16.8 shots per match over their last five. Northern Ireland's attack is even more conservative in possession (33.2% last five) but has been ruthlessly effective away, scoring four in two group away games. Both teams' defensive records are reflected in the low BTTS (Hungary 2/4, NI 1/4) and under 2.5 (both 75%) rates. Corners and cards are moderate, with Hungary drawing 4.2 corners and 2.6 yellows per game recently. Given the underlying rates, the model expects a cagey contest with limited big chances and a high probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with under 2.5 goals a clear statistical favourite. The draw is the value play, given both teams' incentive to avoid defeat and their recent head-to-head (0-0 in September).
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Hungary average just 0.75 goals scored per game in the Nations League, despite high shot volume.
Defence
- →Northern Ireland have not conceded in four group matches (season clean sheet rate 100%).
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 75% of group matches.
🚩 Hungary vs Northern Ireland Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Hungary and 3 for Northern Ireland, for an expected total of 8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 41% · Over 10.5: 18%.
How Hungary and Northern Ireland Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hungarylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Northern Irelandlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hungary come in with momentum from back-to-back wins, including a 2-1 victory away to Ukraine, but have scored only three times in four group matches. Northern Ireland are unbeaten in the group, with two away wins and two home draws, and have yet to concede a goal. Both sides are defensively solid but limited in attack, as reflected in their recent low-scoring results.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Hungary vs Northern Ireland
The recent head-to-head history is tight: Hungary are unbeaten in two meetings, winning 1-0 in 2022 and drawing 0-0 away in September. Both encounters finished under 2.5 goals, and neither side has scored more than once in this fixture over the last four years.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Hungary wins
1
Draws
0
Northern Ireland wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hungary vs Northern Ireland
The model identifies the draw at 3.9 as the standout value, with a 36% model probability versus a 25.6% market implied chance. Under 2.5 goals at 1.57 is also a value play, with a 78% model probability compared to a 63.7% market implied. Both bets are supported by the underlying defensive rates and recent head-to-head data.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hungary vs Northern Ireland
- ⚠️Small sample size (4 group games each) increases variance in defensive/attacking rates.
- ⚠️If either side chases a late winner due to group permutations, the game could open up unexpectedly.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are unknown at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hungary 1–1 Northern IrelandThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' exceptional defensive records—Northern Ireland's 100% clean sheet rate and Hungary's 0.5 goals conceded per game. The strongest data point is the 75% under 2.5 goal rate for both sides in the group. The main risk is that a late goal, driven by group permutations or a set-piece, tips the balance either way.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland: Common Questions
Who will win Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
The model gives Hungary a 37% chance of victory, Northern Ireland 27%, and the draw 36%. Both teams have strong defensive records, and the last meeting ended 0-0, so the draw is the likeliest outcome.
Will Hungary vs Northern Ireland be under or over 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured at 78% probability, as both teams have seen three of four group games finish under this line and have combined for just two goals conceded in eight matches.
Will both teams score in Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Both teams to score is rated at 41%, with 'no' the favourite at 59%. Northern Ireland have kept four straight clean sheets, while Hungary have failed to score in two of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hungary vs Northern Ireland: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Hungary vs Northern Ireland Resources
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results