Georgia vs Hungary Predictions
UEFA Nations League · World
Georgia
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Hungary
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.67(+30% edge)
Recommended Bets: Georgia vs Hungary
Georgia vs Hungary: Match Preview
Georgia enter this home tie rooted to the bottom of their Nations League group, having failed to score in four group matches and drawn a blank in four of their last five overall. Their defensive organisation has kept them in games—three clean sheets in the last five—but a blunt attack has left them with just two points and no wins. Hungary, conversely, have momentum from back-to-back wins including a 2-1 away victory at Ukraine, and sit second in the group with seven points from four.
The tactical battle is defined by Georgia’s deep, compact shape (conceding just 0.4 goals per game in the last five) against a Hungary side that create plenty but often lack a clinical edge. Hungary’s 16.8 shots per match in their last five is among the best in the group, but they have scored only three in four group games, and their away matches have averaged just 1.5 total goals. Georgia’s home matches have been similarly tight, with a 0-1 loss and a 0-0 draw so far. Set pieces and discipline could play a role: both sides average over four corners per game, and Hungary’s 2.6 yellow cards per match suggests a physical contest.
The model expects a low-scoring, attritional encounter, with Hungary’s attacking volume likely to edge the balance but Georgia’s defensive resilience keeping things close. The most probable scenario is a 1-0 away win or a goalless draw, with under 2.5 goals and BTTS 'no' both offering value. The draw price is also attractive given Georgia’s tendency to hold stronger sides at home.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Georgia vs Hungary
The model identifies the biggest value in opposing goals: BTTS 'no' and under 2.5 goals are both strong edges versus the market, reflecting the data’s low-scoring bias. The draw also stands out as slightly overpriced, while the market’s short price on Hungary does not fully account for Georgia’s defensive resilience at home.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Georgia vs Hungary(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.76
Georgia have failed to score in all four Nations League matches (0 goals, 4 failed to score in last 5), while Hungary have conceded just twice in four group games. The model gives a 78% chance of at least one side blanking, well above the 59.9% implied by the odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.48
Only one of these teams’ combined eight group matches has gone over 2.5 goals (12.5%), and both average under a goal scored per game. Model probability for under 2.5 goals is 82% versus 67.6% implied by the market.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.1
Georgia have drawn two of four group games (including 0-0 at home to Ukraine), and Hungary’s away record is solid but not dominant (1W 1D). The model sees a 36% draw chance, compared to 31.3% implied by the odds.
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Georgia vs Hungary Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Georgia vs Hungary that most previews miss.
- 1Georgia have failed to score in all four Nations League matches, despite averaging 8 shots per game.
- 2Only one of these teams’ combined eight group games has gone over 2.5 goals (12.5%).
- 3Hungary have averaged 16.8 shots per game in their last five matches, but just 1.2 goals scored.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.55
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
18%
BTTS: Yes
25%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Georgia vs Hungary Prediction
Hungary arrive in Tbilisi as clear market favourites, but the data paints a more nuanced picture: while Hungary’s recent run (WWDLW) and away win at Ukraine stand out, Georgia’s defensive organisation has kept them competitive, even as their attack has failed to fire. The market’s short price on Hungary (2.4) may be overstating their edge, especially given Georgia’s tendency to grind out draws and keep games tight at home. Statistically, this is a clash between a misfiring Georgian frontline (0 goals in four group matches, 0.4 xG per game) and a Hungarian side that creates plenty (16.8 shots per game) but often struggles to turn dominance into goals (just 3 scored in four group games). Georgia’s defensive metrics are robust—three clean sheets in their last five, and just two goals conceded in the group. Hungary, for their part, have shown more attacking intent but are not prolific, and have failed to score in two of their last five. The model expects a cagey affair, with Hungary controlling more of the play but finding chances hard to come by against a deep Georgian block. With both teams averaging under a goal conceded per match and a combined 12.5% over 2.5 goal rate, the likeliest outcome is a low-scoring contest decided by a single moment or set piece. The value lies in opposing goals and backing at least one side to blank, with the draw also offering a bigger edge than backing the away win at current prices.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Hungary average 16.8 shots per game in their last five, but have scored only three in four group games.
Match Context
- →Georgia have failed to score in all four Nations League group matches.
- →Combined, these teams have seen just one match from eight go over 2.5 goals in the group.
🚩 Georgia vs Hungary Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Georgia and 4.2 for Hungary, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Georgia and Hungary Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Georgia vs Hungary Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Georgialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Hungarylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Georgia’s recent form is defined by defensive solidity but a total lack of cutting edge, with three clean sheets in the last five but only one goal scored (in a friendly). Hungary, meanwhile, have found some rhythm with two wins and a draw from their last three, including an impressive away win at Ukraine, and have shown more attacking intent despite modest scoring returns.
Georgia vs Hungary — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
What History Says: Georgia vs Hungary
These sides have met only once recently, with Hungary winning 1-0 at home in October while dominating the shot count. There’s no evidence of a high-scoring rivalry, and the only prior meeting suggests Hungary’s edge is marginal rather than overwhelming.
Georgia vs Hungary Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Georgia wins
0
Draws
1
Hungary wins
Things to Watch: Georgia vs Hungary
- ⚠️Georgia’s attack has underperformed its shot numbers at home; a regression to the mean could see them finally score.
- ⚠️Hungary’s shot volume is high, but if finishing variance swings their way, the match could open up unexpectedly.
- ⚠️With both teams still in contention for group positions, late tactical shifts could affect goal or card totals.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Georgia 0–1 HungaryThe model projects a tight, low-scoring match with Hungary narrowly favoured for a 1-0 win, underpinned by Georgia’s inability to find the net in the group thus far. The strongest data point is Georgia’s four consecutive blanks in competitive fixtures, making BTTS 'no' and under 2.5 goals the standout angles. The biggest risk is Hungary converting their high shot volume into a more decisive win, or Georgia finally breaking their scoring drought at home.
Georgia vs Hungary: Common Questions
Who will win Georgia vs Hungary?
Hungary are the model’s slight favourites with a 42% win probability, but the draw is also well in play at 36%. Georgia’s win chance is just 22%, reflecting their struggles in front of goal and Hungary’s recent form.
Will both teams score in Georgia vs Hungary?
The model gives just a 22% chance of both teams scoring, with 78% for 'no', driven by Georgia’s four straight group blanks and Hungary’s solid defensive record (0.5 conceded per game).
Is there value in betting the draw or under 2.5 goals?
Yes, the draw (model 36% vs odds-implied 31%) and under 2.5 goals (model 82% vs 68%) both offer clear value edges according to the data, reflecting the low-scoring, cagey nature of both teams’ recent matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Georgia vs Hungary: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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